The NHL will be the first major North American sport to host a playoff game during the pandemic. They are also the only league who said no thanks to the United States. It was a great decision and it is paying dividends so far. I really didn’t think we’d get here. The Penguins have a playoff game tomorrow against the Montreal Canadiens at 8 PM on a Saturday night, Hockey Night In Canada indeed.
I asked for some questions about the series and here they are
To answer Marc, no there isn’t any evidence right now to suggest Matt Murray deserves to start on the merit of the 2019-20 season. Tristan Jarry was an All Star and it was on the back of his insanely good start to the year. He was a .935 goalie up to being announced as an All Star. After the All Star announcement Jarry was a .900 goalie. A huge drop off and it is why we are even having the discussion. However, at the same time Matt Murray was an .896 goalie during Jarry’s .935 stretch and a .903 goalie during Jarry’s .900 stretch. Here is visual to show you just how lopsided the performances of each goaltender were this year
To answer Jeff, Murray has been scraping hockey’s goaltender version of the Mendoza line all year. He hasn’t been good and doesn’t deserve the nod. I would start Tristan Jarry. Not to mention Jarry has the added bonus of being deft at handling the puck so when you add it all up he is the best goalie during this season. The only problem is the hiatus. This is unique and we aren’t dealing with a normal situation. All the team has to go on is practice and one exhibition game the two goalies split for a current sample. Not the best situation to make such an important decision. It is a short five game series and getting the goaltender question wrong will sink a team. I would be shocked if the Penguins didn’t start with Murray and pull him quicker than usual. The Canadiens don’t have any questions in goal. They are going with the .909 guy.
Very short. Mike Sullivan knows he has a guy who played great for him this year waiting in the wings. If Murray lets in two goals early whether it is his fault or not everybody is going to start looking down the bench at Jarry. I don’t think this is lost on Murray. It is a really tough situation to manage mentally and I don’t envy Murray in this regard. I’ll get to that second question later.
I can’t say I’ve seen a lot of “advanced stats” guys picking Montreal. In the blog the other day Dom Luszczyszyn has this series as the most lopsided of any play-in round series favoring the Penguins. I think most people understand that Pittsburgh has more dynamic players, way better roster overall, and they are completely healthy.
I think Montreal having a very good xGF% this year is driving most of this line of thinking. Montreal was second best at 54.01%. The issue is they don’t have a lot of finishers on the team. I like the comparison to the Carolina teams from a few years ago. Great underlying numbers, but at some point somebody has to put the puck in the net. I saw something right before I was going to post the blog and found it interesting because Montreal (per Corey Sznajder’s data) is known for being a rush team
They don’t have players who can finish like the Penguins
And Max Domi is currently slated for the fourth line. The expected goals are nice, but you need some finishers. Especially when the other team has them and don't need as many "expected" opportunities to net the same amount of goals.
I think this version of the Penguins should be able to handle the Canadiens cosplaying the 2017-18 Hurricanes
Oh, Billy Billy boy. When are you gonna find what ever it is you're looking for?
Sidney does not like soda. It has more than one ingredient in it and the sugar clogs up his hockey robotics system. Malkin drives a white car
The cynical answer would have to be Sidney Crosby. He wins the award even when he shouldn’t. Kris Letang never gets the respect he deserves so it won’t be him. Jake Guentzel would have lead the playoffs in goals (he has before and even that didn’t work). Evgeni Malkin would have to lead in even-strength goals and overall points in the playoffs (oh wait that didn’t work either). The point being to overtake Sidney Crosby you have to go above and beyond because if he is in the neighborhood an American and a Russian aren’t going to sway the majority of the Canadian writers who vote on it.
My personal pick would be Evgeni Malkin. He’s been superb this year and he will have two quality wingers at his side who can both score goals which normally doesn’t happen. His matchups should be somewhat favorable and he has looked amazing physically in the practices and even in the scrimmage.
The only change I would make to the roster is benching Jack Johnson. Replace him with Chad Ruhwedel or Juuso Riikola I don’t really care. The forward depth and allocation of talent on the lines is solid. Evan Rodrigues is a decent enough depth forward, but who are you taking out to give him game action? I like the lines the way they are.
Matt Murray. If he has yet another playoff run like the one he had in 2016 and 2017 he will solidify himself as THE “clutch” playoff goaltender of his generation. General Managers are really into that kind of thing. I would let the offer sheets come rolling in and give the keys to Tristan Jarry. Paying goaltenders huge money is a high risk and low reward proposition the overwhelmingly majority of the time.
Yes. His birthday falls on the day Game 4 is scheduled to be played. I don’t think the series is going to be a sweep. I think the Penguins end the series on Sid’s 33rd birthday… uhhh 33?!
Thanks for reading!
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