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J-G Pageau and the Coyle Comparable

November 30, 2019, 10:31 AM ET [23 Comments]
Michael Stuart
Ottawa Senators Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Perhaps the biggest decision for the Ottawa Senators this year is whether to re-sign or trade J-G Pageau. As rumors about Pageau’s status continue to swirl, the Boston Bruins may have just provided some clarity with respect to the cost to re-sign a player like him in today’s NHL:

The name to focus on there is Charlie Coyle, the proud owner of a brand new six-year, $31.5M deal. Of note: Players that re-sign with their current team midway through the year are typically leaving money on the table compared to what they could command on July 1, too. It’s a sign that hockey has come a long way, because the thought of a career, 40-point player signing a deal worth more than $5M annually would have been crazy a decade ago. This isn’t your father’s/mother's NHL anymore.

Coyle’s new deal likely provides Pageau with a decent comparable for negotiation purposes. Both are viewed as fitting in that “3C” role, both are local favorites, and both hit the market at the same time.

More significant than those soft factors, though, is a comparison of their recent and respective individual performance. Consider the following five-on-five data, which includes all action from 2017-18 onward:


It’s obvious that Pageau is at least in Coyle’s neighborhood. The on-ice, relative impact at five-on-five comparison tells a further story:

Pageau’s impact on the Senators has, at least in the last two-plus years, been more significant than Coyle’s on the Bruins and Wild. Of course, some of that is attributable to the strength of the teammates around each of the players – i.e. if you’re playing with better players, your ability to have a positive relative impact is diminished – but local “value” is undoubtedly something that will come up in any contract negotiation. Pageau’s value to the Senators is clear.

Whether Pageau re-signs with the Senators or is traded as part of the rebuild, it’s obvious that Coyle’s new deal has set a sort of benchmark for his negotiation. If that’s the price, and term, required to keep him in Ottawa, the Senators would almost certainly be better off exploring the trade market.

As always, thanks for reading.
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