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fantastic back and forth from you all on the last post. This community has a strong sense of hockey passion and world class trolling! I go between nodding in appreciation and laughing in shame, and I love it all. Keep it coming (someone please find Kooleus!)
George Malik is not only a friend of mine, he’s also the king of international hockey digging. He produced a tweet from HPK Hameenlinna in Finland that shows Jared McIsaac is no on loan. They make it clear it’s “for the season” and an opt out is not mentioned. This isn’t a terrible idea. McIsaac needs ice time and development because of injury. Yzerman may not want to throw him into the mix this year, or it may be due to the flux of the NHL in general. That brings me to the next point.
Gary Bettman released a state of the union recently, and there are some eye opening bullet points. First, the start date is still very much in flux. Early thoughts of November training camps seem to have been pushed out of the conversation. The season may will be a 21 only season (not 20/21).
The next bizarre point, talk of a “Canadian only” division has actually been considered. Essentially, NHL travel is expensive. In some cases, equipment can’t be “flown” and has to be driven while the team does a charter flight. Reducing travel expenses is high on the priority list of GMs. The last CBA ensured players could have their own rooms on the road. Add to that per diem envelopes and it’s a bit of a pricey trip. The AHL is trying to eliminate almost all team flights. They are looking at limited travel for teams and having more nearby competition. Some teams won’t have a choice but to fly at least some of the time, but you may see more repeat opponents.
The tough part is that “IF” ( and it’s a big if) the NHL did have Canadian teams all stay north of the border, some teams would miss their biggest draws of the year. Pretty much any time Toronto or Montreal come to town you’re going to get a nice turnout in markets that don’t sell out. It is a fun night in Detroit when Toronto is in the house. I hate to say it, but the place is rocking!
Speaking of tickets, Bettman also gave a bit of a startling statistic. We’ve heard over and over how the NHL can’t make it on empty stadiums. Bettman stated that HALF of the NHL revenue comes at the gate. In a league with a 50/50 HRR split, that literally means that no fans means there’s not enough to pay players full salary. At 5-6 billion in revenue, the players are at 10% escrow, meaning that 60 percent went their way and they had to give 10 back. This is where things start to get “apocalyptic” (per my headline). I believe it’s also why the start date hasn’t been nailed down. Cities need to be “open for business”. If you have “reduced” capacity, season tickets may have to be refunded and those holders will have to be in a lottery as to which games they get to see. Especially teams that fill up for almost every game.
The obvious thought starts to lean toward a reduced season schedule. If these teams can’t play until January and you want to wrap up by summer (the Olympics are back on and have been rescheduled) there’s just no way to do it. The final piece of the revenue issue is a clause that several broadcasting partners have. If the NHL plays fewer than 82 games, they have to return a portion of the broadcast revenue. It was written as insurance against a strike or lockout. At this point, revenues may have to be refunded for last season at a time when the league is already a billion dollars short of projections. Going into another season without fans and losing a percentage of broadcast revenue is a disaster. The two issues can’t coincide.
The final piece is, viewership of the current format seems to be trailing off a bit. The numbers aren’t official, but there have been concerns that the empty stadium experience won’t hold the “casual” fan (who tune in for playoffs). In all honesty, I’m hearing die hard fans that aren’t watching. Until the math is done, this “bubble hockey” experiment may have barely broken even due to the added expenses and lack of tickets. P.S - the Winter Classic is still up in the air as well.
Moving on from the doom and gloom, I do believe there is a way forward. The league needs to negotiate a shorter season with their television partners and make sure fans can come to games. That may just mean waiting. Trying to “forge ahead” could be disastrous for teams with shallow pockets. I don’t think anyone wants to see the league running teams the way they did with the Coyotes. It was a constraint gripe, and if multiple teams need that support, it will not work out. I would consider pushing Seattle back, but that’s just me.
More information will continue to trickle out. Bettman has been “priming” the industry here and there. When the financials of the playoffs are in, it will help to determine next steps. So, where are you at? How long should the league wait, and what should next season look like? Fill up that comment section and maybe we can figure this thing out!
Detroit Red Wings Blogger • 
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