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Praise the Stars, fear the Lightning |
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Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
This is not a Stanley Cup Final matchup we saw coming. But it is one that could be highly entertaining, particularly if the Stars continue to believe they are a team of destiny.
The best-of-seven Final starts Saturday (7:30 p.m., ET, NBC). Here is an overview and prediction:
The narrative: The Lightning were expected to reach the Stanley Cup Final and the Stars are a surprise. In the regular-season, the Lightning were the NHL’s No. 1 offensive team (3.47 goals scored per game) and the Stars were the NHL’s No. 2 defensive team (2.52 goals-against per game).
Stars in the bubble: Coach Rick Bowness’s team was 1-2 in the seeding round, and then knocked off the Calgary Flames in six games, the Colorado Avalanche in seven and the Vegas Golden Knights in five. After struggling to score goals in the regular-season, the Stars scored 2.95 goals per game in the playoffs.
Lightning in the bubble: Coach Jon Cooper’s team was 2-1 in the seeding round, and then dispatched the Columbus Blue Jackets in five games each and then took down the New York Islanders in six games. While still displaying a dangerous offense, the Lightning have also kept the puck out of their net. They own a 2.21 goals-against average in the postseason.
Intriguing stat: the Lightning are 5-1 in overtimes this postseason and the Stars are 4-0.
Injuries: Lightning, Steven Stamkos hasn’t played in the postseason and we have a better shot of answering whether we are alone in the universe than we do of persuading the Lightning to explain what’s up with Stamkos. Point and Anthony Cirella have undisclosed injuries, but are expected to play. Stars, Radek Faksa (No information).
Who wins the Conn Smythe if Dallas wins: Probably defenseman Miro Heiskanen, 21, who has 21 points in 22 games. He’s a future Norris Trophy winner. Anton Khudobin, Jamie Benn and Denis Gurianov might also be in the Smythe conversation
Who win the Conn Smythe if Tampa Bay wins: Probably Brayden Point, but Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman and Nikita Kucherov are in the mix.
What the Lightning need to win the series:
1. For Point to feel better:. No one is saying what Point’s injury is but the two games the Lightning lost against the Islanders came when Point was out of the lineup. Nikita Kucherov also doesn’t play as well without Point.
2. Remember who they are now: This season’s Lightning are more mentality tough, more composed and more committed to playing a complete game than last season’s Lightning team. You remember that 2018-19 Tampa Bay team: it won 62 games and then were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets. We haven’t seen that Lightning team.
3. Continue to let people believe the Lightning are merely an offensive team: This team is a complete team. The defense. led by Hedman, is underrated. Their postseason goals-against average of 2.21 is lower than the GAA owned by the Stars and the New York Islanders who were considered the best defensive teams in the postseason.
4. Stay disciplined: Because the Stars’ power play (27.3%) has carried them in the postseason. Almost a third of the Stars’ goals have come on the power play
What the Stars need to win the series:
1. Jamie Benn to be a Hulk-like force: He just needs to play like did in the Western Conference Finals. It’s been a few years since the Dallas captain has been this scary mixture of physical might and offensive touch.
2. Tighten up defensively: They need to play like they did in the regular-season. The Golden Knights looked dominant against the Stars, but couldn’t finish against Anton Khudobin. If the Stars surrender as many scoring chances against Tampa Bay as they did against Vegas, the Lightning will win because they will finish those chances.
3. Khudobin must match's Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy's performance level: Khudobin, a backup when the playoffs started, has been one of the Stars’ top performers. But this is still a big ask because Vasilevskiy (1.82, .931) might be the best goalie in the game. Khudobin has a 2.62 goals-against average and .920 save percentage.
4. Embrace the journey: The Stars are the momentum team of these playoffs: They believe in themselves, and they are playing with extreme confidence. They have to push themselves harder, to play even better than they did in the first three rounds. You have to improve every round to win the Stanley Cup.
Prediction: Stars don’t align and the Lightning win in six games
Blogger •HHOF Writer's column on the NHL • 
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