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Dylan Larkin gave Detroit fans their only glimpse of positive flow tonight. In the third period, he did what he could to become a one man show and had a beautiful drive to the net and waited for the goalie to drop. Other than that, the Chicago netminder had the best performance of the young season for the Blackhawks. Only one goal allowed with over 30 shots on net. My prediction was as far off as you can get. None of what Detroit had accomplished thus far followed them into this game. The anemic power play was the only familiar portion. Chicago was ready, they were hungry, and they executed. Detroit didn’t check any of those boxes. Will give props to Marc Staal for saving a goal and setting up Larkin’s lone tally. Bobby Ryan was doing everything he could, but this team could not be carried to victory. I can only hope that 2 days of indigestion stuck in hotel quarantine will have the Red Wings ready to come out swinging on Sunday. As it stands, Chicago could sweep this one if tonight was any indication.
Second period - give Chicago full marks. They are clearly hungry to turn things around. Kane is, possibly, one of the top 3 greatest American players in history. He still wants to win with and for the Blackhawks. The goalie tonight is on his game, Detroit has fired 22 shots and it’s a goose egg. Greiss, even allowing 2, has had to bail Detroit out far too much. Glendening is all heart. Beat an icing call, killing it in the faceoff dot. We need more of that from more guys. I’m really missing Zadina tonight. That kid stirs the drink. When Fabbri went down, Ras stepped in and it was clear the wingers are driving that 2nd line. Losing Zadina is a huge eye opener. His play has been strong and inspired. I’m completely prepared to be very, very wrong about tonight’s prediction. Detroit isn’t doing what they need to do and Chicago is playing with pride and purpose.
First period - the up and down was borderline nauseating. Detroit had some good shifts down low, but a stupid penalty by Filppula put Hawks on their power play (which I advised they avoid). Greiss had to bail out Larkin (again) and has been solid. Chicago’s young goalie looks good in the first as well. Detroit was completely out of sync on passing. I’m less and less a fan of those drop passes right now. I found out that there have been inconsistencies in what pucks everyone is playing. It’s definitely bouncing around tonight, for sure through the first 10 minutes. I also realize that this is Detroit’s first away game, and they look bad on line changes. They flew in today per protocol, so some stiffness. The second period has to be much stronger for them to get it going.
Detroit dug deep for their last win, against Columbus. While we’re only 4 games in, there is a steadiness that wasn’t there last season. 4 games in last year, offense came from LARMANZZI or nowhere at all. Now, it’s the Bobby Ryan show. Though, quietly, Mantha is on a 3 game point streak. The big take away is that both Carolina and Columbus focused on the Larkin line, and the 2nd line players made a big impact.
Game 5 is exciting for a multitude of reasons. The series against Chicago is the only season series I have Detroit winning in my preseason prognostications. This isn’t trying to be overly harsh on the Blackhawks, the reality is that they’ve lost some important pieces before they got on the ice. Kirby Dach, for sure, but captain serious has a presence that is clearly missed.
We’re now on the slope side of the past 11 years of the intense rivalry with Chicago. As Detroit regressed, Chicago had 4 (in my opinion) all star forwards in Toews, Kane, Hossa and Sharp. Keith and Seabrook were powerful, and there was some impressive blue line depth In Hjalmarrson and Leddy. Depth players were praised (as they were in Detroit) for the impact they made. And, Corey Crawford (who found himself in the same boat as Chris Osgood in being unappreciated) was doing a lot in these past few years to keep the team going. Only Kane and Keith are currently on the ice from the big names. Toews had the settling presence having matured into a 3 time champion. There are times when those teams can pull together and win on swagger (ah the good old days). That umbrella of reassurance just isn’t there right now.
One of my favorite parts of heading into game 5 is that we have the beginnings of statistical data. It’s a small (very small) sample size, but there are already patterns. Detroit, in goals against, is a pattern of 3-2-3-2. Goals for went 0-4-2-3. Save for opening night, Detroit is playing within 1 goal for the most part. Their differential right now is -1. Chicago has allowed 5 goals in each of their first 4 games. They’ve scored 1-2-2-4, with no wins and one OT loss. Faceoffs favor Detroit barely, 53.6 to 50.2. Chicago has a goal differential of -11. The special teams numbers (you want to try and get a total of 100% or better by Bowman’s rules) show Chicago with a gaudy 41.7% PP and a not so hot 66.7 PK. A total number of 108.4%. That power play number will come down quickly as games go on, that PK number should be on Detroit’s mind. Detroit’s power play is an anemic 14.3% with a respectable PK at 81.8%. The total special teams add up to 96.1%. This doesn’t really concern me at this point, and with the right looks Detroit’s power play could make a serious leap forward. Chicago has 9 total goals, 5 power play and 4 even strength. Obviously, stay out of the box.
One further caveat, Chicago played Tampa Bay and Florida. Both are teams that tend to dominate Detroit in the regular season. Chicago is going to come angry into this series, and they don’t want to lose to Detroit. So, where do I see this one going? I like Detroit’s odds for this series.
Goaltending. Detroit’s tandem has been impressive. I desperately want Greiss to be rewarded for his strong play with a win. Bernier has been really good as well, and the team has been able to weather some serious storms. If Detroit gets some strong O zone play, Chicago’s net minders are struggling. This is the series to get the power play going. Playing in Chicago is usually loud and intimidating. From the anthem to the buzzer, the fans over there are fantastic (they oversell regularly with standing room only). Now, it’s crickets. The edge in that energy is gone for now. I think Chicago will continue to struggle until the in room feel shifts to find that swagger again. They have good players, but they’re missing some identity.
I think Detroit could sweep this one, but I expect tonight’s tilt to be a gritty one. If Greiss can hold the line at 2 or 3 goals, Detroit could explode for 4. I’ll guess a 4-3 OT win tonight, and 4-2 regulation win on Sunday. I could be very, very wrong. That’s just my gut on this one. Let me know what you think in the comments.
Tonight, I’m going to keep between periods to summary only. The notes are jamming up my feed and messing with the flow of the game. There are important elements ,but I’m going to temporarily simplify. Nonetheless I’ll be blogging! See you in the comments.
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