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The NHL and NHLPA have tentatively agreed to begin the 2021 season on January 13th, which means the season is *just* over a month away.
As such, I can begin to shift focus to the upcoming season rather than the one that, you know, ended in March.
To kick things off I’m going to be looking at three reasons to be optimistic about the Calgary Flames in the upcoming year.
Goaltending
For years netminding has been a concern for the Flames. If not the team’s Achilles Heel, there were at least worries it could prove to be. I don’t see that happening next season.
You can debate whether Jacob Markstrom is an elite goaltender, but there’s no debate he is above average. He developed into a very good starter in Vancouver, with his best work coming last season.
Only two of the 34 most used goaltenders faced more high-danger shots per 60 than Markstrom (5v5) yet he still posted strong numbers across the board.
Say what you want about the Flames but their defensive metrics were a whole lot better than the Canucks’ last season. They should be able to create a more goalie-friendly environment where Markstrom can flourish.
Then, behind Markstrom, you have David Rittich. BSD out-performed the likes of John Gibson, Frederik Andersen, Marc-Andre Fleury, Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby – in terms of (5v5) save percentage and high-danger SV% – so having him around as the backup seems like a nice luxury to me; especially in a potentially condensed schedule.
For once goaltending is destined to be a strength rather than a weakness.
Regression
The bad news is Johnny Gaudreau did not have the kind of season anyone would have expected. The good news is poor luck had as much to do with it as anything else.
Last season Gaudreau generated 5v5 expected goals, shot attempts, and scoring chances at the 2nd highest rates of his career. Despite having one of his best years in terms of creating looks, his points/60 was the lowest since his rookie year.
I’m sure Sean Monahan going ghost for long periods of time didn’t help his cause. Perhaps adjusting to a new coach also played a part.
I think bigger factors, though, were his individual shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. Both were career lows.
Even when Gaudreau created chances – which, again, he did at one of the best rates of his career – they simply wouldn’t go in. I mean, think back to breakaways alone. How many times did Gaudreau have a clear cut break and fail to convert? It had to be comfortably in the double digits.
If he finished a few more of them, and his on-ice shooting percentage was in line with the norm, we’d probably be talking about a point per game player. The playoffs were a different story, but Gaudreau wasn’t nearly as bad as people made him out to be in the regular season.
I think he is a really good bet to bounce back this year. That, of course, will make the Flames a better team.
Soft competition
Being placed in an all-Canadian division will be good for the Calgary Flames.
While I’m quite high on the Toronto Maple Leafs, they finished 12th in points percentage a season ago. 12th. And they are the powerhouse team in the division.
Edmonton is poor defensively and has no goaltending. Vancouver is poor defensively and has no goaltending. Winnipeg is poor defensively. They have goaltending but, well, they still aren’t very good. Montreal was quite active this off-season – I loved the Tyler Toffoli signing – but they still don’t scare me. Then there is the lowly Ottawa Senators.
The NHL hasn’t announced a playoff format for the upcoming season but if they’re going with four playoff teams per division – rather than the highest eight teams from two divisions in relatively close proximity – I think the Flames have a *very* real shot at making it back into the playoffs.
Let’s say Toronto and Edmonton are playoff locks. I don’t necessarily agree with the latter – they’re still rolling with Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith – but we’ll go with it. Then, we’ll rule out the retooling Ottawa Senators, who are trotting out Nikita Zaitsev and Erik Gudbranson as their top two RHD.
That would leave two playoff spots up for grabs with Calgary, Montreal, Winnipeg, and Vancouver fighting it out. Winnipeg couldn’t make the ‘playoffs’ last season with the Vezina winner between the pipes and Vancouver replaced their B2B team MVP with a guy who posted an .897 SV% a season ago.
If the Flames manage to finish ahead of those two – forget about Montreal – then we’re looking at a playoff team.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent posts:
Examining the worst move made by each Canadian team
Examining the best move made by each Canadian team
Taking stock of an all-Canadian division
Grading the Flames’ off-season moves
Flames make smart gamble on Dominik Simon
Flames sign Andrew Mangiapane to two-year bridge deal
Flames make risky bet on Chris Tanev
Flames sign Jacob Markstrom to long-term deal
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