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The Calgary Flames will play their entire regular season schedule, and as many as two playoff rounds, against Canadian teams.
Given as much, the majority of my writing leading up to – and during the season – will focus on the North division.
With that in mind, I thought it’d be fun to my picks for inner-division awards.
Rocket Richard: Auston Matthews
Matthews was my outright pick to win the award so, obviously, he’s my choice if we’re zeroing in on a seven-team division.
It is not an exaggeration to say Matthews has been the best 5v5 goal scorer since he entered the league.
He is four goals shy of Ovechkin for top spot in raw volume but Matthews played *checks notes* 31 fewer games. If they played an equal amount of games, and Matthews maintained the same production level, he’d rank 1st by eight goals.
As such, it should be no surprise to anyone that Matthews ranks 1st in 5v5 goals per minute. Nobody is more efficient at filling the net at full-strength.
Last year the 23-year-old was on pace for 55 tallies before COVID brought the season to a halt.
I see no reason why he can’t produce at that sort of rate this season considering he gets upwards of 10 games against defensive disasters like Ottawa (they want to try ERIK GUDBRANSON as RD1), Winnipeg (they finished 29th in expected goals against/60 last year), and Vancouver (27th in xGA/60 last year).
Selke: Matthew Tkachuk
No. 19 has been a high-end two-way winger since Day 1. He has *always* played on Calgary’s matchup line, and he has always excelled in that role.
The Flames have given up fewer shot attempts, and scoring chances, per 60 minutes with Tkachuk on the ice than without in all four years since he joined the team.
Tkachuk has brought it defensively vs top competition, and drawn an abundance of penalties, while producing points with 1st line efficiency. His raw totals are starting to soar, too, with Tkachuk averaging 75 points per 82 games over the last two seasons.
Wingers generally don’t win the Selke but I think Tkachuk has it in him to contend, especially with all of Canada – and their media – zeroed in on him on a nightly basis.
Norris: Quinn Hughes
This is another case where I picked him to win the award outright. I’ll defer to my write-up in the Norris Trophy hotstove as to why I’m so high on his chances.
Let me hit you with some facts about Vancouver’s wonderkid. Roman Josi was the only defender to put up more regular season points (26 in 31 GP) than Quinn Hughes (25 in 29 GP) after the turn of the calendar. He was a point producing machine.
Hughes’ on-ice impact was also remarkably strong. His relative numbers were among the best in the league during that period. Of the 158 most utilized defenders, Hughes’ relative CF of +6.33% was good for 9th. Believe it or not, a lot of that stemmed from his defensive play. Vancouver allowed 11.45 fewer shot attempts per 60 *with* Hughes on the ice, which was the 4th highest differential.
Hughes is evidently one of the best offensive, and play-driving, defenders in the league. I think his defensive game is a lot better than most recognize, too.
With declining 34-year-old Alex Edler, and the guy from the corner store, as the other left-defenders on the roster, Hughes is going to get all the ice in the world. I expect him to make the most of it.
Calder: Tim Stutzle
Ottawa Senators head coach D.J. Smith already confirmed that the team’s top pick will be coming to Canada and playing the full season with the Senators.
The 18-year-old offensive wizard played a big role on Mannheim in Germany last season and was very productive there. Obviously, the Senators aren’t making him leave a good situation in his home country during the middle of the pandemic if they didn’t plan on using him.
I expect he will walk into a top-6 role at even-strength and steady ice time on the power play. While I’m not sure he’ll light the league on fire right away, he should be productive. There aren’t many – any? – rookies in the Canadian division entering the league in better situations to contribute right away.
Considering the talent he has, the role he’ll play, and some of the soft defenses he’ll run into regularly, he is my pick.
Vezina: Jacob Markstrom
Markstrom was right there with Connor Hellebuyck, last year’s Vezina winner, in several key categories. He finished just below in 5v5 save percentage (.925 vs .929) and high-danger save percentage (.936 vs .942). Markstrom, like Hellebuyck, posted those remarkably strong numbers on a putrid defensive team.
The difference between the two is Hellebuyck remains on a team that can’t defend. Winnipeg made no meaningful upgrades to their defense this off-season.
Calgary lost some bodies – T.J. Brodie being the most important – but they still have 2018-19 Norris winner Mark Giordano as well as a budding defensive stud in Rasmus Andersson. They will be competent. Or, at the very least, a step above the defensive disaster the Canucks were last season.
Hart: Auston Matthews
I think the Maple Leafs will win the Canadian division with a fair bit of breathing room. I also think Matthews will win the Rocket Richard. Add to that the fact his defensive game has grown leaps and bounds – last season he finished with a higher even-strength defense GAR than names like Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar, per Evolving-Hockey.com – and he has a very real shot at the Hart Trophy. He is truly developing into one of the most impactful players in the league and I think he’ll get rewarded for that this season.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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