Things are going badly for the Ducks. They’ve lost seven of their last eight games. On Thursday night, they surrendered a four-goal lead, losing in overtime to the Florida Panthers. Their fearless leader, Ryan Getzlaf, is 34 years old and no longer a point-a-game player. But in a way Anaheim can see the glass half full when viewing the standings because the West seems to be mediocre and top-heavy, almost embarrassingly so.

Sure, the Ducks are struggling, but they can glance around their division and see the Flames floundering, Sharks ossifying, and Golden Knights underachieving. Last time I checked, at least three teams from the division automatically qualify for the postseason! Heck, if Anaheim finishes with 82 points, they may even qualify for a Wild Card spot, since the Central Division is showing itself to be even weaker than last year. But what makes Saturday’s matchup so tasty is that the Lightning and Ducks are wading into unfamiliar waters. Uncharacteristically, the Lightning may be the team trying to make this a low-event game, and the Ducks are the squad eager to open it up.

In terms of high-danger chances per 60 minutes, the Ducks concede a lot (they rank 23rd in high-danger chances against) but they also produce in bulk, ranking sixth in high-danger chances for. The Lightning are the opposite. They rank 8th in high-danger chances allowed, but only 18th in chances generated. Moreover, since the calendar flipped to November, the Lightning are second best in the NHL in high-danger chances allowed. The Lightning are getting stingier. The Bolts have quit the bohemian lifestyle and gotten a 9-5 job. Maybe it’s the vestiges of the Randy Carlyle era(s), but I don’t normally associate the Ducks with a glut of chances on both ends.

Layman hockey fans may see the Lightning ranked third in both goals per game and power-play percentage and think this is the Tampa Bay of last season. But really the Bolts’ nine goals against the Rangers inflated their goals per game. Tampa Bay is less explosive and plays much more of a territorial, forechecking game. They have less odd-man rushes than they did last season, but at the same time, in 2018-19, the Lightning were on the fringes of the top 10 in both high-danger chances for and allowed. Interestingly, more discipline hasn’t totally translated to more possession time, as the Lightning are currently right below 50 percent in controlling shot attempts.

The Lightning are currently ranked 10th in expected goals (xG) for per 60 minutes at 5v5, but without Kucherov and Stamkos, scoring is going to be harder to come by. Fortunately, the Ducks are 29th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. In the implosion against the Panthers, Anaheim kept tight gaps and played good defensive hockey for nearly two periods. And then a good plan went kaput. A horrendous turnover by Michael Del Zotto led to the first strike. But the subsequent three goals were breakdowns in defensive coverage. Like most meltdowns when the viewer doesn’t have a stake in the outcome, it was simultaneously painful and thrilling to watch.

The Ducks can try to hide Brendan Guhle and Erik Gudbranson with Cam Fowler and Josh Mahura, respectively, but Tampa Bay can try to put the former two defensemen in retrieving opportunities on the forecheck. The Lightning are familiar with Gudbranson from when he used to be in the division, so they know his capabilities, or lack thereof. His lumbering gait will be a welcome sight for the Bolts’ top-six forwards. On the fourth Panther goal, by Dominic Toninato, Gudbranson let Toninato get to the inside and watched as Aaron Ekblad passed the puck through the crease.



One of the most interesting dimensions of tonight’s matchup will be how the Lightning power play looks against the Ducks if they are without Kucherov and Stamkos. The Ducks have a subpar penalty kill, and watching Point operate from Kucherov’s spot on the right circle was different. Without Kucherov’s heavy shot, Point was more eager to roam around. The set play he ran last night with Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson—Point shot it into Killorn’s stick along the goal line, and Killorn bumped it to Johnson in the slot for the quick release—had a new look, which left Chicago unprepared. Sometimes, the greatness of Kucherov and Stamkos’s shots can leave the power play stationary. With Point as the fulcrum, the Lightning power play had a more frenetic feel.

The Ducks won’t be a pushover, and they are likely bitter after their humiliating defeat in Sunrise. The Lightning are seeking consistency, and along with a positive impact from the depth forwards, that will come if Point, Ondrej Palat, and Tyler Johnson exert their will. What we know is that Anaheim will offer them chances. The Lightning just need to capitalize.

Join the Discussion: » 5 Comments » Post New Comment

» Verhaeghe's Role if Stamkos is Sidelined

» Stamkos's Linemates Should Feed Him in the Crease

» Three Personal Goals for the Grinders

» How COVID Could Test the Bolts' Depth

» What Happens to Cooper If TB Loses