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Here are a few things to watch when the Calgary Flames take on the Boston Bruins:
1. The matchup game
Boston’s top line is one of the toughest matchups in the league. Perhaps the toughest. At 5v5 they’ve controlled 61% of the expected goals and 65% of the actual goals despite playing stiff competition each and every night. They’re almost impossible to slow down, especially if you don’t have the right personnel on the ice. That’s why it is imperative Geoff Ward gets the Matthew Tkachuk line out against them as much as possible, ideally with the Rasmus Andersson pairing behind them.
T.J. Brodie is used to tough minutes but Michael Stone’s on-ice impact is one of the worst you’ll find. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say the Oliver Kylington - Alex Yelesin pairing would be completely steamrolled playing those minutes (not that they ever would).
Get Rasmus Andersson out there with the Tkachuk line and maybe the Flames will have a chance at surviving.
2. High-danger hockey
The Flames haven’t exactly played tight defense since Mark Giordano and Travis Hamonic went down to injury. That shows in the numbers, as they’re 29th in Expected Goals Against/60 over the last 10 games. Luckily, they have been able to make up for it at the other end.
Calgary is creating 13.45 high-danger chances per 60 in that span, good for 5th in the NHL. The Bruins are just one spot behind them, generating 12.86 per 60 minutes.
The difference is Boston hasn’t been giving many up, ranking top-6 in xGA/60 and HDCA/60 during this 10-game window.
I have a feeling the Bruins will be able to create their fair share of high-end looks tonight. Calgary’s going to have to find a way to open Boston up and match that at the other end or they’re going to be in tough.
3. The potential antidote
As mentioned above, both teams have done a very good job creating Grade A opportunities of late. Luckily, they have goaltenders quite capable of stopping them.
Tuukka Rask not only leads the 50 eligible goaltenders (1,200+ minutes) in total save percentage, but in save percentage vs high-danger shots.
David Rittich has fallen on some tough times of late but his ability to stop Grade A looks hasn’t. He still sits only behind Rask, Jordan Binnington, Elvis Merzlikins, and Ben Bishop in HD save percentage.
UPDATE: Cam Talbot is starting, because of course. His overall numbers are strong, however, he has not fared all that well vs high-danger shots (.802, compared to .845 for Rittich). If Boston generates them the way they have of late...it could be a problem.
4. Time for a breakthrough
Brady Tkachuk, Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Svechnikov, Anders Lee, Auston Matthews, and Tyler Toffoli. Those are the only seven players with more expected goals at 5v5 than Johnny Gaudreau over the last 11 games. What separates Gaudreau from that bunch: he’s the only guy who hasn’t been rewarded with a goal. He is getting a lot of chances/breakaways – clearly – but he just can’t get anything to go. Now would be a time for that positive regression to hit because I doubt the Flames can expect much from their bottom-6 against a team like the Bruins.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Elias Lindholm
Andrew Mangiapane - Mikael Backlund - Matthew Tkachuk
Milan Lucic - Derek Ryan - Dillon Dube
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Tobias Rieder
Noah Hanifin - Rasmus Andersson
T.J. Brodie - Michael Stone
Oliver Kylington - Alex Yelesin
David Rittich
Boston Bruins
Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - David Pastrnak
Jake DeBrusk - David Krejci - Karson Kuhlman
Anders Bjork - Charlie Coyle - Danton Heinen
Joakim Nordstrom - Sean Kuraly - Chris Wagner
Zdeno Chara - Charlie McAvoy
Torey Krug - Brandon Carlo
Matt Grzelcyk - Jeremy Lauzon
Tuukka Rask
Puck drop is just after 9:00 p.m. Eastern and can be seen on SN1, SNO, SNE, SNP, NESN.
Numbers via naturalstattrick.com
Recent posts:
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On Backlund’s lack of scoring, potentially adding a defenseman, and more
Flames lose Mark Giordano for key stretch of games
Calgary’s three stars of the month for January
Five potential trade targets for the Flames
Four Flames questions as they enter the stretch run
Flames sign Rasmus Andersson to long-term extension
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