Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov were simultaneously the most promising and most unsettling features of last night’s 2-1 victory over Columbus. The star forwards combined for two brilliant goals, but their artistry managed to overshadow their team’s frightening lack of discipline as the Bolts gave the Blue Jackets ample opportunities to seize the game on the power play. The Lightning have exhibited a more controlled temper of late, but the Blue Jackets are keen to rankle them. Tampa Bay’s parade to the penalty box and excessive chippiness played into Columbus’s hands.

The other nettlesome quality from last night’s win is the continued scoring drought from the bottom-six forwards. They weren’t together last night because of Steven Stamkos’s injury, but in the last ten games the putative third line of Alex Killorn, Cedric Paquette, and Patrick Maroon, has registered zero goals, with a horrendous expected goals percentage of 34.67 and a -8 in high-danger chances. Over that same span the Mitchell Stephens line is controlling the puck with a 62.19 expected goals percentage and a +5 in high-danger chances. Unfortunately, they have only potted two goals in 13 contests while surrendering eight. Poor Yanni Gourde hasn’t scored a goal since before Thanksgiving.

Last night, the Bolts obtained 13 scoring chances at 5v5. Twelve of them were obtained by the first two lines. And it’s not like the first two lines played that well either; the Lightning finished with an expected goals rate of 0.89, which is their second worst of the season. (Their worst performance was against Vegas on February 4th.)

Ondrej Palat took Stamkos’s spot on the first line with Kucherov and Point. But the Lightning have been playing Kucherov, Point, and Stamkos as a forward line since January 4th against Ottawa. If Jon Cooper keeps that trio together in the playoffs, it is worth envisioning what strategies and schemes an opposing coach could devise to try to foil them. Hopefully, the Lightning are thinking about this too, because if you can anticipate your adversaries’ moves, you can strategize responses. Gaming out how a postseason matchup might unfold also raises the question of whether concentrating all their best talent in one line is a good move for the Lightning in the first place.

I suspect one tactic an opposing coach will employ is to have his shutdown line focus on denying the puck to Point before he reaches the neutral zone, so he can’t zoom through the middle of the ice with speed and facilitate a shooting attempt to his outstanding shooters on the wing.

The first Kucherov goal highlighted the need for the adversary to choke off Point’s puck-transportation duties, but in fairness to Columbus, with both teams being down a man it was risky to try to sink that low to try to disrupt the handoff to Point.



However, if an opponent shadows Point, it could get thornier for the Bolts. Maybe an opposing forward follows him below the goal line and tries to bump him off his trajectory as he is preparing to explode out of the zone?

Kucherov’s route is important to follow here too because, after the play in which Point ferried the puck all the way down the ice and zipped it to Mikhail Sergachev at the point, the Blue Jackets' defenders should have known the puck was going to be directed toward a player without the puck, and that player would not be Braydon Coburn.

Kucherov initially starts waving for the puck in the slot as Point sinks below the circles, but as Kucherov recognizes that Point is going to move the puck to one of the defensemen, he dips behind the net and cuts toward the low slot right as Sergachev releases his shot-pass. Kucherov is accelerating toward the puck while David Savard is standing idle; no wonder Kucherov is able to best Savard for the deflection. The most dangerous outcome for any offensive opportunity is Kucherov or Stamkos being fed the puck for a shot: How is Savard not more concerned about Kucherov until it’s too late?

The Blue Jackets did a strong job of stymying the Lightning’s offense. It is notable that the Bolts scored their goals on a four-on-four and three-on-three. Strong puck management is partly aspirational, like trying to always make good ethical decisions. The Blue Jackets thread the needle of trying to play aggressively while handling the puck responsibly. This is crucial because one mistake against the Point line and the consequences can be dire.

Like a mirror with unflattering lighting, the Blue Jackets have the unique ability to expose the Lightning’s blemishes. Even in the midst of a seven-game win streak and climbing up the standings in the East, the Lightning have potential weaknesses they need to reckon with before the postseason.

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