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The Calgary Flames will play their entire regular season schedule, and as many as two playoff rounds, against Canadian teams.
Given as much, the majority of my writing leading up to – and during the season – will focus on the North division.
I recently shared my inner-division award picks, as will as some players who seem poised for breakout campaigns.
Today I'll be sharing a few bold predictions.
Jacob Markstrom will win the Vezina
Markstrom is not a big name like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price, Tuukka Rask or Connor Hellebyuck; you know, names you generally associate with the award.
With that said, Markstrom was right there with last year’s winner, Connor Hellebuyck, in 5v5 save percentage and 5v5 high-danger save percentage. He was quietly elite for a Vancouver team that allowed even-strength chances at a higher rate than the likes of Ottawa, New Jersey, and New York (Rangers). Yes, they were *that* bad.
While Calgary did lose some important defensive personnel this off-season – namely T.J. Brodie – they still have Mark Giordano. Rasmus Andersson looks like he could be a defensive stalwart for years to come, and Juuso Valimaki is a highly touted prospect who just lit the SM-liiga on fire. There’s enough there to be a competent defensive group; especially with how much emphasis Geoff Ward seems to put on play away from the puck.
Quinn Hughes will win the Norris
I predicted Hughes would win this award in a hotstove last month so I’ll defer to my explanation there:
Let me hit you with some facts about Vancouver’s wonderkid. Roman Josi was the only defender to put up more regular season points (26 in 31 GP) than Quinn Hughes (25 in 29 GP) after the turn of the calendar. He was a point producing machine.
Hughes’ on-ice impact was also remarkably strong. His relative numbers were among the best in the league during that period. Of the 158 most utilized defenders, Hughes’ relative CF of +6.33% was good for 9th. Believe it or not, a lot of that stemmed from his defensive play. Vancouver allowed 11.45 fewer shot attempts per 60 *with* Hughes on the ice, which was the 4th highest differential.
Hughes is evidently one of the best offensive, and play-driving, defenders in the league. I think his defensive game is a lot better than most recognize, too.
With declining 34-year-old Alex Edler, and the guy from the corner store, as the other left-defenders on the roster, Hughes is going to get all the ice in the world. I expect him to make the most of it.
Tyson Barrie will contend for the (defensive) scoring title
Barrie put up 39 points last season and was largely underwhelming by the eye. That, along with COVID implications, played a part in him settling for a modest one-year deal when a season ago he seemed poised to hit it big in free agency.
I think Edmonton is the best possible landing spot for him, though, and that’s not an exaggeration. His best attributes are a) moving the puck at even-strength and; b) running a power play.
He has several all-world forwards on the team to feed passes to and jumpstart rushes at evens. And he is walking into a situation where he will be QB1 on the league’s most dangerous power play.
The cherry on top is a ton of games against weak defensive teams (Ottawa, Vancouver, etc.). There is real potential for Barrie to post video game-like numbers this season.
I could see him going from 39 points in 70 games to 50+ in 56. That'll put him in the same realm as the likes of Roman Josi and John Carlson.
Patrik Laine will be in the mix for the Rocket Richard
Laine scored 30 goals in 2018-19, and 28 goals last season. There are rumors he feels underappreciated, and underused, in Winnipeg and would welcome a change of scenery.
Despite potential disgruntlement, I am betting on Laine having the best year of his career. I think the addition of Paul Stastny, who is still a competent top-6 center, will benefit him greatly at 5v5, and Laine is still a big piece of an extremely talented top PP unit.
Then, as mentioned above, there is the fact Laine will play in a ton of high-scoring games against poor defensive teams.
And, on top of all else, this is a contract year. If Laine wants to be paid like the superstar he thinks he is – be it in Winnipeg or elsewhere – he needs to put up big numbers; particularly when it comes to goals.
Whether he is happy or not, the playing circumstances are far from dire and there is plenty of incentive to be quiet and put the best foot forward. I’m expecting big time production from Laine.
numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
Recent posts:
Breakout picks from the North Division
2021 NHL award predictions: North Division edition
On the Flames’ rumored interest in Travis Hamonic
Are the Bruins interested in Noah Hanifin?
Three reasons to be optimistic about the Flames in 2021
Grading the Flames’ off-season moves
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