The Ottawa Senators may sit right near the bottom of the National Hockey League standings, and boast the league’s worst points percentage, but there’s more to the story. The Senators are a lot better than their 8-17-1 record might suggest.
Nobody who follows the Senators expected them to be a playoff team this year, but people were rightly hoping and expecting that they would take a step forward. As much as their placement in the standings suggests that hasn’t happened, a look at the underlying numbers from Natural Stat Trick tells a different story. This is a relatively average hockey club in terms of five-on-five shot attempt share, expected goal share, and scoring chance share. “Average” may not sound like a big victory, but considering where this franchise has been, it’s a win.
So, if things don’t look all bad, why do the Senators find themselves in the race for the first overall draft pick? Goaltending is the major reason. It’s no secret that Matt Murray has made too many appearances on the wrong side of my “Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down” recaps, but a look at the data paints an even scarier picture than random daily musings can describe.
The traditional stats for Murray are bad enough: He boasts a 3.72 goals against average and an .883 save percentage through 20 games this season. A goaltender signed to a multi-year contract worth $6.25M per season needs to be giving more. Some, though, have suggested that Ottawa’s lack of defensive proficiency is a material contributing factor to Murray’s woeful numbers. “He hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been as bad as his numbers,” they say.
Unfortunately, adjusting for some of those quantity and quality factors, Murray’s performance looks even worse. Even taking into account at least some measure of what the Senators have been giving up in front of him, he hasn’t been good enough:
MoneyPuck’s stats put Murray’s goaltending at a value of -3 wins above replacement. That’s the equivalent of six points in the standings, which would put the Senators at 23 points rather than their current 17. It would be enough to push the Senators past the Vancouver Canucks, and right into the thick of the North Division playoff race.
Because of the significance of the commitment they made to him, the Senators have nothing they can do except hope that Murray turns things around. It’s unlikely that he’ll live up to the dollars and term attached to his contract, but it’s hard to believe that he can continue to be *this* bad. Even replacement level goaltending would put the Senators on better footing in the standings.
As always, thanks for reading.
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