A common refrain heard throughout the hockey world is that teams struggle to stay engaged or emotionally invested in early day games. Nobody was saying that after today’s bout (quite literally) between the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers. When all the fireworks were said and done, the end result was another well-played loss for the Sens. It’s hard to ask for much more from a rebuilding team.
Rather than provide the typical ‘thumbs’ recap, which would be dominated by Anthony Duclair’s scoring prowess and Brady Tkachuk’s innate ability to live rent free in the minds of opposing fans, this blog is going to focus on a bigger picture question: Is Anthony Duclair too good for this Senators team to keep?
Of course, it was Duclair’s two-goal performance against the Flyers that spawned the idea for this blog. With those tallies, he now has 13 goals in 30 games this season; a quick bit of basic arithmetic suggests that he is currently on pace for a 35-plus goal season. For a player who has only hit the 20-goal mark once in his career, back in 2015-16, this kind of production is wildly unprecedented. When you combine it with the fact that Duclair is currently playing on a one-year deal paying him $1.65M, it’s quite apparent that he’s been one of the league’s better bargains this season.
The first question that naturally follows from aforementioned numbers is, of course, whether or not the production is sustainable. Per NHL.com, Duclair is currently converting on his shots at a rate of 13.8%, which is only slightly above his career average of 13.2%. There’s nothing out of the ordinary there. However, a look at the isolated five-on-five play per Natural Stat Trick suggests that Duclair may be benefiting at least a little bit from Lady Luck.
To illustrate that point, consider the following: Between 2016-17 and 2018-19, Duclair’s individual five-on-five shooting percentage was 10.21%. That number rises to 14.52% this season, which ranks 32nd out of the 289 players who have suited up for at least 350 five-on-five minutes. Further, Natural Stat Trick’s model shows him as having generated just over six expected five-on-five goals this year, compared to the nine he’s actually potted.
None of that is to suggest that out performing expected goal numbers is impossible - in fact, many elite goal scorers in the game consistently do it – but it does tell us that present-day Anthony Duclair is performing like a different player than the Duclair of yesteryear. Is it solely a function of luck, or has he developed into the player that the New York Rangers, Arizona Coyotes, and Columbus Blue Jackets thought he could be at one point or another? It’s probably the case that the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
So, what does that mean for the Senators? It’s clear that Duclair has done enough to warrant a continuing NHL career once his single-campaign contract expires. Whether that’s in Ottawa or elsewhere, the price tag on that next deal could be high if he continues to convert like he has so far this year. Should it be Ottawa committing those dollars and cents? The easy answer is ‘yes’. Since being acquired, Duclair has been a really positive story for an organization that has lacked them. He works hard. He moves his feet. He’s consistently among the most entertaining players on the ice. Simply, he looks like a player who could contribute with the Senators for many years into the future.
But, it’s those same factors that could very well make him an attractive target for a contending team at the deadline. If the organization is of the belief that there’s likely to be some regression in his game and shooting percentage, it might make sense to explore the marketplace rather than commit to a longer-term contract during a rebuild.
If Duclair had been good but not great to this point in the season, the conversation here would be a lot different. It’s unlikely that the trade market would be all that hot for a player who has bounced around, even if he was having a moderately nice season. Plus, re-signing good, young players never hurts. The difference, though, is that he’s been so unbelievably good. If you’re the Senators, are you betting that he can keep it up and committing to a new contract, or are you looking to cash in with his value at its apparent peak?
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