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Five things to watch in G2 of Calgary vs Dallas:
1. Mixing it up. Dallas is known for routinely putting lines in the blender. I think this is a situation that definitely calls for it. The Stars’ offenses was completely toothless in Game 1, creating just three high-quality chances and mustering up 1.1 Expected Goals. Their best player (Tyler Seguin) didn’t record a single shot and, quite honestly, was completely invisible for the entirety of the game. The Stars need to get him going, which probably means better linemates than Jason Dickinson and a vastly declining Corey Perry. I’d expect a shake up in this game. If not prior, certainly during. We’ll see what kind of spark that can create.
2. Rasmus Andersson. He has been a beast during these playoffs but last game might have been his best. Even by the low offensive standards Dallas set, they created absolutely nothing with Andersson on the ice. If he can replicate that kind of performance, there is ~40 minutes of 5v5 play per game accounted for where the Stars will have a very difficult time creating anything (20 vs Mark Giordano, 20 vs Andersson). That leaves very little wiggle room for them to make up ground.
3. Needed reinforcements. While the Stars didn’t create much in G1, they didn’t give up much either. Calgary was expected to score just 0.90 goals. They netted three, though, because Anton Khudobin disappointed – especially relative to his regular season play. The expectation is Ben Bishop will return to the lineup today, which would be big for Dallas. I don’t think he’s as likely to let in softy’s as Khudobin and, because of his size, he’s a tough guy to take eyes away from. Calgary’s in-zone offense must be better if they’re going to get three past Bishop.
4. Best on best. Johnny Gaudreau saw a lot of Miro Heiskanen in G1. He didn’t fare too well. In ~11:30 of H2H ice, the Flames generated one shot on goal. Yes, you read that correctly. They were completely neutered in that matchup and, with Dallas maintaining last change for another game, we’re going to see a lot of it again. The Flames are getting away with top line struggles (at 5v5) right now because the 3rd line is scoring. If that dries up at all, the burden is going to fall on the top line’s shoulders. They have to find a way to start carrying their weight.
5. Whistles away. Now that we’re in the actual playoffs, I think refs will be less trigger happy calling penalties. We saw that in G1 of this series and we certainly have seen it in others (such as the five overtime game between Tampa and Columbus). If that’s the case, we’re going to see a ton of 5v5 play. Dallas’ numbers in that gamestate were better than Calgary’s in the regular season and that carried forward into Tuesday’s opener. Despite the loss, Dallas controlled a 62.87% share of the expected goals at 5v5. If that turns into a trend, Calgary probably won’t be leading the series very long.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
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