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Five things to watch for when the New Jersey Devils take on the Vegas Golden Knights:
1. David vs Goliath
You’d be hard pressed to find a bigger mismatch in the league right now. Analytically, there might not be one.
Vegas has won eight of the last 10 games and posted absurdly strong 5v5 numbers during that time, taking 56.47% of the shot attempts (1st) and 57.92% of the expected goals (2nd). They are steamrolling teams despite injuries to key players like Mark Stone and Alex Tuch.
While the Devils have won their share of games of late, that has more to do with goaltending than anything else. They’ve controlled just 42.72% of the shot attempts (31st) and 43.52% of the expected goals (29th).
If not for *checks notes* the best 5v5 goaltending in the league by a country mile (.950 SV%) the losses would be piling up in ugly fashion.
As good as Mackenzie Blackwood is, he is being asked to do way too much right now and it’s only a matter of time before the Devils pay the price for it.
2. Where offense goes to die
Even though the Devils have won plenty of games, they’re not really scoring. I’m not sure I’d bet on that changing tonight.
Vegas is playing truly fantastic defensive hockey right now. They’re giving up just 48.64 attempts (2nd) and 1.98 expected goals (3rd) per 60 over the last 10 games.
It’ll be hard to get good looks with any regularity. When the Devils do muster something up, they’ll have to beat Robin Lehner. That’s not exactly a walk in the park.
Of 33 goaltenders with 4,000+ minutes played since the beginning of 2018-19, just two have a higher save percentage than Lehner (.925).
3. Found money
When the Devils traded Blake Coleman, a high-end 2nd line was broken up. Luckily, Alain Nasreddine and co. have stumbled into a new one.
Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev, and Pavel Zacha have looked really good by the eye and the numbers are encouraging as well. They’re generating more shots, chances, and goals than they’re giving up. They also rank 1st, 2nd, and 3rd on the team in points over the last 10 games.
If any line is going to break through and generate offense against this stout Vegas defense, it’s probably this one.
4. Stay out of the box
Vegas’ power play is absolutely prolific. No team has averaged more shots per minute on the man advantage and only Edmonton, a team featuring two of the top-5 offensive players in the league, has mustered up chances at a higher rate.
Sans Andy Greene and Blake Coleman, New Jersey’s penalty kill has unsurprisingly taken a step back. They’re bottom-8 in suppressing chances over the last eight games.
With the PK’s effectiveness heading south, and the team having a tough time generating 5v5 offense, it is imperative they limit their penalties tonight and don’t spoon feed Vegas’ elite power play extra opportunities to go to work. If they do, they’ll almost certainly pay for it.
5. One-shot shooters
Even without Alex Tuch, the Golden Knights have a handful of elite shooters in their lineup. Max Pacioretty (5th), Jonathan Marchessault (19th), and Brandon Pirri (41st) have all generated shots at a high-end 1st line rate over the last 1.75 seasons. That’s scary considering each of them possesses the caliber of shot to score from anywhere in the offensive zone. They can all get the puck off their sticks in very short order, too, so New Jersey’s defenders are going to have to close gaps and take away shooting lanes quickly.
Here are the projected lineups:
New Jersey
Jack Hughes - Nico Hischier - Kyle Palmieri
Jesper Bratt - Pavel Zacha - Nikita Gusev
Miles Wood - Travis Zajac - Joey Anderson
Kevin Rooney - Michael McLeod - John Hayden
Mirco Mueller - P.K. Subban
Dakota Mermis - Damon Severson
Connor Carrick - Josh Jacobs
Mackenzie Blackwood
Vegas
Jonathan Marchessault - Paul Stastny - Reilly Smith
Max Pacioretty - William Karlsson - Nicolas Roy
Nick Cousins - Chandler Stephenson - Brandon Pirri
Will Carrier - Tomas Nosek - Ryan Reaves
Brayden McNabb - Nate Schmidt
Alec Martinez - Shea Theodore
Nick Holden - Zach Whitecloud
Robin Lehner
Puck drop is just after 10:00 p.m. eastern on MSG+ and ATTSN-RM.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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