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Here are four things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Chicago Blackhawks:
1. Coming to life
With 11 goals and 46 Grade A chances (tied for 3rd most) over the last three games, Calgary’s offense is really starting to wake up. This is a great spot to keep building as Chicago’s defensive play is, in a word, horrendous.
The Blackhawks rank 28th in attempts against, 30th in chances against, and 30th in expected goals against per 60 minutes of 5v5 play. They give up quantity and quality on a nightly basis.
The only reason they’re not at the bottom of the league in goals against is because Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford both have above average numbers at 5v5. They can only do so much though.
With Calgary’s offense showing sparks, and Chicago’s defense in shambles, David Rittich should have plenty of goal support as he works through his struggles.
2. The future is now
Arguably Chicago’s best prospects, Kirby Dach and Adam Boqvist, are both emerging as full-timers. There will be some growing pains, as there is with all youngsters, but they’re really showing some encouraging signs they can help out the established stars – Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Alex DeBrincat – sooner than later.
Dach, who I am quite familiar with as my time doing analytics work with the Saskatoon Blades overlapped his tenure there, was used quite sparingly early in the season but he made the most of his ice and is starting to get more now.
Dach ranks 3rd on Chicago in high-danger chances and is averaging .84 goals per 60 at 5v5, which is more than Steven Stamkos, Kyle Palmieri, Sean Couturier, and Mark Scheifele to name but a few. Obviously he’s not at that level yet but it’s encouraging to see such efficiency from a rookie.
Meanwhile Boqvist ranks 2nd among Blackhawks defenders in Corsi For%, 1st in Scoring Chance For%, and is now playing top pairing and PP1.
Win or lose, I expect them to be two of Chicago’s more influential players in this game.
3. A disaster waiting to happen
The Micheal Stone - Rasmus Andersson pairing, like all pairings featuring the former, is not very good. It is quite bad, in fact.
Calgary has been out-attempted 36-16 (30.77 CF%) and controlled just 25.37% of the expected goals with that duo on the ice.
The sample size is small but given Stone’s shockingly poor results with, well, everyone over the last few years, I doubt things are going to get a whole lot better.
Geoff Ward better do everything in his power to ensure they see as little of Patrick Kane as possible.
4. Activating the defense
I think that was one of the things Calgary did exceptionally well vs Minnesota. The defense was always up in the play and seeking second chance opportunities, which is probably why they generated so many against an otherwise rock solid defensive team.
Realistically speaking, nobody in Calgary’s bottom-6 is a great bet to produce with any sort of frequency. That makes it imperative for the defense to get involved and help create.
Chicago is the furthest thing from a stout defensive team so activating guys and letting Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin, etc. rove could cause quite a bit of confusion.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Matthew Tkachuk - Elias Lindholm - Andrew Mangiapane
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Mikael Backlund
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
Mark Giordano - T.J. Brodie
Noah Hanifin - Travis Hamonic
Michael Stone - Rasmus Andersson
David Rittich
Chicago (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Dominik Kubalik - Jonathan Toews - John Quenneville
Dylan Sikura - Ryan Carpenter - Patrick Kane
Alex DeBrincat - Kirby Dach - Dylan Strome
Zack Smith - David Kampf - Matthew Highmore
Duncan Keith - Adam Boqvist
Erik Gustafsson - Connor Murphy
Olli Maatta - Dennis Gilbert
Corey Crawford
Puck drop is just after 8:30 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SNW and NBCSCH.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Recent posts:
Five observations from a wild win in Minnesota
My choices for Calgary’s three stars of the month in December
Midseason Vezina Trophy picks
Midseason Norris Trophy picks
Midseason Hart Trophy picks
Tkachuk, Giordano named NHL All-Stars
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
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