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Five things to watch when the Calgary Flames open their series against the Dallas Stars:
1. Underperforming stars. I love Johnny Gaudreau as much as the next guy but he and Sean Monahan, in particular, just haven’t been up to par of late. At least not at 5v5. Over the final 25 games of the season, Mikael Backlund – the No. 2 center people wish was more consistent offensively – had nearly as many points (18) as Gaudreau and Monahan combined (21). That’s not OK. The Flames managed to slip by the Jets, in part due to an abundance of injuries, but Gaudreau and Monahan fared no better then – combining for just one 5v5 point (a secondary assist!) in four games. They need to be much better to pull off an upset here. On the flip side, Jamie Benn had just 39 points this year and Tyler Seguin enters play pointless over his last six. The group of underperforming stars that steps up in this series will give their team a big advantage.
2. Low-event hockey. Both Calgary and Dallas are better at limiting chances than generating them, and both teams ranked in the top half of the league at 5v5 save percentage. Unsurprisingly, that led to some rather low-scoring games throughout the year. Dallas only out-scored Calgary 3-2 at 5v5 over three games(!) this season and I see no reason to expect the goals to pile up in this series. I think it is going to be elimination game tight every night so the Flames have to make sure they don’t take any dumb penalties or hand the Stars any freebies. It’ll be extremely difficult to get them back.
3. Playoff Sam Bennett. He has a reputation as a guy who plays his best hockey when the chips are down and, man, he lived up to it in the opening round. He led Calgary’s forwards in shot attempts, was the lone Flames player to score multiple 5v5 goals, and he landed 22 hits(!) at 5v5. That’s double the next closest players (Elias Lindholm and Milan Lucic). This series is almost certainly going to be low-scoring, tight, and physical. I think that is tailor made for Bennett to have an impact. If he can bring the same kind of energy he did against Winnipeg, it’ll make a big difference for the Flames.
4. Denis the menace. You probably haven’t heard much of Denis Gurianov. If the Stars win this series, I think he’ll be a big reason why. He was extremely efficient at 5v5 this season, leading the Stars in goals/60, attempts/60, and chances/60. This guy is an offensive machine and the goal-starved Stars finally started to realize that as the year went on. Now, he’s routinely getting top-6 minutes and real opportunity to put his skills to use. The Stars have some big names on their roster but, outside of Tyler Seguin, I think Gurianov is the guy the Flames should be worried most about offensively.
5. Discipline is key. While Calgary’s penalty kill was very good in the opening round (two goals against in four games), they took way too many penalties. They just got away with it, in part, because Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele were not available. The Stars are healthy – and ranked 12th in PP goals/60 this year – so the Flames will have a tougher time surviving undisciplined play this time around. They have to do a better job of staying out of the box.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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