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The 2020-21 NHL start not at all what we anticipated |
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The 2020-21 season has been the tales of the unexpected. Jim Rutherford quit. The Montreal Canadiens are No. 1 in the NHL standings. Patrik Laine is now a Blue Jacket. A growing number of games canceled by COVID-19.
Did we see any of this coming? Should we have seen any of this coming?
Let’s look at each of the surprising events in terms of whether it was predicted or could have been anticipated:
Montreal Canadiens’ rise: Most preseason forecasts listed the Canadiens as an improved team, but no one was saying the Habs would be the NHL’s best team. Currently, the Canadiens are the NHL’s high-scoring team at 4.4 goals per game. They might also be the NHL’s fastest team and no defense is moving the puck out of its zone more quickly or with greater efficiency.
It’s too early to talk about General Manager of the Year, but no one did a better job than Marc Bergevin this offseason at upgrading his roster. He traded for Josh Anderson and signed Tyler Toffoli and those two players total 15 goals. Big Joel Edmundson is doing what he is supposed to do defensively.
The most overlooked Bergevin move was the decision to add Jake Allen as the backup goalie. How many other GMs would be willing to live with more than $14 million in goalies on their salary cap? Maybe none, perhaps a couple. But Bergevin’s decision has also paid off for the Habs.
It’s still too early to predict what lies ahead for the Canadiens, but it’s pretty clear Bergevin has constructed a contending roster.
Covid’s prominence: Before the season began, my take was that the NFL experience had given us a blueprint for what would occur in the NHL. Players were going to contract the virus, or face quarantine because of exposure to the virus. It was inevitable. But I’m nonetheless surprised how much the virus has already undermined the 2020-21 season. Twenty-four of the 31 teams have had at least one player on the COVID-19 list and 18 games are cancelled.
I was wrong, or guilty of wishful thinking, in expecting NHL players to be better at staying off the COVID-list. We haven’t reached the critical stage in terms of number of canceled games, but there is frustration building among players and coaches.
Jim Rutherford’s Resignation: Everyone was caught off guard by this, particularly the Penguins. Even after Rutherford told the Penguins, they probably thought he would change his mind. My read: it was a collection of factors, not one event, which led to Rutherford’s decision. Maybe we should have taken the hint when he told Athletic writer Rob Rossi how difficult the offseason had been. He had to fire people he liked. Did he feel he had lost some autonomy? He didn’t have a contract extension (even though the Penguins expected to extend). He wished he could spend more time with his family. He probably left for all of the above.
This is a difficult loss for the Penguins because Rutherford is a masterful trader who for sure would have been able to land pieces to improve this team down the stretch.
My prediction is the Penguins will end up with someone they know and trust, like Tom Fitzgerald or Jason Botterill and next summer Rutherford will become general manager of a team that can’t quite get over the hump to winning a Stanley Cup.
Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic for Pierre-Luc Dubois trade: This happened because Dubois wanted out of Columbus for unspecified reasons. But coach John Tortorella made the trade happen sooner by going public with Dubois’ issue and then benching Dubois for a poor shift. If that didn’t happen, the Blue Jackets might have kept Dubois all season and traded him in the offseason. No one except Blue Jackets management and the Dubois camp knew about the trade request before Tortorella confirmed it. He obviously didn’t want Dubois around.
Both teams got what they wanted in the trade, but I liked it better from the Blue Jackets’ perspective. Laine could be a 50-goal scorer before he is done. The only problem for both teams is that it’s possible that neither Laine or Dubois will want to stay in their new cities.
The other important question: Will Laine make peace with Tortorella’s tough love coaching style? Having not played for 19 days, Laine didn’t play well in his Blue Jackets’ debut. It’s important that the Blue Jackets show they can re-sign potential stars. Seth Jones will be an unrestricted free agent in 2022-23.
Joe Pavelski surge: With seven goals and 14 points in Stars’ first seven games, Pavelski has given the Stars' a significant offensive lift. It was hard to know what to think about 36-year-old Pavelski after last season’s poor regular-season. He looked past his expiration date when he scored only 14 goals. But he looked the Joe of old in the playoffs when he scored 13 times.
I believe what we know now is that last season’s meager regular-season total reflected his struggle to adjust to a new team and not the beginning of the end.
Malkin struggles: He has one goal in Pittsburgh’s first 10 games: At this scoring rate, he would score six goals this season. Nobody saw this coming, and Malkin and the Penguins are still trying to figure out what it means. He’s going to turn 35 this summer. He does have three assists in his past four games. The Pens hope that’s a good sign.
Florida starts 5-0-1: This wasn’t supposed to happen. The Panthers have teased us for a couple of seasons, but lost a good chunk of offense when Mike Hoffman (29 goals) and Evgenii Dadonov (25 goals). Thus far, the Panthers rank 8th in scoring average and 7th in GAA (2.50)
Give new GM Bill Zito credit for bringing in Carter Verhaeghe, Radko Gudas, Alex Wennberg, Anthony Duclair and Markus Nutivaara who have all been effective additions.
Not many pundits projected the Panthers competing for a playoff spot, but they have played well enough to make us believe they can.
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