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Here are five things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Minnesota Wild:
1. Where offense goes to die
These two teams met prior to Christmas and it was a low-scoring (3-0), low-event game with very few chances traded. I think we’re heading for more of the same tonight.
The Wild don’t generate many opportunities and they give up absolutely nothing. Even though they’ve only won five of the last 10 games, their defense has been completely dialled in. They’ve allowed just 1.86 expected goals per 60 at 5v5, which is only .02 behind Boston for best in the NHL during that span.
They are clearly playing great team defense, Bruce Boudreau has the ability to control matchups, and they’re in the latter half of a back-to-back. That will only add incentive to stay structured and play this game at a snail’s pace.
Barring poor netminding, I wouldn’t expect many goals in this one.
2. Picking up the slack
As solid as the Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, and Andrew Mangiapane trio is, they’re going to have a tough time creating offense tonight. They will undoubtedly see a steady dose of the Jared Spurgeon - Ryan Suter pairing, which continues to be one of the league’s best defensively. They are remarkably only giving up 1.85 xGA and 21.7 chances per 60 minutes despite seeing premium competition.
Realistically speaking, the top line probably won’t be able to accomplish a ton so the Flames will need another unit to step up and contribute. L2 hasn’t been great together (48.21 CF%, 45.73 xGF%) but there is no doubting the raw talent. I’d say they’re Calgary’s best hope.
3. Don’t sleep on Kevin Fiala
He may not yet be a name-brand player but he is ultra-talented and his efficiency numbers are really strong. He’s averaging 2.40 points per 60 this season, which is the same total as Mark Scheifele and more than stars like Mitch Marner, Mathew Barzal, and Mark Stone. His shot generation numbers are through the roof as well. Boudreau isn’t giving him a *ton* of ice – perhaps due to the defense-first mentality his team employs – but Fiala doesn’t need much to put his imprint on the game.
4. Bouncing back
Big Save Dave has had a strong season but he appears to be hitting a bit of a wall. He has allowed at least three goals in six of his last nine starts and conceded seven times on 39 shots over his last two. With the offense rather hit and miss, the Flames need Rittich to get back in form sooner than later. The Wild don’t generate much volume, or quality, so this seems like a good spot to rebound.
5. Be clinical
Only five teams have spent less time shorthanded than Minnesota and four of them have played fewer games. The Wild are a really disciplined team. They’re not going to spoon feed opponents PP opportunities and hand them the game. They’re going to make you beat them at 5v5, which can be difficult and frustrating given how good they are at suppressing chances. The Flames have to be opportunistic. Luckily, Alex Stalock owns a .901 save percentage (below league average) and may afford them that ability.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Andrew Mangiapane
Sean Monahan - Mikael Backlund - Johnny Gaudreau
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Tobias Rieder - Mark Jankowski - Sam Bennett
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Oliver Kylington - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Minnesota
Jordan Greenway - Eric Staal - Mats Zuccarello
Zach Parise - Mikko Koivu - Kevin Fiala
Marcus Foligno - Joel Eriksson Ek - Luke Kunin
Ryan Donato - Victor Rask - Ryan Hartman
Ryan Suter - Jared Spurgeon
Jonas Brodin - Mathew Dumba
Brad Hunt - Carson Soucy
Alex Stalock
Puck drop is just after 7 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SN, FS-N and FS-WI.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
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