In the past few years, not many teams have had more vexing results than the Philadelphia Flyers. This seems to be a team that normally has a rough start and then will go on a bit of a tear in the second half of the season. When things aren’t going well, it’s difficult to fathom how a team with Giroux, Voracek, Van Riemsdyk (when healthy), Couturier (greatly under appreciated) can struggle offensively. In the past few years, it would seem that goaltending was typically the Achilles heel. Pure stats analysts separate the play of the goalie and the scoring of the forward. They tend to view the two as 200 feet apart and more distant than that as being relevant. For those who watch the game, there are two known factors that turn everything on its head. Goaltending and momentum. When a team gets the first, they tend to find the second.
This year, the Flyers find themselves in a wild card spot at Thanksgiving. Although that litmus test is no longer considered “relevant”, it is at least indicative of a team finding more early season success than in years prior. Both Flyers goalies are posting SV% at or above .900 and GAA of under 3. Those numbers may not “wow” anyone, but they clearly point to solid, not spectacular, goaltending. Something the Flyers teams have been desperate for.
Turning to the Red Wings, Wednesday’s debacle against Toronto saw an on ice punishment for the goaltenders. The Leafs were dominant on the forecheck netting 2 quick goals, and then a third as Jimmy Howard went down (but didn’t stay down to get a whistle) with an injury. I doubt that Tavares felt good about that sequence later on, but you play to the whistle and he scored a beautiful wrist shot. Replacing Howard was the flu ridden Bernier, who gave his all. Toronto scored three more tallies but the effort in net was noteworthy. Most of us going down in the butterfly with a stomach bug would leave a lot more than our effort on the ice. Kudos to the battler in Bernier.
Philadelphia has near double the standings points as Detroit (in 2 fewer games) with 31. Detroit sits at the bottom with 17 and a 7-17-3 record. (Philly at 13-7-5). In the special teams realm, Detroit still sits at the bottom in PK(31st) at 72.6% and 28th on the PP at 13.6% for a special teams total of 86.2%. Philly has a a top notch (3rd in the league) PK at 85.9% and a very good (11th) PP% of 19.8 for a special teams total of 105.7%. A Scotty Bowman approved rating of over 100 is indicative of a club doing the right things on special teams. Detroit sits 31st in both GAA (3.82) and GF (2.18) while the Flyers are 17th in GF (2.88) and 8th in GAA (2.76) posting a .12 positive differential to Detroit’s -1.7. If the stats determined a game, Philly wins by 2 at 3-1 or 4-2.
Luckily, players, not stats, are competing tonight. Detroit has a terrible track record in Philadelphia. Since winning their first Stanley Cup in over 40 years in 1997, the regular season series against the Flyers on their home ice has not been kind. However, this is the type of game that this current group of Red Wings “gets up” for. As with Boston and Vegas, everything points to another loss tonight. For some reason, the Red Wings tend to prepare better for these type of contests. With a large Maple Leaf shaped chip on their shoulder and a day to baste in the brine of home ice humiliation (couldn’t resist at least one Thanksgiving metaphor) this team is set to be hangry.
In every game, the most realistic hope for this group surrounds effort. You can’t change past results, but you can learn from them. The approach is either that of a losing team trying to get a win, or a team of potential champions trying to alter course. When a team hits rock bottom, you have to ignore the numbers and focus on the next shift. And, consequently, only the next shift. Our inability to control either the past or future continues to confound humanity. However, lessons learned from the past can alter present actions and increase probability of better future results. C=E*W, Change is equal to effort enhanced by Wisdom. Wisdom is the ability to apply knowledge. At this point, Detroit has accumulated a good deal of knowledge on the subject of costly mistakes. Applied to a solid work ethic this could become and invaluable tool for the future of this franchise.
This could be, and should be, an exciting match. The Flyers always have emotion in spades, and Detroit should have it today. Detroit is best served, again, by avoiding any penalties. The man advantage will have its hands full against a potent penalty kill. However, it has a far greater chance of success than the current state of Detroit’s PK. Larkin is a passionate leader. Once in a while, that passion is met with 2 minutes or less to reflect upon his execution. The ability to harness passion and fury and walk the line without crossing it is one that will do all of our young players well to gain. With the right balance, solid goaltending, and a bit of puck luck the Red Wings may surprise their fans, and opponents, in this contest.
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