|
Mike's Mailbag: Draft Picks, Zub Talk, Seattle, and More! |
|
|
|
|
|
Thanks to everyone who took the time to submit questions to Mike’s Mailbag last month! Here are my responses:
Jason L asks: Do you think the Sens, who are in a crucial year of the rebuild, should go and sign a big name player to help lead them? i.e. Alex Pietrangelo, Joe Thornton, etc.
The fact that the Senators are in a crucial year of the rebuild is the exact reason they should avoid a move like this. The 2020 draft marks the turning point in the rebuild, but it doesn’t mean the team is ready to be competitive. With a budget-conscious management group, saving the big spend for a higher point in the competitive cycle is a must. There’s plenty of leadership in that room already.
Spatso asks: Is it correct to say that the Sens’ only draft outcomes are 1-3 or 2-3 or 3-4 under the proposed draft formula? What pick combinations are most appealing for each combo? Is there a prospect you would avoid?
This question was submitted before the league finalized its draft lottery format, but I’ve left it in because it provides an opportunity to share some great work from Micah McCurdy on the team’s odds:
The only prospect I have on my absolute “DO NOT DRAFT” list right up at the top is Yaroslav Askarov. Other than that, there’s nobody in that first handful of consensus names that would make me too upset.
Sensible asks: I know nothing about Zub other than his participation in the 2018 Olympics. How do you see him transitioning into the NHL? Is he more a 70-80 game contributor or a 10-15 one next season on an average NHL team?
It’s tough to say. The scouting comparisons to Nikita Zaitsev aren’t all that promising. But, on the other hand, the Carolina Hurricanes were reportedly interested… and they have a lot of really smart people making decisions. Ultimately, signing Zub is a low-risk gamble for the Senators. I would guess that one of the major reasons he picked Ottawa was the promise of opportunity, so he’ll almost certainly be closer to the 70-80 game range than the 10-15 game range.
Alex asks: Would it make sense to use our available second round picks in this draft to upgrade to lower end first rounders this draft? Which teams do you think would be most likely to help make this happen?
No, this is something I’d avoid. It almost always results in an overpayment.
Newman asks: Ottawa currently has six restricted free agents in their top nine (Duclair, C. Brown, Hawryluk, Balcers, Paul, and Tierney). This offseason has the chance to really define the competitiveness and structure of the Sens roster for years. How much of Ottawa’s cap should be allocated to these players, assuming all by but one of them are re-signed?
I’m not sure which one you are suggesting they walk away from, so it’s tough for me to answer the question. I think you could fit all six in at around $16M. I’ll let others figure out how I’ve allocated that number in my mind.
Andre asks: Do you prefer a draft lottery with 1-15 teams or just the seven non-playoff teams?
I would have preferred just the seven non-playoff teams. Having one of the play-in teams win the lottery would feel very wrong.
Smelly asks: Would Ottawa have any interest in 22-year-old Jesse Puljujarvi, and what would the offer be?
This is the kind of move that I think could make a lot of sense for Ottawa if they are looking to move a pick in this year’s draft. There were rumors last summer that Ken Holland was looking for a second round pick, and the Senators are definitely in a position to meet that ask given their collection.
Fil asks: What do you see happening with Bobby Ryan? Contract? $? Trade?
He only has two more years remaining on his contract. My guess is that he plays it out with the Senators.
Ben asks: With the Sens holding so much draft capital, could you see them making a trade for a legitimate second line center or top-four D-man to speed up the rebuild?
A lot will depend on where things land in the draft lottery. If they are lucky enough to pick up Alexis Lafreniere, perhaps the need to go out and acquire a center is a little bit greater. If they end up with Quinton Byfield, that need perhaps isn’t as great. Regardless, there’s lots of optimism in the system about a player like Josh Norris, and even Logan Brown.
Steffi asks: Assuming Lafreniere is picked first by either Ottawa or Detroit, who should Ottawa pick after that? Stutzle or Byfield? Follow up: From what I’ve read, Stevie Y would love Stutzle. Does that mean that Ottawa should go for Lafreniere and Byfield? I can’t even believe that might happen!!
Yzerman’s time in Tampa showed that he wasn’t afraid to go off the board in the first round. Even so, it would stun me if anyone but Lafreniere was picked first. If Ottawa is lucky enough to pick second after that, Byfield is the guy I’d be selecting.
It’s exciting to think about picking right up at the top like this, but it’s also important to note that there’s a very good possibility that Ottawa drops a couple spots. Get familiar with names in that 4/5/6 range as well.
Steve asks: Which teams should the Sens target by leveraging their cap space in order to accumulate good players and/or draft picks by taking on bad contracts from other teams?
Tampa and Vancouver are the two that have been in my mind for a long while. The benefit of dealing with Tampa in this sort of situation is that they are probably going to have to deal a decent enough player, which could make any sort of deal a bigger win for Ottawa. It doesn't necessarily have to be a bad contract, just one that the other team can't afford.
Keven asks: Who should the Sens target in free agency with the plethora of cap space they have?
My preference is that they look to re-sign the restricted free agents they know, and then let prospects come in and invigorate the team. The time to play in the free agent market will come once the organization has a better sense of where there are holes in the system, but right now there’s a lot of promise at most positions. It’s time to see whether and where that promise can deliver.
Woody asks: Does Seattle have their name and logo picked already?
Your guess is as good as mine.
Joe asks: When do you think they’ll get back to action and who is going to have the highest salary cap in the league?
All signs are pointing to a July return for training camps, but predicting anything in the world of COVID seems foolish. There are a number of cap teams.
Seth asks: What are your thoughts on the signing of KHL D-man Artyom Zub? Does he project to be a big minute eater with the Sens? Do you think he is one of the better signings we have seen coming out of the KHL this offseason?
I’ll reiterate what I said above: It’s a low-risk gamble for the Senators, with only potential upside. If it doesn’t work out, they cut ties and move on. If it does, they’ve landed a quality NHL defenceman for pennies on the dollar. And, again, my assumption is that he was happy to sign with the Senators because of the perceived (or potentially promised) opportunity that awaits him. He’ll play a lot.
Woody asks: In your opinion, what do you think the NHL Seattle team’s name will be? I think it will be Sockeyes.
I like Sockeyes. I like Metropolitans. I don’t like Kraken (though this feels like the favourite). I don’t like Totems.
Laurie asks: If the Sens do not get the first overall pick in the entry draft, who do you think their first three picks will be?
It’s tough to answer this without knowing where they’d slot in. Let’s assume that they continue to sit 2/3 for the sake of argument. My preference would be Byfield and Stutzle, but I could see a situation where they go with Byfield and Drysdale in those spots instead. As for the third first-round pick, it’s impossible to say without knowing who’s on the board at that point.
Peter asks: When will the Ottawa Senators get better and make it all the way to the Stanley Cup and not lose a lot?
I don't want to jinx it.
Dave C. asks: Who do you think the Sens pick at 2, 3, or 4 (and why) assuming the Wings get the first overall pick?
Well, there’s no guarantee under the finalized format that the Sens would be picking in any of those spots. If they do, though, Byfield and Stutzle are the two names at the top of my list (and most lists) after Lafreniere. The organizational need for a high-end center is well established, and there’s potential for both Byfield and Stutzle to fill that role.
Jason asks: If the Sens picked two and three in the draft, would you trade the third pick to the Devils for picks six and 10?
This is such a great question. From a completely objective draft pick value perspective, it likely makes sense to pull the trigger on that kind of trade. From an emotional perspective, on the other hand? It’s a tough sell for a team that desperately needs the PR win that would come from drafting back-to-back at two and three.
Pepe asks: There has been lots of talk about Logan Brown being a bust despite his performance in the AHL. What are your thoughts on him?
Not a bust yet, by any stretch. He *just* turned 22 years old in March, and certain people have written him off as though he’s some 27-year-old journeyman who’s never been able to make a dent in the pro game. There’s a ton to like about Brown, and I’m still optimistic that there’s a spot for him with the Big Senators moving forward.
Salty asks: Weaponized cap space. With a flat cap, what “bad” contract would you want to see the Sens take on for a return? I read Ryan Wilson’s blog series on bad contracts, but I’d like to see a Michael Grabner or other veteran who can play bottom-six in return for a 2nd or 3rd rounder in 2022 (for one of our AHL level players). Assuming no more changes to the expansion draft, could the Sens even take someone with a NMC that they have to protect?
If all goes well, draft capital in 2022 isn’t going to be quite as valuable to the Senators as it is today. They’ll hopefully be at a stronger point in the competitive cycle, with a need for contributing players rather than paper money. With that in mind, I’d rather see the Senators target a cap team’s good players for a discount than bad players in a complete cap dump situation.
I’d also stay away from going out and acquiring anyone who is going to need protection, unless they are a player worth protecting.
Code asks: Let’s say the Sens draft 2-3 and take Byfield and Stutzle (or Byfield and Raymond). Who on the current crop of C prospects drops to the wing? There isn’t enough room for Brown, White, Norris, and Pinto with Byfield taking on of the top spots. We can just assume Tierney stays on the third line to make it easy.
Josh Norris could probably shift to the wing with relative ease, and it’s not hard to imagine Stutzle playing on the wing either based on his experience in Europe. Colin White can slot in anywhere on that third or fourth line. Pinto is still at least a year or two away. Bottom line: They'll be able to make it work.
Terry asks: Any chance that if Ottawa doesn’t get the number one pick the team that does makes a mistake and calls out Alex Laferriere, RW, Des Moines (USHL) instead of Alexis Lafreniere, LW, Rimouski (QMJHL)? Dead players and such have been drafted by accident before.
We’re living in a world consumed by a once-in-a-hundred-years global pandemic. Nothing is off the table.
Bob asks: Do you think any of the minor league teams fail this year? If so, would that impact Ottawa’s ability to develop its wealth of talent coming through the system? Is there a chance that enough teams fold that leagues are compromised? Imagine if the ECHL was not able to ice enough teams.
The NHL and its organizations have a vested interest in ensuring the continuing strength and stability of the AHL, so I don’t think we’re going to be in a position where the main developmental league for their product disappears. I also don’t think that major junior hockey programs will be in material jeopardy. The lower-tier professional ranks, on the other hand, are certainly exposed to a unique type of risk, in that they don’t serve as a direct feed of talent to the big moneymaking corners of the spots. I can’t even imagine the pressures they are feeling right now.
Alex asks: Even if the Sens end up with worse draft picks than anticipated, will the talent available in the top seven be enough to push the franchise forward?
Yes. Having two picks up there helps.
Mike asks: If the draft is after the season/playoffs, how much could the Islanders pick move up or down? Or is it locked in at 21?
The pick is not locked in, and has the potential to move up depending on how the play-in playoff series goes for the Islanders and the result of the lottery. The best case scenario for Ottawa is that New York drops out early and then doesn’t win the lottery, as the pick is lottery protected against 1/2/3 overall.
As always, thanks for reading.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»