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Hockey fans continue to wait on an official announcement from the NHL regarding the draft, however at this point the early June draft ideas appear to be at best a long shot. What this means as far as rules regarding the lottery remains unclear but for the next few articles in the draft primer series, I’ll be looking at the talent that could be available at each of the Sabres picks in this year’s draft.
Given the uncertainty around the lottery, it’s still in the realm of possibility for the Sabres to pick as high as #1 overall and as low as 10th. The ten names I’ll explore today will be split into different categories, in accordance with the draft pick value model shown in the previous article.
Category 1 are your can't miss (or rather shouldn't miss). prospects. The top three in a draft like this are almost always high and immediate impact players.
Category 2 are prospects who are probably going to be high impact players but either might need a little more time or are missing that little extra something.
Category 3 prospects are your 50/50 (+/- 10 %) selections. These are prospects who either have the talent but come with one or two serious red flags or have produced well but have question marks around their ceiling.
Data courtesy of Pick224.com
Category 1: Picks 1-3
“The Elite”
>80% of reaching potential
1. Alexis Lafrenière - Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL)
Since 2012, only Connor Mcdavid has had a higher primary points per game tally in the CHL than Lafrenière. The upside is undeniable and there’s very little to suggest he won’t be a very impactful player at the NHL level. However, his shooting percentage is surprisingly low, or lower than expected. He shot 15.31% at even strength, which is noticeably lower than many of the other elite CHLers over the years. This could simply be a result of fewer playmakers on his team but it is curious.
2.
Quinton Byfield - Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
Byfield comes in at a very close second on this list. Sure, he likely played with better teammates on the Sudbury Wolves than Lafrenière did on the Océanic, but Byfield is also almost a full year younger than Lafrenière. Byfield has the 6th best primary points per 60 in his draft year since 2012, and is the 2nd youngest among the top 50 (Mackinnon was a little under 2 weeks younger his draft year). It wouldn’t surprise me at all if a few general managers had him #1 on their list.
3. Alexander Holtz - Djurgardens IF (SHL/SuperElit)
It’s a shame Holtz didn’t get to see more time in the SuperElit league, but in 3 games he managed to put up 7 goals, a very small sample and even though he probably wouldn’t have maintained that pace, it’s safe to say he would’ve crushed it there. Holtz still put up 16 points in 35 games in the SHL, no small feat for a rookie in his draft year, and the coaching staff’s willingness to regularly use the 18 year old says a lot about his impact.
Category 2: pick 4 and 5
“The Probable’s”
60-80% chance of reaching potential
4. Marco Rossi - Ottawa 67's (OHL)
This was a tough call for me to put Rossi just outside the top 3 as he’s put up one of the best DY performance’s in recent history. Part of me wonders if we’ll see a Cole Caufield like drop here because of his height (5’9) but the numbers speak for themselves. His production was bested only by Lafrenière and Byfield, making him a great add at #4.
5. Cole Perfetti - Saginaw Spirit (OHL)
Perfetti led all draft eligible CHL skaters in primary assists this season with 33, the most since Dylan Strome put up 34 in 2015. Perfetti rounds out the top 5 because of his game changer/playmaking abilities but I’m always hesitant about picks who turn it up in the home stretch of their draft years. It’s not that he was performing poorly before, but his performance in the first half of the season probably wouldn’t have been enough to keep him in the conversation for top 5. Having said that, players who put up his primary point totals in the CHL have gone on to have pretty successful NHL careers, so a top 5 spot is warranted.
Category 3: pick 6-10
“The Maybe’s”
40-60% chance of reaching potential
6. Tim Stützle - Adler Mannheim (DEL)
Most rankings out there will have Stützle ranked higher but the fact is it’s not a typical occurrence to see such a highly rated prospect in a relatively unknown league (relative to other leagues that usually get more attention). Most typically make the jump to a league like the SHL or overseas to the CHL, but Moritz Seider and Stützle seem to be the start of new wave, one where the DEL potentially gets more attention from the hockey world. Unsurprisingly, Stützle did very well in the DEL, putting up the best season by a U-19 skater since Marcel Goc in 2001. Even though it’s a safe bet the DEL has come a long way since then, there are still plenty of question marks about how well that production will translate to pro hockey in North America.
7. Anton Lundell - HIFK Helsinki (SM-Liiga)
Regarded by some as one of the “safer” picks in the top 10, Lundell’s point totals don’t jump off the page but he quietly had a very good season in the SM-Liiga. His draft year primary points per sixty is the second best in the last three years (Kakko being number 1) and his CF% of 61.9% was second behind Jesse Puljujarvi among eligible forwards in Liiga. He may not have the gamebreaker potential that those higher up on the list have, but if he falls anywhere beyond 6 or 7 he could be a major steal.
8. Lucas Raymond - Frolunda HC (SHL/SuperElit)
Many will be surprised to see Raymond this low on my rankings. While he may very well have lots of talent, he also comes with a few question marks. Similar to Casey Mittelstadt in 2017, there appears to be a major disconnect between talent and results. His even strength primary points per game was lower than fellow draft eligible forward Noel Gunler, who ranked 18th in ISS hockey’ latest rankings and saw a similar ice time per game as Raymond. His numbers were much better in small stint in the SuperElit but without an extended look it’s hard to know how well he compares to his peers. It’s entirely possible he was just a victim of circumstances and he’ll probably go in the top 10 or even 5 just based on talent alone but the pick wouldn’t be without risk.
9. Jamie Drysdale - Erie Otters (OHL)
The first defensemen and only defensemen on this list, Drysdale headlines a weaker class of defensemen compared to last season. Defensemen are much harder to evaluate at the junior level given the lack of publicly available data but Drysdale looks like your prototypical modern-day offensive defenseman. He didn’t register as many shots as players like Evan Bouchard or Noah Dobson did in their draft year, but his even strength primary assist numbers were among the best in the CHL and many have pointed to his transition game being a huge asset for any team. His per game totals across the board do come in at a lower rate than many of the noteworthy defenders taken the last few years however the Erie Otters weren’t a particularly good team either so the lack of production may come down to that.
10. Seth Jarvis - Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
This may be my biggest reach in any of the rankings I do but I believe Jarvis has flown under the radar thanks to his size. His 32 goals at even strength was 2nd best in the CHL and he produced at nearly a point per game pace at even strength. Questions will be asked about his ability about his size and how he adapts to the NHL but with his skating abilities I can’t see that being much of an issue.
Thanks for reading!
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