Follow me on Twitter!
In many of my recent posts I’ve highlighted the importance of switching tactical philosophies for the Buffalo Sabres. In short, the current core of leaders on this team are not built to succeed in a defensive scheme, and in the long run you wind up capping their ceilings, limiting the amount of wins they can add to the team.
I haven’t spoken much about the goaltenders in that time because the answer is a little more complicated. Both goaltenders faced their share of criticism throughout the year and many including myself believed they were perhaps as big of a roster issue as the second line centre position. Linus Ullmark had stretches where he looked solid at even strength but miserable on the penalty kill, and Carter Hutton didn’t look like an NHL goaltender all season save for a 2 week stretch before the NHL pressed pause on the season. However, a closer look at the underlying numbers reveals a different story. Here are their numbers for the season:
XGA: Expected Goals Against
GSAA: Goals Saved Above Average
(minimum number of mins played / eligible goalies in rank)
View post on imgur.com
We hear the phrase “a product of their environment” a lot when talking about goaltenders but that is definitely true of this tandem for the Sabres. Ullmark gave to the Sabres skaters exactly what they gave to him, posting the 8th best goals saved above average after receiving the 8th best shot quality against. The Sabres were not as kind to Hutton, giving up far more quality on average per game and Hutton in turn ranked in the bottom 10 in goals saved above average.
Even on the penalty kill, both goaltenders were as bad as the skaters in front of them. Ullmark saw slightly better penalty killing in front of him, so his numbers weren’t quite as dreadful as Hutton’s. They say your best penalty killer needs to be your goaltender, and while I wouldn’t go as far as saying they were actually their worst, they didn’t exactly do much to help the skaters in front of them.
Here’s where the evaluation becomes complicated. We know Hutton underperformed with what the Sabres skaters gave him, so an upgrade at the backup position looks necessary but how do we understand Ullmark’s value? To start with, we have to look at how valuable his GSAA ranking is relative to the shot quality he faced. In terms of ranking, Ullmark gave what he got, but how about the rest of the goalies at even strength? Here’s the breakdown of the 49 goaltenders ranked above:
25 goaltenders ranked lower in their GSAA than they did in their XGA
3 goaltenders ranked exactly the same or +/- 1 spot in their GSAA compared to their XGA
21 goaltenders ranked higher in their GSAA than they did in their XGA
This distribution shows us that Ullmark’s identical ranking between GSAA and XGA puts him right around the middle in terms of value among the eligible goaltenders. The next question would then be, is this enough? This again is a difficult question to answer because the results tell us it has nothing to do with Ullmark himself. If the aim for the Sabres is to continue playing low event hockey that gives the opponents nothing to work with in terms of shot quality, then Ullmark’s value might be good enough going forward. The assumption or gamble rather would be that Ullmark will continue to match what the skaters do in front of him. Bringing in another goaltender of a similar caliber would also ensure that Ullmark was never overworked to a point where those results would dip.
If, however, the goal is to change gears and play a high event style of hockey, the Sabres will likely want an entirely new goaltending duo. Teams that are able to consistently win playing high event hockey typically do so by having a goaltender who can provide a higher GSAA compared to the expected goals against he’s facing. Even if the tandem is relatively inexpensive on the salary cap, a bottom 10 expected goals against matched with a bottom 10 goals saved above average is still an issue since it would require your team to win all its games 5-4 and leave no room for any cold streaks by the offense. Since goaltending is usually the hedge against the risk of doubling down on your offense, better to play it safe and invest in above average goaltending.
Thanks for reading!
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»