The Rangers are inching closer to arbitration hearings with Ryan Strome (Nov. 5) and Brendan Lemiuex (Nov. 6). Per Larry Brooks, no real traction has been made in discussions amongst the various parties. In Strome' case, this comes as little surprise, since there appears to be a significant divergence of opinion as to his worth. But for Lemiuex, based on the type of season he had and what should be his expectations, the gap between the offer and ask should be a lot narrower and facilitate a deal completion.
We have discussed Strome and Lemiuex, especially Strome ad nauseum, ad infinitum. Even when a decision is reached as to his future path - be it avoiding arbitration, going to arb and accepting the award, walking away and having the player accept or a complete separation from the organization - chatter will still remain. Strome, more so his value and how much of a product he is of playing with Artemi Panarin, is like the third rail for many Rangers' fans, and possibly for the organization as well.
Strome, coming off a career season at age 26 in which he recorded 59 points (18-41) in easing Panarin’s transition to Broadway, is going to have an extremely strong case in arbitration. Start at somewhere around $4.6M and go from there. It’s the “from there” that is somewhat concerning to the Blueshirts, who do not envision No. 16 as the long-term answer in the second-line center’s slot. Indeed, there is every chance they will give Filip Chytil first crack at that assignment this season. In that case, Strome would be an insurance policy; an expensive one, too.
Depending upon his comparables, Strome could nudge into the $5.2M to $5.5M range. Since Dec. 31, 2018, Strome has 86 points (34-52) in 115 games. Over that same stretch, Strome is 32nd among NHL centers in scoring and 44th in five-on-five points by pivots, per Natural Stat Trick. He is going to get paid.
And yes, the Rangers would be able to walk away from Strome, but for this year only, he would have the right to return to the team on its arbitration bid. So if the Blueshirts come in, say, at $4.4M, Strome comes in at $5.4M, and the arbitrator grants an award of $5.1M, the team could walk away and the player could walk back for the $4.4M.
If indeed the difference between the Rangers’ bid and the award is that substantial, the walkaway/walkback is the likely scenario. Of course, if Strome could find a team willing to beat the Blueshirts’ offer within four days after being notified of the walkaway, he could sign with that club as a free agent.
All the above is pretty much in line with what we have discussed. The two big questions are: first, what type of $ figure will the Rangers propose and Strome ask for, and second, for one or two years. Since Strome would be a UFA after 2020-21 if he signs a one-year deal, unless the Rangers were willing to give him $5+ million and likely closer to $6 mil as an AAV, it's highly unlikely to impossible he will be under contract for 2021-22 in New York. The only possible exception is if Strome has major concerns as to what the marketplace will look like due to the flat cap and post-pandemic landscape, so I will give it a 1% chance of occurring.
Strome had a $3.1 million AAV last season, meaning the Rangers have to submit an arb figure at least 10% above that figure. New York has to balance providing him enough of an uptick in value while staying below the walkaway threshold and not be too far below what Strome requests, allowing the arbitrator to find a common ground. If the arb award is let's say $4.6 million, even though that is above the walkaway figure, if that amount is close to what the Rangers originally offered, I think Strome stays and New york does not walk away. If it's closer to the $5.2-$5.5 million figure that Brooks mentions, then the team walks away and Strome has to decide if he will accept what New York offered. If that figure is reasonable, say $4.25 million, I am unsure Strome will be able to beat that amount in the open market, since the prevailing view is to a certain extent that his plift in production was Panarin generated.
Let's say New York walks away and Strome doesn't return, then what? The two "best" centers on the market are Erik Haula and Mikael Granlund. Haula had that magical season for Las Vegas in 2017-18, but missed two-thirds of the following season with an injury and saw his production fall off a cliff this past season, especially after getting off to a solid start. Granlund notched 69 points for Minnesota in 2016-17, earning a three-year, $17.25 million contract. He nearly matched that output with 67 points the following season, but struggled a bit in 2018-19, landing in Nashville, where like Haula, he struggled following a trade. Both players meet the Finnish running mate criteria that Brooks feels is vital for Kappo Kakko, though that should not be the major reason to bring either one in.
Haula to me profiles as a 3C. If Filip Chytil could be the 2C, I might see bringing in Haula to play on the third line. But since that is not really the case, if Strome walks, I think they do turn to Granlund, who should come in a bit cheaper than the current Rangers pivot. Granlund is solid defensively and won 48.7% of his draws this season, which is an upgrade over Strome between the dots, though he hasn’t taken a substantive number of face offs in years as his usage has been more of a winger than a center. On the flip side, Granlund showed in the past that he can produce offensively, both goal scoring and point-production wise, possibly making him a viable option, especially on a short-term, meaning one-year deal, as a flier for the second line. If Chytil proves capable, then Granlund could be moved down to the third line.
Here is a pretty good overview look at Granlund: View is that we should expect some kind of positive regression, at least to the mean. Don’t use him on the penalty kill and he needs to be comfortable in his situation to produce. The big question, not covered in the blog, is what type of salary does Granlund expect or want.
https://www.ontheforecheck.com/2020/9/23/21450349/2019-20-nashville-predators-player-report-card-season-review-mikael-granlund-unrestricted-free-agent
Right now, all this is pure speculation. But the longer this goes, coupled with the team's history of avoiding arbitration and walking away from Nik Zherdev, when they felt his award was too high, means that losing Strome is a possibility. The hearing is eight days away, let's see if any traction is made and what the submitted figures are. That might give us a better sense if the two sides will reach an accord.
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