The lesson the Tampa Bay Lightning re-learned tonight is that the Florida Panthers are fast. And that bad goaltending can sink your chances in an otherwise fine game. Those two lessons were delivered to them in a 6-4 defeat at the hands of their interstate rival on Monday night. Here are tonight’s thumbs:

Thumbs Down: Curtis McElhinney’s Game
I wouldn’t have thought so watching the game, but the Lightning’s underlying numbers at five-on-five were phenomenal. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Bolts generated 65% of the five-on-five shot attempts and 70% of the five-on-five expected goals in this game. Combine those numbers with a penalty kill that didn’t allow the Panthers to strike - and four goals scored - and you have most of the ingredients necessary for victory.

Unfortunately, a weak performance from Curtis McElhinney sank those chances. He just wasn’t very good. There was no better example of his struggles than Jonathan Huberdeau’s opening goal, when the Lightning were stunned by the Florida forecheck’s speed and McElhinney got caught completely out of his net. Things didn’t get much better from there. Six goals on 21 shots against just isn’t going to get the job done in the NHL all too often.

Thumbs Up: Steven Stamkos Returns
After missing time with a lower-body injury and reportedly false-positive COVID test, Steven Stamkos returned tonight and made his presence known immediately. He opened the scoring with a patented Stamkos bomb from the circle – his eighth goal of the season.

Thumbs Up: Volkov Opens the Floodgates
When Alex Volkov scored his first career goal last time out, I mentioned that it was hopefully a sign of things to come. If tonight serves as any indication, it was. Volkov scored another two goals tonight, and was a major reason that the Lightning were able to mount a semi-successful comeback effort. He matched those tangible offensive contributions with very solid underlying numbers, in what can probably be described as the best game of his young NHL career.

Thumbs Up: Gemel Smith’s Board Work
For a second straight game, Gemel Smith’s work along the boards had a direct result on the scoreboard. Volkov’s second goal, which came as he and Pat Maroon were swatting for the puck at the same moment, was really courtesy of Gemel Smith’s work behind the net to shield the puck and feed it into the slot. The sample size is absurdly tiny, but Smith has looked so good in his role since joining the Lightning this week. Tonight, his assist was complemented by a five-on-five expected goal share of 79% and a five-on-five shot attempt share of 75% per Natural Stat Trick.

Thumbs Up: The Tyler Johnson Redemption Tour
When Tyler Johnson moves his feet, he can still be an effective player for this Bolts team. This evening, that happened when he and Mathieu Joseph teamed up to pull the Lightning to within one goal late in the second period.

Beyond the goal, I thought Johnson looked pretty good throughout this game. He may not be the same player he once was (especially in the defensive zone), but it’s clear that the tank isn’t completely empty. All of a sudden, he’s now notched four goals and seven points in 13 games this season, which equates to a 25-goal, 44-point pace over an 82-game schedule. That’s not half bad for a player every team could have taken for free on the waiver wire.

Thumbs Down: The Gourde Line
From my vantage point, they had a rare off night on Monday. The Panthers were able to use their speed to attack Gourde and his linemates in the same way that trio typically does to opponents. The numbers line up with what the eye test was telling me, with that trio being among the worst of the Lightning skaters in both five-on-five expected goal and shot attempt share.

Thumbs Down: The Coaching Call
Bolt Prospects had an interesting thought towards the end of the second period:

Unpopular opinion: If Cooper is serious about these two points he puts Vasy in to start the third period. Unorthodox or not, you have to know when your G is fighting it. Still a production league.

— Bolt Prospects (@BoltProspects) February 16, 2021

With the Lightning only trailing by one, there was a clear opportunity to take control of the third and win this game. Instead, McElhinney whiffed on an Anton Stralman (hello, old friend) shot early in the third to hand the Panthers back their two-goal lead, and the rest was history. Nights off for Andrei Vasilevskiy are obviously important, but it’s worth wondering what could have been.

Thumbs Down: Score Effects
How much of the Lightning’s strong underlying numbers in this game can be attributed to score effects? We’ll likely never know. The bottom line: This Panthers team is a bigger threat than Panthers teams of yesteryear.

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There really isn’t much more to say about this game. The Lightning looked good, while Curtis McElhinney didn’t. It seems likely that we’ll see Vasilevskiy in the crease when the Lightning take on the Dallas Stars on Thursday.

As always, thanks for reading.

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