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Here are five things to watch when the New Jersey Devils take on the New York Rangers:
1. Stoppable force vs movable object
New Jersey’s offense is not good. Despite all the personnel moves they made in an effort to change that, the Devils sit 30th in both shot and chance generation at 5v5. Sustaining pressure in the offensive zone has been an issue all season long and the numbers certainly bear that out. Luckily, they have just the cure: a game against the Rangers.
New York’s defense is putrid. No team is allowing shot attempts, chances, high-danger chances, or expected goals at a higher rate than the Rangers. It’s a clean sweep across the board. While New Jersey’s attack, for the most part, has been as threatening as a golden retriever puppy, New York has a habit of making offenses look a lot better than they are.
We’ll see if the Devils, who have scored 13 goals over the last three, can take advantage.
2. The Goose is on the loose
It took longer than anyone would have hoped but Nikita Gusev is *really* starting to find his footing offensively. His usage has increased in recent weeks, as have his outputs. No. 97 registered five points, all of which came at 5v5, and 23 shots on goal over the last six games. As a result, Gusev’s scoring rate is up to 3.08 points per 60 minutes. That’s good for 10th among all NHL forwards with 200+ minutes of ice, mostly behind true superstars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and the like.
Finding the ideal fit for Gusev was tough – though you want to get him steady ice, you have to protect him defensively – but John Hynes seems to have done so.
In ~66 minutes playing alongside Travis Zajac and Blake Coleman, this trio has controlled 55.74% of the scoring chances, 52.65% of the expected goals, and out-scored opponents by a pair.
I think Gusev, and the line as a whole, has a good chance of staying hot vs this Rangers team.
3. Back on track
Heading into the year, I think most would agree Taylor Hall and Nico Hischier were going to be the two best forwards on the team and their production would match accordingly. That hasn’t necessarily been the case, especially at 5v5.
Neither player has scored a goal in that gamestate over the last 10 games. At times, it’s been really frustrating to watch. There is some silver lining, though.
Over those 10 games, Hall and Hischier rank 1st and 2nd on the Devils in scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances. They’re atop the board in terms of efficiency as well. They’re not just getting looks due to steady ice time.
It’s only a matter of time before they start converting again. A date vs a bad defensive team in a B2B situation could be just the spot to do it.
4. Target P3
There’s bad defense, and then there’s whatever it is Anthony DeAngelo and Libor Hajek are providing the Rangers right now. They’ve spent ~an hour together and the returns are astonishingly bad. That duo owns a 36.92 CF%, 37.50 GF%, and 31.50 xGF%. Opposing teams are generating more than 36 scoring chances, over 20 of which are Grade As, against this pairing on a per 60 basis. I know I’m not exactly going out on a limb to say the Devils should get their top guys out against another team’s 3rd pairing but, man, the top-6 could really make some noise if they get that matchup with any sort of consistency.
5. Don’t be picky
Generally speaking, it can be hard to take shots from a distance. You feel like you’re just wasting possessions. Understandably so – there is some truth to that in many cases. Alexander Georgiev is not somebody you need to overthink against, though. 50 goaltenders have logged at least 400 minutes of ice this season. Only four of them have a further average goal against distance. Put another way, teams haven’t had much trouble scoring on him from well out. The Devils need to generate significantly more shots to begin with so if they have a decent look at the net, they shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger – even from range. It’s not like the only way to beat Georgiev is from the slot.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
** did not practice on Friday
Taylor Hall - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Blake Coleman - Travis Zajac - Nikita Gusev
Jesper Boqvist - Jack Hughes** - Wayne Simmonds
Miles Wood - Pavel Zacha - Jesper Bratt
Sami Vatanen - P.K. Subban
Andy Greene - Damon Severson
Will Butcher - Matt Tennyson
Mackenzie Blackwood/Louis Domingue
New York
Chris Kreider - Mika Zibanejad - Pavel Buchnevich
Artemi Panarin - Filip Chytil - Ryan Strome
Brendan Lemieux - Brett Howden - Kaapo Kakko
Jesper Fast - Boo Nieves - Brendan Smith
Brady Skjei - Jacob Trouba
Ryan Lindgren - Adam Fox
Libor Hajek - Anthony DeAngelo
Alexander Georgiev
Puck drop is just after 1:00 p.m. and can be seen on MSG, MSG+, and NHLN.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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