So you’re saying we still have a chance at Alexis Lafreniere? The ping-pong balls - more of that below - came up roses, unless you are one of the team's who were in the main lottery, especially Detroit and Ottawa, as one of the play-in round losers earned the first overall pick. Entering the draft lottery with a 2.5% chance at the top selection, Team E was a winner last night. But now comes the major debate, tank the first round to have a 1 in 8 chance or win and still have an opportunity at Lord Stanley's Cup?
As Rangers' fans, based on the sequence of numbers that came up, you could say the Core Four was hard at work behind the scenes. Graves, Leetch and Messier all played a part in Team E hitting on the only combination that would have landed the first overall pick. Sprinkle in a little Bill Fairbairn or Ron Duguay or Marian Gaborik or J.T. Miller, depending on your preference and that's your four number winner.
The odds are still stacked against New York. Whichever of the eight teams have a chance after the play-in round, the odds obviously are 1 in 8 or 12.5%. In order for New York to have a chance at the first pick, they must lose to Carolina, putting their pick in the eight-team Phase II lottery. That is the only way they have a shot at Lafreniere. As Vince Mercogliano laid out in his column, if the Rangers beat the Hurricanes, their shot at the first overall selection goes by the wayside.
If the Rangers beat the Hurricanes in the qualifying round series, they’ll end up picking at No. 16 or later (depending on how deep they go in the playoffs). The lottery is only for the first 15 picks, and the winning teams from the qualifying round will not be included.
If the Rangers are eliminated by the ‘Canes, then their pick could go one of two routes:
1) They’ll have an opportunity to win the Phase 2 lottery drawing. All eight losing teams will have equal odds — 12.5% — of landing the No. 1 pick.
2) If they don't win the Phase 2 lottery, they’ll end up in the No. 9 through No. 14 range, depending on the other teams that are eliminated in the qualifying round.
The Rangers won’t pick at No. 15 because two qualifying round series — Islanders vs. Panthers and Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets — feature teams with better points percentages. Regardless of who wins either of those series, the losers are guaranteed to pick behind the Rangers unless one of those teams win the lottery.
New York will have two picks in the first round. Their own and Carolina's as part of the Brady Skjei deal. But as Mercogliano points out, because the Hurricanes also own the Maple Leafs pick, due to the Patrick Marleau deal, the conditions associated with that pick create another level of complexity when figuring out where the Blueshirts would select in the first round. At a minimum, root for Toronto to beat Columbus.
The pick the Rangers will receive from Carolina could go in several directions, although it cannot end up at No. 1.
The Hurricanes have the rights to two first-rounders — their own and Toronto’s — and agreed to send the Rangers the later of the two picks.
Carolina finished with a better points percentage than the Maple Leafs, which means if any of these scenarios occur, the Rangers will pick in the Hurricanes' slot:
Both Carolina and Toronto advance from the qualifying round.
The 'Canes win their series and the Leafs lose.
Both lose and neither wins the Phase 2 lottery.
In scenarios 1 and 2, the Rangers would end up receiving a pick at No. 16 overall or later.
In scenario 3, the pick would be inside of the top 15 but no better than No. 12. (The losers of at least three Western Conference series — Predators vs. Coyotes, Canucks vs. Wild, and Flames vs. Jets — would be guaranteed to pick ahead of both Carolina and Toronto.)
On the other hand, the Rangers end up with the Maple Leafs' pick if:
Toronto advances and the Rangers knock out Carolina.
The Leafs outlast the Hurricanes at a later stage in the tournament.
Toronto and Carolina both lose in the qualifying round and the 'Canes win the lottery.
In scenarios 1 and 2, the Rangers would receive Toronto’s pick at No. 16 overall or later.
In scenario 3, the pick would be inside of the top 15 but no better than No. 12.
Of course, there is a caveat to all this.
Toronto’s pick is top-10 protected, so the Hurricanes would have to return the pick to the Leafs if they win the lottery for No. 1. In that scenario, the Rangers would take Carolina’s pick — no matter where it lands — and the ‘Canes would be left without a first-rounder.
Nils Lundkvist is staying with Lulea for another season. Not a huge surprise given the depth on the Rangers' blue line and his ability to continue his development, especially with the NHL campaign not starting until at least late-December. Selected 28th in 2017, Lundkvist posted six goals and 25 points in 36 games for Lulea this past season. Look for him to sign his ELC after the 2020-21 Swedish League season ends and join the squad sometime next spring.
Which team would be most painful to see get the first overall pick by virtue of losing in the play-in round if it's not the Rangers? Pittsburgh, who would then have a possible heir apparent to Sidney Crosby? Edmonton, as adding Lafreniere to that mix would be scary. The same in Toronto. Maybe Montreal, though many felt they didn't deserve to be in the playoffs and getting the first pick could almost be considered poetic justice. To me, though, the worst would be the Islanders, since Lafreniere accelerates rapidly what they have done under Trotz and Lamoriello.
Three key pieces of info from
Elliotte Friedman's 31 thoughts:
1) if — for whatever reason — the season can’t resume/be completed. The next eight non-playoff teams are evenly split by conference, as in a regular year. That’s Montreal, the Rangers, Florida and Columbus in the Eastern Conference; Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota and Winnipeg in the West.
All would have a 12.5 per cent shot at numero uno. This makes sense based on the pandemic causing the season not to complete, as then the top 16 are truly the top sixteen.
2. I think
Lindy Ruff has a legit shot at the New Jersey coaching job. I had heard that external GM candidates asked the Devils to allow them some input, but a few people told me Ruff is very much in this picture no matter what. Unsure if Friday could have been any better of a day, A shot at the first pick and Ruff gone and in NJ.
3)
CBA: Friedman gives more clarity to what I posted the other day. Deal looks to be for six years, but nothing is set in stone. One major key is the flat cap the next two seasons and slight increase for 2022-23. Plus, nowhere have heard about a possible compliance buyout. However, though a source, the possibility exists that the deal might allow teams with current dead cap space due to a prior buyout to no longer have that count against the cap as a sort of compliance-type buyout. If this proves to be the case, Kevin Shattenkirk's $6.083 million of dead cap space could then be added back to the cap, providing the Rangers with needed room.
Four years added onto two remaining seasons; 20 per cent escrow limit for players in 2020-21; somewhere between 14-18 per cent in 2021-22, with a hope of getting into single digits after; salary cap of $81.5 million for the next two seasons, and $82.5 million in 2022-23; a 10 percent player “deferral” next season (which includes July 1 signing bonuses due next week), where players will get that money back in the future when escrow is lower; and a mechanism to make sure teams get paid in full from the 50-50 split over the length of the deal.
One thing I’ve struggled understanding is what this deferment means to a team’s cap situation. Some sources indicated they thought this would give teams extra room, but another countered by saying he understood it “counted in the year earned.” So, still waiting for clarity on this.
So what say you? Do you vote for losing and a 12.5% at the first overall pick or win and take a shot at the cup? Curious to hear your thoughts. Mine is to play it out and see what happens, but I completely understand those who want the chance at Lafreniere.
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