|
Can the Lightning Take Revenge on the Stars? |
|
|
|
|
|
Hammering a brittle Winnipeg Jets squad 7-1 before taking a nine-day break surely gave the Lightning players a lift as they took their respite. But tomorrow, Tampa Bay returns to the ice against a quirky Dallas Stars squad. Safe to say, things have not gone according to plan for Dallas this season. The numbers for Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are way down. The Joe Pavelski signing looks like an unmitigated disaster. Remember, the veteran signed for a $7M cap hit, but has only produced eight goals and 11 assists in 48 games. The offense has floundered and the Stars are 27th in goals per game.
Nevertheless, the Stars have proven awfully hard to score on. They rank 1st in goals against and are tied for 7th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. In high-danger chances they rank 10th, and they have the best team save percentage in the NHL at 5v5.
The Stars are trying to spin their scoring issues as a recasting of priorities, which sounds plausible, although it is not entirely credible. Tyler Seguin recently told the Dallas Morning News, “Really none of us are scoring at our normal pace. I don’t think there’s a guy on the roster that’s having one of his best offensive numbers. There’s many reasons that could be, but the biggest reason is just our identity, how we want to defend.”
The last time these two squads played was December 19th and the Stars were playing defense for most of the game. The Lightning dominated that contest, but shockingly lost the game 4-3 in overtime. The Lightning had 41 5v5 shots while allowing only 15. The Bolts finished with 17 high-danger chances, tied for the most they have generated this season, along with a 2.71 expected goals for, which ranks 5th on the season for them. But the Stars won because Stars goaltender Anton Khudobin stole the game.
The question for tomorrow night is: Will the start be given to Ben Bishop, the former Lightning goaltender who was traded away and brought Erik Cernak into the Tampa Bay organization? It would be entertaining to see Bishop square off against his old teammates, and Bishop has been excellent this year, posting a .927 save percentage and ranking 5th in goals save above average at 5v5. The Lightning rank 2nd in the NHL since December 1st in terms of high-danger chances per hour, but Bishop has the 4th best high-danger save percentage in the NHL. If he plays, we could be treated to a goaltending duel.
The funny thing about the first Bolts-Stars meeting is that the contest appears to have been a watershed moment for Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasilevskiy allowed four goals on 20 shots and was putrid that night. It was the nadir of a bad stretch of play for Vasilevskiy that went back to the beginning of November. But since that outing, Vasilevskiy has been en fuego. He has a .946 save percentage and 12.48 goals saved above average, ranking 2nd in both categories to Elvis Merzlikins. Vasilevskiy’s all-strengths high-danger save percentage is the best in the NHL in the subsequent 10 games since the Stars stinker. The Stars have won seven of their last 10 contests, so they are playing well, but can their offense produce while facing a focused Vasilevskiy? A possible route to victory for the Stars lies in harnessing the man advantage.
A lot has been made of the Lightning’s improved forecheck and more responsible puck management. The stats and eye test demonstrate marked improvement in both areas. But one part of the game where the Lightning have not seen any improvement is their discipline. The Lightning take 4.00 penalties per 60 minutes, which is exactly what their rate was last season. Masking this blemish has been the fact that that their penalty kill is white hot, as Tampa Bay started off as one of the league’s worst penalty kills and now ranks 4th in the NHL.
The Stars have a pedestrian power play, but if they can exploit the power-play chances they obtain, they can possibly tilt the game in their favor. However, the Stars rank 28th in penalties drawn per 60 minutes, so they would need to increase their theatricality, be a little lighter on their feet, and try to draw the Lightning into several penalties in order to seize on the man advantage.
It’s been really enjoyable to watch Brayden Point play with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos and for Anthony Cirelli to yuck it up with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Watching them steal pucks and wallop Winnipeg on the rush was thrilling. I suspect Dallas is going to be more of a slow burn, with a lot of territorial play and cycling. With fresh legs and the vitality that comes with a little rest and relaxation, the Lightning should be ready to pounce on a middling Stars squad.
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»