In order to acquire J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh on February 26th, 2018, the Lightning traded Vladislav Namestnikov, Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, a 2018 first-round pick, and a 2020 second-round pick to the Rangers. The jury is out on prospect Nils Lundkvist, who New York selected at the end of the first round in 2018, but even if he develops into a solid NHL player, the Lightning came away like bandits in this trade. Unfortunately, later things went sideways.

Miller had an explosive start with Tampa Bay in 2018, notching 18 points in 19 games and playing alongside Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. He sputtered in the postseason, but nevertheless appeared to be an important power-forward addition to the Bolts’ finesse game.

McDonagh proved to be a lynchpin along the blue line, helping to prop up a defense that was still relying on Dan Girardi to contribute minutes. McDonagh played hard minutes and was invaluable for the Bolts’ penalty kill.

Then the offseason arrived, and the Lightning decided to give healthy extensions to both of their deadline acquisitions. Flash forward to the summer of 2019, after a season where Miller was buried in the bottom-six forwards for most of the year (although he still managed to accrue 47 points) and the Lightning traded him to Vancouver. This season, Miller registered 72 points in 69 games with the Canucks, leading the team and registering career highs in goals, assists, and points.

In fairness to the Lightning, the Miller trade was defensible in the moment. They had to free up cap space to give extensions to a few of their best players (Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brayden Point), and Miller had never proven himself to be indispensable. Instead, he seemed like a talented, but inconsistent, 26-year old forward, who was run out of New York and then spent most of the 2018-19 season on the Bolts’ third and fourth lines. The Canucks paired Miller with Elias Pettersson and never wavered. The duo played 721 minutes together at 5v5 and the Canucks collected 50 goals while surrendering 24 when they were on the ice. Pettersson is a wunderkind, and Miller was a beneficiary.

Whether the Lightning should have traded someone other than Miller is an easy conversation to have with the benefit of hindsight. Perhaps Tampa Bay would have been wiser to dump Ondre Palat or Tyler Johnson, but those two players were part of the famed Triplets line the middle of the last decade. I suspect there is baked-in loyalty there. Ultimately, the Lightning dealt Miller because his contract was an obstacle in terms of giving large extensions to their core.

The irony is that, of the Miller and McDonagh contracts, McDonagh’s is worse. Tampa Bay is stuck with six more years of McDonagh, with a cap hit of $6.75M.
At times this last season, he looked like the Lightning’s third or fourth best defenseman, and he turns 31 this summer.

Concerns center around McDonagh’s rapidly diminishing ability to keep the puck away from the Bolts’ net and spark offense individually. The offensive production he exhibited in 2018-19 vanished this past season as he had the fifth-best expected goals percentage among Lightning defensemen. McDonagh registered four individual high-danger chances in 50 games. In 33 games, Jan Rutta tallied the same amount. McDonagh struggled to get shots through. He collected 40 shots at 5v5 in 50 games. Mikahil Sergachev notched 73 shots in 70 games and Erik Cernak had 111 in 67.

McDonagh has not proven himself to be a liability, yet. When McDonagh was on the ice at 5v5, the Lightning accrued 145 high-danger chances while allowing 112. He is still utilized on the penalty kill and could play a shutdown role. But the issue is: at what cost? Six more seasons is a long, long time. If Tampa Bay were to shed that contract, they’d have more cap space available for modest bridge contracts for Cernak, Sergachev, and Anthony Cirelli, and would also have more money to spend on two defensemen who could replace McDonagh.

Defensive depth is key, and right now the Lightning have none because they have many high-priced forwards, and two expensive defensemen in Victor Hedman and McDonagh. McDonagh has demonstrated he may have health issues for the remainder of his career, and with his expensive contract, the options for his replacement last season were Luke Schenn and Braydon Coburn. Less than ideal.

The Lightning could improve the mobility on their back end by adding both Jon Merrill and Dylan Demelo for relatively affordable amounts. Nathan Beaulieu is another Winnipeg defenseman the Lightning should look at. All three defensemen had less than a $1.5M cap hit, but their ability to scoot with the puck would make them a nice fit on Tampa Bay as they could get to the puck faster on retrievals and spread teams out in the offensive zone.

Are they flawed? Absolutely. But the Lightning have the skill to lift imperfect defensemen. The Bolts don’t want to be saddled with a depreciating player on a costly contract at a position on the depth chart where it is already vulnerable. Rather, they would be wise to invest in players who can move the puck and help them keep territorial advantage.

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