The Carolina Hurricanes re-signed forward Warren Foegele to a one-year contract a couple days ago, worth $2.15 million. In this article, I’ll give some thoughts on the contract and will look to analyze whether the price was fair.
To start, the Hurricanes aren't in a bad situation cap-wise, so a one-year deal at just above $2 million really isn’t overly significant for the team. It’s also a pretty reasonable deal and nothing you’d have a huge reaction to, for better or worse.
That said, it does seem to be slightly above market value. If this was a two-year deal, I would have said the price was a bit closer to where it should have been but on just a one-year deal, $2.15 million is a bit high.
Foegele scored 13 goals and 30 points in 68 NHL games this year and plays in Carolina’s middle-six. One of the best players to use as a comparable when it comes to determining a suitable contract would be Sonny Milano, a winger who’s also 24 years old and received a two-year deal this summer, which carries a $1.7 million AAV. Here’s how Milano's goals and points per 82 game averages compare against Foegele's:
Generally, the two players have pretty similar numbers. They had very similar points per 82 averages this past season and while Foegele did average more goals per 82, their career goals per 82 averages are the same, while Milano’s career points per 82 average is actually higher than Foegele’s.
Obviously this is just one comparable, but I did use quite a few more players when analyzing Milano’s contract. In doing so, I found that Milano’s deal came at a pretty fair price, meaning the price of Foegele's contract would be higher than those comparables would have projected as well.
On a one-year deal, I would have expected Foegele to be around $1.5 million, if not even lower, especially considering the current market. That said, the deal doesn’t leave the Hurricanes with any sort of cap issues and while it may be a bit higher than expected, Foegele is a good, young player who could make an impact with the team in the coming years.
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Here’s today’s poll question (results and discussion will be posted in a future article):
How many points will Warren Foegele score next season?