I listed my
top-25 off-season questions last week. Sunday I covered question #1:
Should-Ryan-Strome-be-brought-back-and-if-so-what-kind-of-deal Today, it's question #2:
Has Jesper Fast played his last game as a Blueshirt?. Part of this question was tackled way back during the pandemic when I wrote an analysis of each player, bridging off Larry Brooks' columns of the same. For Fast, the blog was titled
Jesper Fast - will the Rangers want and be able to bring him back?"
Here is a portion of what Brooks wrote in his column:
There is a reason that Fast — four times running the team’s Players’ Player as voted by his peers and who just as easily as not could win it again this year if there is balloting for club awards — has been entrusted with important assignments by coaches Alain Vigneault and David Quinn.
It is because of the 28-year-old Swede’s indefatigable work habits, his commitment to detail, his willingness to battle and his devotion to play on the defensive side of the puck. You know about glue guys in the room? Fast has been a glue guy on the ice.
The Post has learned that management had preliminary discussions with Fast’s camp leading into the Feb. 24 trade deadline but were unable to come to an agreement on an extension, with the divide somewhat wide. The Blueshirts nevertheless declined to move Fast, instead retaining him for the drive to the playoffs. If this season does not resume, this will represent the other side of the coin on which deals were made for rentals.
Fast, who plays a grinding game that has taken a toll on his 6-foot, 180-pound frame, would appear to have more value to a contender than to a bad or rebuilding team. But essentially every legit contender — maybe not Colorado — is going to be up against it. And regardless of the Swede’s assets, it’s unlikely that teams will line up to throw money at a 12-goal scorer.
This is what i wrote at the time:
I am huge fan of Quickie. He does all the little things that have a tendency to go unnoticed, until he is no longer here and you wonder why those tasks aren't being done. He can move up and down the lineup, as seen by his usage over the years.
Fast is probably best suited to a third-line role, including copious time on the penalty kill. But he was on pace to exceed his career-highs in goals, assists and points with almost no power-play time. Granted those numbers are aided by skating on a line with Panarin, but he didn't look like a piker on that trio.
Fast is in the final year of a three-year, $5.85 million deal and earned every penny of that contract. He is the most defensively responsible forward on the squad, resulting in the ice time he receives. I am one of those who would love another three-year deal, even if the cost is close to $3 million a season, because of all he does for the squad. If GM Jeff Gorton can get him for that term on a lower AAV, sign me up now. The divide Brooks mentions concerns me, but as he said, maybe the drop in cap enables the team to find a way to bring back Fast.
The more glue guys - especially ones that can play - the better. .
Per Evolving Wild, see Strome column for more info on their prognostications, they project Fast for a three-year deal with a $2.969 AAV with a 29% likelihood of that length of a deal. A four-year deal, which has a 27% likelihood, has a $3.499 AAV. Evolving Wild projects out contracts from 1-7 years, with a one-year deal ($1.573 mil) having a 17% likelihood and two year ($1.973 mil) at 10%, My view is that a three-year deal is the most probable. a flat cap the next two years and $1 mil increase in year 3 makes taking a short term deal with the hopes of cashing in a bit less likely.
Fast is completing a three-year deal at a $1.85 mil AAV. Presuming that three-year deal could come to fruition, an increase of slightly more than $1 mil per year would seem to be a no brainer. On the face of it, yes, that's the case, but cap issues and lineup configuration both need to be factored in when making a decision.
Cap issues:
New York needs to determine who will be brought back. The Henrik Lundqvist contract situation ($8.5 mil AAV) is the overarching banner on how the team will proceed. Add in restricted free agents in Ryan Strome, Brendan Lemiuex, Anthony DeAngelo and Alexandar Georgiev. Then determine if you will buy out Marc Staal ($5.75 mil) and Brendan Smith ($4.35 mil) and you can see why the situation is complicated. Made especially so with $13.6 mil in cap room on a $81.5 million flat cap.
Lineup configuration:
The givens that look like they will be 100% back are Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Filip Chytil and Kappo Kakko. In the air, probable to return, are Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden and Lemieux, though trades could change that. The presumption is that Julien Gauthier will be in the lineup on Opening Day, the same with probable first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere. By my count, that's 10 players, before we even discuss Fast and Strome or Morgan Barron, who will get every chance to break camp with the team. Have I mentioned Phil Di Giuseppe, Vitali Kravtsov, Patrick Khodorenko and Austin Rueschhoff. In case the implication isn't clear, there is a roster crunch.
All the above is true. But take a look at how different the lineup was starting a minute into Game 1 against Carolina when Fast was injured. A stark change because Fast was in the top-six while also playing a major role on the penalty kill. His absence was palpable and quite evident. Moving forward, his role would be in the bottom-six, which is where he is likely better suited.
One theme that came out of the playoffs was a lack of team identity. Second was the need for a better bottom-six.
We have seen how much a game changer the Islanders' fourth line is, offset by the high salaries for that Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck trio. Same for Las Vegas, Carolina's bottom-six played a role in the win. When New York made the ECF and SCF runs, the bottom-six, and especially fourth line, were key contributors. Having a player like Fast on that fourth line would be ideal. But a $3 mil cap hit for a fourth liner, even if the other members of the trip are at the minimum, maybe too rich for the team. Especially when new deals need to be provided to Kako, Chytil, Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox, Igor Shesterkin and others over the next several seasons, so the impact is not just in 2020-21 but beyond.
I want him back, but you know my view on Quickie. He is the Swiss - really Swedish - army knife on this team, whose absence will be felt if he is gone. But tough decisions up and down the lineup and roster will need to be made.
What's your view?
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