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A couple Calgary Flames notes as we approach the heart of the off-season:
1) The San Jose Sharks are expected to close on a deal for Devan Dubnyk in the very near future. If and when that happens, it is good news for the Calgary Flames on a few different fronts.
Of 46 goaltenders to play 2,000+ minutes at 5v5 over the last two seasons, Martin Jones ranks dead last in save percentage. The Sharks were always going to bring in *someone* to try and help.
If it is Dubnyk, that takes the Sharks out of the running for other goaltenders the Flames are, or may be, interested in; be it Cam Talbot, Darcy Kuemper, or anybody else.
There’s also the fact that Dubnyk, well, isn’t good. The Wild were one of the best teams in the league at suppressing shots and scoring chances this past season. Dubnyk still struggled mightily.
Using the same criteria as mentioned above, Dubnyk ranks 40/46 in save percentage over the last two seasons. He has played very poorly and, at 34, it’s fair to wonder how much gas is left in the tank.
Not only would a Jones/Dubnyk tandem be horrible, but it’d be expensive. The two of them will combine to earn more than $10 million next season. That’s a lot of money to spend on goaltending, let alone bad goaltending at a time where teams are trying to be stingier with their money due to COVID-19.
San Jose running out a tandem of Jones and Dubnyk would almost certainly end horribly for them; and well for all the teams – like Calgary – that get to face the Sharks on a frequent basis.
Let's hope that deal gets finalized.
2) The Flames have been linked to Oliver Ekman-Larsson quite often in recent weeks. A deal seems unlikely, though, because OEL has a full no-movement clause. He is reportedly only willing to go to two teams – at least right now – and the Flames aren’t one of them.
I...I don’t think this is a bad thing. OEL is a big name but, in recent years, he has failed to live up to it. The surface level stats still check out – especially given the team he plays for – but his on-ice impacts show some red flags; particularly defensively.
Evolving-Hockey.com suggests Ekman-Larsson was only worth +1.2 Goals Above Replacement over the last two seasons. His defensive play (-2.6 GAR) hasn’t been good and he hasn’t driven offense nearly enough to justify what he’s making (and for how long).
Could a change of scenery help him? Absolutely.
But, at 29, it’s simply possible his best days are behind him and he is on a downwards trajectory. After all, Mark Giordano is the exception, not the rule.
It’ll be interesting to see just how high the cost of acquisition is with OEL. If it is moderate – because of his contract and a couple down years – I can understand a team making the gamble and hoping some adjustments will get more out of him.
If it is high, though, and a team has to part with high-end assets I think they’d be better served looking elsewhere. The Flames being blocked here may well be a blessing in disguise.
Recent posts:
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Flames linked to OEL, Rasmus Ristolainen
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Gaudreau and Monahan deserve the heat they're taking
Changes are coming in Calgary
On the Flames’ rumored interest in Josh Anderson
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