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After making decisions on which Sabres unrestricted free agents made the cut for next year’s team, I’m turning my attention to the restricted free agents. This year’s group of RFA’s includes key players like Sam Reinhart and Linus Ullmark but before I begin with the re-signing I thought I’d explore some trade options.
In an effort to keep things semi-realistic, I sought out other NHL team writers to get their two cents on certain players and gauge what the value/cost of acquiring their talent would be. My search began in Dallas, as I contacted SB nation writer David Castillo to see what the price tag for centre Roope Hintz would be:
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you can find his work here )
Hintz is an intriguing option because of the classic disconnect between underlying value and coaching usage Despite the fact that he was 2nd on the Stars in goals/60, head coach Rick Bowness slashed Hintz’s ice time all the way down to making him the 9th most used forward behind players like Blake Comeau and Mattias Janmark. I thought I smelled a buy low opportunity to solve the Sabres issues down the middle for the next decade. Here’s what David had to say regarding Hintz:
Stars fans can rest easy. Roope Hintz is not going anywhere. That's not all that shocking. If the season hadn't come to an abrupt stop from a global pandemic, he likely would have scored another goal, and been one of only two Stars to hit 20 goals this season. However, I love hot takes, and I'm attracted to attacking conventional wisdom. So let's go over ways Hintz COULD be available.
For one, their interim head coach, Rick Bowness, just doesn't like the rookies. Despite being top 2 in goals per hour, Hintz is Bowness' 9th-used forward (!). Below grinders like Mattias Janmark and Blake Comeau. It's insane, but at what point does Bowness' decision-making have the support of Dallas as an organization? In which case, you may ask, at what point would they prefer someone who CAN play big minutes?
Could there be a deal on the table for Sam Reinhart? Reinhart is obviously the more proven (and superior) player. He also profiles like the kind of player Dallas loves: two-way centers. I've seen both play (hey; I had to have SOME credibility if I wanted to get into the Dahlin vs. Heiskanen debate), which is why I feel fine saying that.
However, Hintz hasn't really had a chance to get his feet wet. If Dallas could sweeten the pot, would it be worth it for Buffalo to bring in an exciting, tall, fast center with less points to offer, but also some goal-scoring potential that may not have reached, and who is cheaper to boot? Plus, how cool would it be to see two 6'3 speedsters wreck shop on the same line, with Hintz and Cozens? I know some Buffalo fans might think "dude, Reinhart has cracked 60! Hintz doesn't have 60 points in his bloodline!" And I think that's fair. But look at Dallas: Benn and Seguin are on such a dramatic decline, Hintz' 19 goals through 60 games is all we have to look optimistically into the future. Of course we're gonna tag a huge down payment on him. Have you seen his hair?!
My buy low efforts didn’t work here but I admit I gave it more than a second of thought. With Reinhart projected to come in at somewhere around 7+ million AAV on a long-term deal, this deal would not only give the Sabres depth down the middle, but also cost significantly less long term if they could sign Hintz to a team friendly long-term deal. Despite how much I like Hintz and his ridiculous flow, I passed on this deal. It’s not so much that Im not at all open to moving Reinhart, but I’d rather just add assets and try to find a more sure-fire centre. Hintz is a clever option if Dallas isn’t sold on his talent, but not someone you overpay for.
My next stop was Long Island, where I spoke briefly with fellow Hockeybuzz writer Ben Shelley. I wasn’t totally sure on what the Isles needs were but several players at both forward and defense piqued my interest. I thought perhaps they may be interested in a right shot defenseman for their top four so naturally I offered up a player like Ristolainen. as well as seeing if there was any interest in Victor Olofsson or Casey Mittelstadt. Here’s what Ben had to say:
I doubt the Islanders would go after any RHD, based on their situation on defense right now, which already includes Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, Johnny Boychuk, plus Noah Dobson, who will likely get a larger role next year.
In terms of Mittelstadt or Olofsson, I think they'd probably be interested in listening on a trade but it would depend on the price. I'd think of the two, the Islanders would probably be more in on Olofsson, based on him being a player that could help the Islanders immediately.
If they were going to try to make a deal for Olofsson, I'd have to imagine Nick Leddy is the big piece they'd try to send back the other way.
There’s a part of me that would be inclined to gamble on Nick Leddy, especially if Im trying to run a high event scheme for the Sabres, but Leddy is running on 3 years of steady decline and holding a cap hit of 5.5 million AAV. Even if the cap wasn’t in jeopardy of holding at 81.5 million or going down, this is a steep price for someone that might be a better fit than Jake McCabe. I have my reservations on going long term with Olofsson, but for now he stays a Sabre.
Third time was the charm as I managed to strike up a deal with Blackhawks blogger Tyler Cameron. Here’s what Tyler had to say when I inquired about Dylan Strome:
At the start of the season I would have said no way the Blackhawks would move on from Dylan Strome. There were projections out there that had Strome in the range of $5-$6M AAV on a 5-6 year deal.
Then, Strome took a minor step back this season. This was due to the fact that he was held back by a couple injury issues, as well as the odd move by Coach Jeremy Colliton to play him on the wing for a chunk of the season.
While Strome may not be a speed demon, he sees the ice really well and it's obvious, he's a natural centre.
After this season, I would say the Hawks still very much like Strome and there's a good chance he resigns in Chicago. The unfortunately reality for the Strome camp though is it looks like his next deal might be more in the $3.5M-$4.5M AAV on a 2 or 3-year deal.
Strome's best friend (on and off the ice), Alex DeBrincat's new 3-year deal kicks in next year, therefore, I wouldn't be shocked to see the pending RFA sign for the same length this summer.
I will never say never though, and if Chicago deemed Strome expendable due to the emergence of Kirby Dach, then there could be something there.
This leads us to the trade itself:
BUF trades:
Dominik Kahun
Colin Miller
CHI trades:
Dylan Strome
Dylan Sikura
Tyler’s note:
The Hawks have a plethora of defensemen, but that could change over the summer so adding Miller could be an option. Sikura needs a new home and the Hawks are familiar with Kahun. Other pieces could be added to even things out
I like the deal as is so no additions needed for me. I think highly of both Kahun and Miller but Strome is the probably the best player in this deal or rather, he provides the most potential value to the Sabres.
(courtesy of https://evolving-hockey.com/)
As you can see from his RAPM chart, he’s a prototypical high event player and if I put him on a line with say, Jeff Skinner, I like my chances of seeing good results from him moving forward. Sikura also provides some nice depth on the right-wing side for the Sabres. The 24-year-old has 68 points in 91 career AHL games but couldn’t seem to crack the Blackhawks lineup seeing just nine NHL games this season. Given the lack of depth at right wing, Sikura would have every opportunity to earn himself a spot as an NHL regular. Plus, It'd give the Sabres a chance to ice an all Dylan line if they wanted to, which has got to be incredibly rare
Thanks for reading!
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