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The Calgary Flames open their season in a week. A week! Today, I’m going to go player-by-player and share one thing I’d like to see from each defenseman in 2021.
Mark Giordano - Flattening the curve. I fully expected Mark Giordano to take a step back last season; but not necessarily to the extent it did. He was worth 7.0 Goals Above Replacement in 2019-20. While impressive, it was his lowest GAR since *checks notes* 2008-09. Giordano also had his worst year (production wise) since 2012-13. Rather than embracing somewhat of a rebuild, the Flames elected to retool on the fly. They spent a boatload of money on a high-end starting goaltender, added much-needed depth up front (particularly on the wings), and revamped the defense (for better or worse). Obviously, they did so with contending in mind. Those moves will be all for naught if Giordano doesn’t play at a top-tier level. I don’t expect him to ever match the heights reached in 2018-19, but the Flames need to make sure that kind of dip is a one-off rather than the beginning of a clear decline. If it’s the latter, that puts a real cap on the team’s ceiling.
Chris Tanev - Plus defense. That’s what the Flames paid Tanev for, and that’s what they need him to provide. For a long, long, time he was quietly one of the best defensive defenders in the league. His even-strength defense was worth at least 2.3 GAR in nine consecutive seasons. His average during that time was +4.75. For perspective, that’d be good for 19th among defenders last season – just ahead of Jared Spurgeon.
But Tanev didn’t come close to that number in 2019-20. Things took a turn for the worse, to say the least. He finished with a *negative* GAR and the Canucks, who struggled mightily defensively, allowed shots and chances at a higher rate with Tanev on the ice than without. The bar was fairly low and he couldn’t clear it. It’d be one thing if he was in the middle of his 20s. But that kind of dip coming at 30 is concerning to say the least.
The Flames looked past it, clearly, and committed pretty big term/money to Tanev. It’s only going to pay off if a) he stays healthy and; b) can get back to the defensive ace he was for the better part of a decade. If he can’t, he is going to get exposed playing on the top pairing alongside Giordano.
Rasmus Andersson - The next step. Andersson, for my money, is the best pure defender on the Flames roster. Yes, I have him right there with Giordano. I just think his smarts, positioning, stick, and growing level of assertiveness makes him very difficult to get by – be it on the rush or in-zone. Andersson excelled when given top-4 minutes last season, but it was generally in place of someone (like an injured Travis Hamonic). He has never played a top-4 role full-time. That’s changing this year, and I think he can handle it. He’ll need to if he is going to pair with Noah Hanifin.
Noah Hanifin - Make better decisions. Everyone makes mistakes. Sometimes, very ugly ones. But Hanifin has a tendency to be on the wrong side of a lot of borderline embarrassing plays. Whether it’s getting danced around by an opposing depth defender, biting on an obvious fake, or throwing a soft pass right to an opponent in a dangerous area, Hanifin makes more than his share of bad blunders. He has to find a way to limit those. Simply has to. The Canadian division is loaded with star forwards and, as someone who plays big minutes, Hanifin is going to see a lot of them. If he gets beat by a great play, no problem. It happens. But Hanifin doesn’t need to be feeding them easy offense.
Juuso Valimaki - Breaking out. I was trying to temper expectations for Valimaki this season. He didn’t play last year, after all. But the way he dominated in Finland has me very optimistic about what he can do. We all know about the high-end skill he possesses, and he put it on full display overseas. Valimaki produced at a point per game clip, generated shots at an insane rate, and posted strong underlying numbers while playing big, big, minutes for Ilves. The Flames don’t *need* him to play a key role; at least not right away. But if Valimaki is ready for one, it’ll make the Flames a much better team.
Oliver Kylington - Earn a job. Bill Peters didn’t seem like the biggest Kylington fan, and I’m not sure Geoff Ward is either. The trust just doesn’t seem to be there. There is no doubting Kylington’s talent but the results have, at times, underwhelmed. It is time for him to really step up and separate himself from the rest of the pack, or he is going to get past over. If/when that happens, it’ll be tough for him to get that spot back.
Alec Petrovic/Alex Yelesin: Steady defense. The Flames probably have enough offensive talent on the backend. They could use some stability on the bottom pair. They tried a bunch of guys last season (Derek Forbort, Michael Stone, etc.) and didn’t really get what they were looking for. If Petrovic and/or Yelesin get in the lineup and play a simple, mistake free game I could see them getting in Ward’s good books and carving out a role.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com and Evolving-Hockey.com
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