I was away last week and couldn’t watch or write about the Lightning game on Tuesday night. The plan was to start again when I returned, but as everyone knows, Tampa Bay’s game against Toronto was their last contest for the foreseeable future as the NHL is indefinitely suspended and we are all practicing social distancing.

Generally, articles have a 24-to-48-hour shelf life depending on when the next game is scheduled, but with the NHL shuttered, watching and then re-watching the game against the Maple Leafs has made for captivating viewing. Should the NHL regular season resume, the Maple Leafs are the likely opponent for the Lightning come postseason time, whenever that may be. Here are my thoughts from Tuesday’s game. And a non-hockey point: everyone stay safe.

The first period revealed the Lightning’s worst-case scenario
The Maple Leafs outshot the Lightning 13-5 at 5v5 in the first period. They obtained five high-danger chances while the Bolts generated zero. Toronto finished the first period with a 1.45 expected goals for. It was a brutal start for Tampa Bay, and there are a few key reasons why.

One glaring problem throughout the first period was that the Lightning couldn’t sustain a forecheck. It wasn’t until 8:53 in the first period that Tampa Bay finally registered a shot attempt. The Maple Leafs were exiting their own zone with ease, and the speed they gained through the neutral zone caused the Bolts’ defensemen to sag on their gaps. Once the Leafs initiated the cycle, the Lightning struggled to dispossess them of the puck and were sloppy on their breakout passes when they did control the puck. This led to more turnovers and more offensive zone time for Toronto.

The line that had the most trouble on Tuesday was that of Yanni Gourde, Cedric Paquette, and Patrick Maroon. On two separate shifts during the first five minutes of the game, they nearly surrendered a goal. First it was to Jason Spezza, who had multiple swats at the puck in the low slot. Then it was to Denis Malgin, followed by Cody Ceci, who had chances to accelerate into the slot with speed. On both shifts, Maroon had a giveaway that aided Toronto.

The Leafs have a lot of speed and move the puck quickly. If the Paquette line can’t hem its adversaries in the offensive zone, how much of a liability are they defensively in a series against Toronto? The game on Tuesday was in Toronto, so if Sheldon Keefe has the last change, will he be using his stars to bully the Paquette line? At the game’s conclusion, the line finished with a -2 in scoring chances differential and Toronto had manufactured eight shot attempts while conceding only three when they were on the ice.

On the shift where Malgin and Ceci both almost scored, Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh were on the ice. The Lightning played Tuesday night without Victor Hedman, so McDonagh-Cernak should theoretically be the Lightning’s strongest pairing. Jon Cooper kept the duo on the ice for the next faceoff after Ceci walked into the slot and whipped a shot into Andrei Vasilevskiy’s crest, but against the Auston Matthews line, the McDonagh-Cernak pairing looked overwhelmed. Both defensemen coughed up the puck, and then McDonagh left William Nylander all alone in front of the net and had to commit a penalty to stop him. The Maple Leafs wouldn’t score on that power play, but they did notch both of their goals on the man advantage.

The poor play continued. At the eleven-minute mark, Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, and Tyler Johnson nearly allowed a goal to Pierre Engvall, but how the scoring chance came about is noteworthy. The Lightning controlled the puck in the offensive zone for 20 seconds, never attempting a shot, and then Killorn lost the puck near the blue line. This provided Maglin the chance to rush the puck down the ice, and with no back pressure from the forwards, Mikhail Sergachev gave Malgin a wide enough gap that he could carry the puck to the opposite goal line.

Once the puck was in the defensive zone, Kucherov and Killorn turned it over in quick succession. Kucherov’s attempt to carry the puck around the back of the net led to it being spat out into the slot, and Killorn tried to clear the puck up the middle, but hit a Toronto body, which gave Engvall an attempt to swat the puck past Vasilevskiy. Thirty seconds later, Gourde yielded the puck in the neutral zone and a Carter Verhaeghe fly-by did nothing to hinder Toronto, but instead enabled the Maple Leafs to tee up John Tavares to walk into the low slot and hammer a shot that luckily missed the net.

None of these miscues led to a goal until the seven-minute mark in the first period, where a failed breakout by Paquette led to the Matthews line establishing possession in the offensive zone and drawing a penalty from Barclay Goodrow. Nylander would score within the first ten seconds of the power play.

What changed?
By the second period Lightning finally woke up, and when they did it exposed the Maple Leafs’ shaky defense. The Lightning forwards started to force turnovers on the Maple Leafs’ regroups and breakouts, and with more success on the forecheck, Tampa Bay was able to accumulate more room on entries. The Maple Leafs’ defense also struggled to contain the opposing forward rushing down the opposite wing, and Blake Coleman, Verhaeghe, and Johnson all had moments where they outskated the Leafs defensemen and created a passing lane to receive the puck.

When the Ondrej Palat-Brayden Point-Kucherov line was reunited, it was dominant in stretches, finishing with a +7 shots and scoring chances differential at 5v5. It was also evident that Toronto struggled to cover them on the cycle, as extended zone time saw the cutting forward (usually Palat) break free for an open shot opportunity. Palat notched the Lightning’s only goal, but he could have potted a few more.

When Tampa Bay started pinning the Maple Leafs in their own end, it also emboldened the Bolts’ defense. When Toronto tried to carry the puck through the neutral zone, the Lightning blueliners were stepping up to break up passes and take away skating lanes, and in the offensive zone they were aggressive on their pinches.

The defensive group is a concern
Even with Hedman in the lineup, the Lightning’s weakness is their defensive corp. Look at the construction of the team. Four of the Lightning’s starting defensemen (Sergachev, Cernak, Kevin Shattenkirk, and Jan Rutta) make less than $2M AAV. Sure, that’ll change this summer, and the Lightning will need to trade a few of their forwards to extend Sergachev and Cernak. But the way the team is built, the forwards (and goaltender) exert the gravitational pull.

Other than Hedman and Sergachev, none of the Lightning’s defensemen have the mobility to skate the puck away from danger. The Bolts defensemen need the forwards to buoy them. (This is also why Point’s ability to sink low and carry the puck 150 feet is so valuable.) Rutta may be healthy by the time play resumes, but the Lightning are still one injury away from Braydon Coburn, Zach Bogosian, or Luke Schenn playing in the postseason, which would be saddling the Lightning with a Dan Girardi-sized vulnerability. The best way to reduce the pressure on their error-prone defense is to play offense, and that comes through forcing turnovers and retrieving the puck. In the first period, the Lightning couldn’t sustain offensive pressure, and they were lacking focus in their defensive coverage. When play resumes, they need the offense to be alert should they play Toronto in the playoffs. If they’re not, they will drown.

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