Following the Rangers' end of their season, as has been tradition the past several years, regardless of regular season or playoffs, I put together a list of the top-25 off-season questions. Over the past few months, as noted the last few blogs, I covered the majority previously. In this blog, I am handling question #9, "Is Pavel Buchnevich now "expendable" due to Lafreniere coming on board or will the Rangers regret dealing him based on his untapped potential?"
If you took a poll of 100 Rangers' fans, I would say that the vast majority would vote Buchnevich off Blueshirts' Island. Taken in the third round, 75th overall in 2013, Buchnevich has become the latest player to leave many of us wanting more. He jumped from 20 points in 41 appearances as a rookie in 2016-17 to 43 points in 74 games last season, including 17 on the power play. But Buchnevich regressed early in 2018-19, year 1 of the David Quinn regime, landing in the coach's doghouse, including serving as a healthy scratch several times. Despite dressing for only 64 games, the Russian winger still scored a career-high 21 goals - the majority of which came in the final quarter of the season- while finishing five points shy of the 43 he mustered in 2017-18, lending credence to the view he had turned the corner.
Following the 2018-19 campaign, Buchnevich signed a two-year contract with a $3.25 million AAV with the Rangers in July of 2019. Last year, despite enduring nine- and five-game pointless streak, Buch posted 16 goals and 30 assists in 68 games, setting a career-high in points while mainly skating on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Buchnevich has always been solid 5v5, improving slightly as he matured, but last year, he made solid strides defensively, which has been somewhat lost in the mix with everything else going on with the team.
Unless New York's season goes completely pear shaped, I expect Buch to complete the 2020-21 with the team. There is no benefit in trading him, unless the team is overwhelmed by an offer. But after the season, as an RFA, is when the challenge takes place. The question on everyone's mind is "Will New York re-sign Buchnevich or trade him before extending him?"
New York has Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider locked up long term on the wing. Kaapo Kakko is young and expected to be part of the solution. Alexis Lafreniere was just drafted and ups the talent pool substantially. Vitali Kravtsov, the jury is still very far out as to what he will become and will that happen in the US. Julien Gauthier should contend for a third line spot and has the potential to be a borderline top-six player, while Brendan Lemiuex appears destined to be a bottom-six winger. One other possible future winger, at least in the near-term, is Morgan Barron, though he may remain at center.
If Kakko and Laf are what we hope and expect, the top two lines are pretty set. That makes Buchnevich a third liner, though that might be partially dependent on moving one of those winger from the left to the right side. Kravtsov would appear to have a path to playing time, despite what he said in his interview. If he does come over and shows that he is capable of filling a top-nine spot, the decision on Buch gets mildly easier.
A restricted free agent with arb rights after this season, I believe Buch is at least two years away from unrestricted free agency. I could see New York inking Buch to a two-year contract, especially if Kakko has not yet panned and/or Kravtsov has either not come over or taken a step forward. If the team could ink him to a deal with a $4.5-5.25 mil AAV for those two seasons, would you? Does NY need to buy out a year of unrestricted free agency to make a deal like that palatable?
I may be in the minority, but seeing the growth from Buch and my view that there is another level he can get to, I would like him to stay. Granted, we have been frustrated by Buch not reaching the level we think he is capable of reaching. But he has exceeded some expectations as the 75th overall pick. In addition, when factoring what's in the pipeline along with potentially available in free agency next season, a one-year deal makes sense at a minimum, and possibly
longer.