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Sabres Off-Season Blueprint: Making the Cut UFA Edition

March 26, 2020, 2:02 PM ET [967 Comments]
Michael Ghofrani
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In the prologue of the off-season blueprint, I discussed how a change in philosophy was necessary in order for the Buffalo Sabres to pivot from playoff pretenders to contenders. In part 1, I’ll take a look at the list of unrestricted free agents and assess who makes the cut for the high event version of the Sabres, and who doesn’t.

Before I begin it’s important to consider the exceptional circumstances surrounding the Sabres free agent list. There’s essentially two lines worth of unrestricted free agents at the forward position, giving Jason Botterill a fair bit of flexibility in the short term. However, with some key restricted free agents like Sam Reinhart due for major raises, it won’t be as simple as money in money out to replace any and all of the free agents. Should the Sabres choose to move on from most (or even all) free agent forwards, they’ll have to bet on some forwards in the organizations pipeline, including former top 10 picks Casey Mittelstadt and Dylan Cozens.


Wayne Simmonds
Position: LW/RW
Age: 31
2019-20 cap hit: 2.5 million AAV (50% retained by New Jersey)


Simmonds was acquired at the deadline to help spark the Sabres in their long shot playoff run, which last all of five minutes. The power forward brings an edge to his game that made plenty of Sabres fans happy at the time of the trade but the on-ice results just aren’t what they used to be.


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(naturalstatrick.com) click on image for clearer view

His possession numbers saw a slight bump in his time with the Sabres as his usage became more offensive but other than that it’s been a steady decline. This isn’t to say he’s no longer a useful player in the NHL, his defensive impact is still at least average and someone will likely benefit from having him as a depth forward. At this point in his career, Simmonds is the type of forward who would benefit from playing into a low event system, and while that may have made some sense at the deadline, it doesn’t really fit what the Sabres should be building towards moving forward


Verdict: Release to Free Agency


Michael Frolik
Position: LW/RW
Age: 32
2019-20 Cap Hit: 4.3 million AAV

Frolik was Botterill’s first in season acquisition as he attempted to turn his defensive depth into help up front, effectively moving Scandella and his salary out for the Czech forward. Frolik’s overall body of work the last few years made this a worthwhile gamble, even factoring in age/decline but unfortunately the move didn’t really work out for either Frolik or the Sabres

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(naturalstatrick.com)

Head coach Ralph Krueger wasn’t able to find Frolik a permanent spot on any line and eventually he found himself back in the press box, similar to his final days in Calgary. He’s not far removed from being a very effective third line forward, but the Sabres aren’t really in a position to be betting big on 32-year old’s regaining their form so his tenure as a Sabres is likely over.

Verdict: Release to Free Agency



Jimmy Vesey
Position: LW
Age: 26
2019-20 Cap Hit: 2.275 million AAV

Vesey fell a bit short in terms of production at 5v5, seeing a dip in goals per 60 and individual expected goals for. However, he also posted career highs in CF%, XGF% and GF%. There was also very little middle ground in his performances from line to line. He either played very well with some line mates or very poorly, for instance:

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(moneypuck.com)

These two lines were the best and worst on the Sabres at 5v5 (minimum 30 minutes together). It’s easy to dismiss the almost 63 minutes with Casey Mittelstadt on account of playing with someone not ready for the NHL, but Vesey didn’t play all that well with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Their expected goals per 60 of 1.93 was actually forth lowest of any line at 5v5, suggesting that perhaps the top line role was a bit much for him. His sweet spot was with Marcus Johansson in the middle six as the two of them averaged a 52% XGF when playing together no matter who their third line mate was, save for a four-game roller coaster when Dominik Kahun arrived.

His increased underlying numbers may be a result of fitting in well with low event hockey, or simply finding a better role than he did on the New York Rangers. When Vesey was on the ice without Mittelstadt as his centre, the puck appeared to be headed in the right direction, and chances were being created fairly consistently (relatively anyways).

Ordinarily I’d call this a toss-up, but the Sabres forward depth is shaky at best and at 26 years old, we’re unlikely to see a massive drop in on ice impact due to age. There are too may question marks for a long-term deal, but the Sabres should give Vesey another look next year to see what he can do in a different scheme.

Verdict: Re-sign for 1 year, 2.45 million AAV


Zemgus Girgensons
Position: LW
Age: 26
2019-20 Cap Hit: 1.6 million AAV

Girgensons formed 1/3 of the famed LOG line for the Sabres and was able to find some new-found success with the trio. They were primarily used as a shutdown line and were key in keeping the Sabres in the top 10 in the NHL in expected goals against at 5v5. Girgensons also saw a relative spike in production, scoring 9 goals at 5v5, a pace that if he had kept for the remainder of the year would have set a career high. It’s worth pointing out, however, that his shooting percentage was also a little over 4% higher than his career norm.

Regardless of the unsustainable offense, you could certainly make the argument that Girgensons is due a slight pay increase for his defensive value alone. The problem is that as great as the LOG line was, it represents an inefficiency the Sabres should be looking to move on from. They were undoubtedly great together, but a team trying to move towards a high tempo offensive scheme can’t be paying as much as the Sabres are for a shutdown line. Granted, a huge chunk of this is a result of Kyle Okposo’s contract, but with Johan Larsson also due for a raise it’s probably in the Sabres best interest to invest that roster spot and cap hit on a forward who may better fit an offensively geared lineup. Given that he’s only 26 years old, GIrgensons will likely have a few offers to choose from in free agency.

Verdict: Release to Free Agency


Johan Larsson
Position: C
Age: 27
2019-20 Cap Hit: 1.55 million AAV

For many, re-signing Larsson is a no brainer. He anchored one of the best shut-down lines in the NHL and his brief stint in the top six with Jeff Skinner and Conor Sheary showed us that he could play a bit of an offensive role as well.

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(naturalstatrick.com)

Larsson was already a pretty good shut down centre, but as you would expect, Krueger’s low event hockey brought out some of the best in him. Not only did opponents generate next to nothing while he was out there but his shot attempts for remained relatively high despite the heavy defensive usage.

While the numbers look good, two major obstacles stand in the way of this being a slam dunk re-signing. The first is the shooting talent, or lack thereof. Larsson has been able to make a name for himself despite the poor shooting but if the Sabres do end up changing the system to something more offensive, the weak shooting talent will become more noticeable in the wrong way.


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(chartinghockey.com)

In fairness, most of the team doesn’t come off looking good in this chart. However, it is a concern that a potential candidate for third line centre next year is near the bottom. This brings us to the second obstacle, which unsurprisingly is money. Unlike Vesey, predicting where contract talks will go with Larsson are far more difficult. The defensive talent is undeniable, yet even in 2020 it’s still one of the biggest inefficiencies in the game. For every 6’4 bruiser that gets 3 million too many, there’s a 5’11 with great stick work and positioning that gets 1 mil for year. Free agency is often described as silly season so it could go either way, but this is where restraint from the Sabres could pay off.

Assuming they acquire someone with offensive upside to fill the currently vacant 2nd line centre spot, they’d have quite the three headed monster down the middle with Eichel and Cozens. Then the question becomes how much cap space are you willing to spend on a fourth line centre? Most if not all playoff teams have players either on their ELC or on bargain 1-2 year contracts. Given all the other areas of need, fourth line centre isn’t the area you want to be caught spending third line money on.

Verdict: Attempt to re-sign at max 2 million AAV. Likely walks to free agency

Matt Hunwick/Vladimir Sobotka
Position:LTIR
Age: 32 and 34
2019-20 Cap Hit: 2.25 and 3.5 million AAV respectively

There’s a very good chance both Hunwick and Sobotka will see their NHL careers come to an end this off season. Neither player made much of an impression in their time with the Sabres, Hunwick was mostly just a favour in order to reduce the price tag for Conor Sheary when he was first acquired from Pittsburgh. Much like Patrik Berglund, Sobotka could never really find his game with the Sabres and eventually became the easy target for most Botterill related criticism.

Verdict: Release to Free Agency


Cap figures courtesy of Capfriendly.com


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