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Some Real Thoughts Before Home Opener |
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First off a little bit of housekeeping. The Carolina Hurricanes surprised a bit by claiming Oilers third string goalie Anton Forsberg off of waivers. Currently that leaves Stuart Skinner as the Oilers #3. We may see Holland either make a waiver claim or deal soon to bolster that position.
Jujhar Khaira and Joakim Nygard cleared. This was some cap juggling so it is likely Khaira still opens as the Oilers 4th line centre tomorrow night.
Now onto the rest of the blog.
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In case it hasn't been made abundantly clear in some of my blogs, I enjoy having a bit of fun from time to time with my writeups. I have used hyperbole once or twice or have said things just to get a rise out of some of you.... such as being the one to point out that the Buffalo Sabres are by far the worst team in the league over the last decade.
This isn't to troll or to clickbait, but simply how I convey my humour and writing style. I just wanted to take a quick moment to sincerely thank all of you over the past few months who have read my blogs and maybe gotten a laugh or two or even heaven forbid... learned something. It was certainly not the easiest off-season to write about but thank you for sticking around and I can't wait to see some more activity now that we will have real games to discuss.
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With all that being said, here are my actual, non exaggerated views on the Edmonton Oilers roster as it stands.
THE FORWARDS
I expect Edmonton to finish in the top three in the North Division in total goals for this season. Last year Edmonton ranked third out of the Canadian teams, just one goal behind the Canucks. With McDavid and Draisaitl, the Oilers have a dominant one-two punch and the duo are absolute money on the powerplay (which I expect to be among the league best once again).
Where the Oilers struggled last season was in their overall even strength scoring, an area that I think Holland did a solid job of addressing this off-season. Turris, Puljujarvi, and Kahun, along with full seasons from Yamamoto and Ennis are decent bets at generating offense that doesn't need to stem from Draisaitl or McDavid on the breakout. As a whole, If Edmonton can finish between 9-13 in the league in 5 on 5 scoring, that should be heralded as a success (finished 18th last season).
The third line for the Oilers last season, centred mainly by Riley Sheahan was a black hole where offense went to die and far too many goals were scored against. Last year the Oilers opened with a third line of Granlund-Haas-Chiasson. This year it looks to be Archibald-Turris-Puljujarvi. More goals will be scored, the question will be if they can keep the puck out of their own net.
To sum up, the offense will certainly be what drives this team into a playoff spot and the only team I truly see as a threat in terms of pure skill among forwards is the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Some quick point form player thoughts from the forward group
- If Jesse Puljujarvi scores 10 goals this season that should be looked at as a massive success and solid real start to his NHL career
- I like Archibald on the third line and Ennis on the fourth. Each are great bottom six players that add a unique skillset to their respective lines
- My biggest regression fear is Kailer Yamamoto as he scored 11 goals on only 44 shots. I think he can offset this issue by not deferring as much to Draisaitl and shooting more. His tenacity will still be of great help in the top six
- Khaira will likely start the home opener but I think McLeod is right on his tail and could push the 26 year old out of a job before the end of this month
- Zack Kassian remains the big wild card in this group. If he can recapture his previous success with McDavid he could be a highly useful player but if not he may be more likely to be a healthy scratch than a bottom six player
THE DEFENSE
In my opinion, the Oilers have a very good second pairing duo (Nurse-Bear) that are playing as a top pairing, a group of players (Jones, Larsson, Barrie) that can be an effective second pairing, players who could slot up into the top six and push for icetime (Koekkoek, Bouchard), and Kris Russell.
Nurse and Bear were solid together last season and took on the brunt of 5 on 5 play for the Edmonton Oilers but the duo still allowed far too many goals against. I would much rather see both players averaging 21 minutes a night than the 24+ they received last season. Nurse is an excellent skater but still makes far too many mistakes in his own end on a regular basis to be considered a top pairing defender.
Tippett is counting on Bear and Jones to continue improving and early signs in training camp suggest that the coach is happy with their play. Jones will be counted on to take the minutes previously given to Oscar Klefbom, likely with Klef's partner Adam Larsson.
Larsson I have some big gripes with, most players on the Oilers backend tend to post better possession numbers away from Larsson. Injuries have taken their toll on the big man and Tippett needs to monitor him closely this whole season.
I am projecting a big bounceback season from Barrie and while a Norris vote probably isn't in his future this year I would not be surprised if he put up 45+ points in a 56 game season. Barrie will receive the bulk of powerplay time on a top unit that will play almost a full 2 minutes each go. Last years numbers as a whole for Barrie were not the norm and I am predicting a return to form.
As of writing this, Koekkoek is paired with Barrie on the third pairing as opposed to Kris Russell so already we are seeing some real competition and players pushing for time. I think as early as February we could see Evan Bouchard find a way to permanently establish himself on the NHL roster.
Ultimately it will be the goal for this group as a whole to play under a team system and limit chances against while finding ways to quickly break out the forward group. I would grade last years defensive group as a success, albeit with some hiccups. Despite the loss of Klefbom the group entering camp is at least as strong and should break even.
GOALTENDING
Here is the sword that the Oilers will live or die on.
Some people are too quick to write off the Oilers goaltending as the worst in the North division and that is fair as the team has taken a big risk.
Let's get the big one out of the way. Mike Smith can be a good goalie or he is an absolute dumpster fire. There is no in-between. With far more back to back games this year and a compressed schedule both netminders for every team will get into games.
Koskinen's workload through the regular season last year impressed enough for me to believe he can provide Edmonton with 0.915SV% on average through this season. That will help ensure Edmonton can snag one of the four playoff spots in the North.
The worry with Koskinen is if Smith proves completely unreliable, Mikko has shown that he struggles when given too many starts in a row. Now with Forsberg also out of the picture, the goaltending is the position to keep an eye on for a deal.
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I cannot wait to be back here tomorrow with my first Game Day Blog in almost a ten months. Thank you all for your readership and support and I will see you all back here tomorrow.
Thanks for reading.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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