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In this edition of the hotstove we share our midseason Norris Trophy picks.
Todd Cordell
Roman Josi.
Nashville’s captain leads all defenders in goals, scoring chances, and is 2nd to only John Carlson in points. No player on the Predators bests Josi in any of those categories. He is doing everything for them.
What I think really separates Josi from Carlson, for example, is on-ice impact. The Predators control 55.18% of the shot attempts, 57.98% of the expected goals, and have out-scored opponents by 23(!) with Josi on the ice at 5v5.
All of his relative numbers are through the roof as well. The Predators’ expected goal share is nearly 10% higher with Josi, and their actual goal share is almost 18% higher.
It’s a much different story with Carlson. The Capitals barely control more than 50% of the attempts and expected goals when he’s out there and his on-ice goal differential is a much less remarkable +7.
Carlson is really good, of course, but the Caps’ goal share is only 4.44% higher with him as opposed to without, and he has actually negatively impacted their shot and chance shares.
Carlson piles up the points like no other but Josi is in the same ballpark, at least, and his on-ice measurables are better – often significantly – across the board.
It’s also worth noting Josi has been good at suppressing chances and goals while the Caps give up less without Carlson on the ice. That seems relevant for an award given to the defenseman who shows the best all-round ability.
James Tanner
So far this season the Norris Trophy is John Carlson's to lose. He is 12th in 5v5 scoring and 10th in total scoring. His peripheral stats aren't the best, but when you're scoring this much, I'm not sure it matters. The results have been insane, and he's the #1 defenseman on the league's best team. Might not last, but if the season ended today, he would win in a landslide.
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