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Trying to plan for the 2020-21 NHL season is ridiculously complicated

November 12, 2020, 9:52 AM ET [2 Comments]
Kevin Allen
Blogger •HHOF Writer's column on the NHL • RSSArchiveCONTACT
When NBA owners agreed to a deal with their players for the 2020-21 season, the plan seemed so simple.

Seventy-two games. Dec. 22 start. NBA Finals in June. Hope to have fans in arenas at some point.

NBA officials made it seem easy.

But the decisions surrounding professional sports next season under a thriving pandemic are not easy. They are tortuously difficult. Gary Bettmah has been NHL commissioner 27 years and deciding what the 2020-21 season will look like might be the most agonizing decision he has ever faced.

And this is a man who has been to the brink of multiple owner-labor conflicts, and even cancelled the 2004-05 season. But in that situation, players and owners had been warned about the potential loss of a season. Everyone built war chests to varying degrees. This pandemic is more challenging because no one saw it coming and no one knows when it’s going away.

This week America reached the rate of about 1 million new cases of Covid-19 per week. More than 1,000 are dying per day and the expectation is the death count will be more than 2,000 or more per week within a couple of weeks.

Do those numbers inspire faith that we will be filling arenas with fans any time soon?

Good news also came this week with the revelation that a vaccine trial has promising results. Ninety percent of those who were inoculated didn’t contract the virus. Some doses of the vaccine will be ready within weeks, but it’s going to go to vulnerable people first, plus front line medical workers. It could be the spring before we get enough people vaccinated to make a major difference. Still, medical experts say the virus will be with us, and killing people, throughout 2021.

The NHL can’t be sure when it will have fans again. Hopefully it will be this season, but maybe not.

Plus every NHL city has different Covid rules. Thirty-one teams means Bettman has 31 different sets of rules to live by.

That’s why Bettman has such a challenging decision. He needs to keep everyone as safe as possible, and that means fans, arena employees and the general public. And he has to do that without his teams suffering major financial losses. Teams expect to lose money in this pandemic, but there are limits.

Everyone wants to play, but no one wants to hemorrhage red ink.

If the NHL plays 82 games, players are scheduled to collectively earn between $2.3 and $2.5 billion dollars. If the NHL played a full season without fans, teams would lose an estimated average of $1.48 million in gate revenue. Obviously, high-profile teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers have higher gate revenue expectations, and teams like the Florida Panthers and Arizona Coyotes are below that average.

The NHL doesn’t have a television deal that will ride to its rescue. The league receives $200 million per year from NBC, and $432 million Canadian ($332.6 million) per season. That’s roughly $17 million per team. You have some advertising and sponsorship deals, although it’s possible they might less during a pandemic. Many companies have had their revenues decreased during the pandemic.

Plus, the NHL must pay its management and coaching staff, trainers, medical personnel, arena staff, scouts, plus other team personnel. Travel costs have to be considered. The cost of testing players regularly is expensive.

It’s been estimated that if the NHL played 82 games, a team could lose as much as $80 million.

The NHL has been on an upward trajectory for several years, and Bettman needs to make sure the league is set-up to continue that rise as soon as the pandemic runs its course.

That’s why Bettman is under immense pressure to get the 2020-21 plan right. This virus is rampant in some NHL cities and less so in others. And then it reverses. Canada’s border restrictions are still an issue. Players don’t want to play in a bubble because they don’t want to be away from their family.

The NHL wants to start Jan. 1, but that doesn't seem all that likely.

We haven’t even mentioned the impact sporting events have on their city’s local economy. When an arena is full, about 500 extra people work for the team in terms of concessions, security and medical support. Fans also spend money in the areas around the arena. Those workers have a critical investment in Bettman's

So much is at stake here. Bettman, in concert with the NHL Players Association, did an exemplary job creating the bubble playoffs. That could not have worked out better. No positive Covid-19 tests. Quality hockey. The season was completed to most people’s satisfaction.

We have reason to believe Bettman can again work through the issues of this pandemic.

But the 2020 bubble accomplishment was minor league compared to the decisions Bettman now must make. This is like trying to push the train back on the tracks in the midst of a hurricane.
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