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Five things to watch when Calgary takes on Ottawa:

1. A golden opportunity. The injury bug has hit the Ottawa Senators where it hurts most; between the pipes. It’s very hard to win without competent goaltending and it’s tough to expect that when you’re on *checks notes* your fourth string netminder. Filip Gustavsson is making his 1st NHL start this evening. With all due respect, I don’t think he’s ready for it. Gustavsson posted a sub .890 save percentage in the AHL(!) from 2018-20. He’s at .909 in a limited sample this season but, even so, I don’t expect much. While he was perfect outside of the shootout against Calgary last time out, he looked very uneasy and raw. I think the Flames need to keep things simple and get pucks on net any chance they have. I doubt it’ll take Grade A looks to beat him with any regularity.

2. Houston, we have a problem. Johnny Gaudreau is having A Time under Darryl Sutter, and not a good one. Gaudreau has zero (0) points at 5v5 and ranks 13th on the Flames in expected goals since Sutter took over. Sutter’s dump-and-chase system isn’t exactly conducive for Gaudreau to have success and we’re seeing that on a nightly basis. The Flames really need to get him going – be it with new linemates or giving his line some wiggle room when it comes to the way they play – because they simply don’t have enough offense in their lineup to neuter Gaudreau and score enough to win on a consistent basis.

3. Get to the net. Matthew Tkachuk has only four high-danger chances, and six shots on goal, in six games under Sutter. That...is not enough. The good news is Ottawa has struggled defending the net; especially of late. They rank 28th in high-danger chances against/60 over the last 10 games. Getting chances in the paint is Tkachuk’s bread and butter and having somebody like Gustavsson between the pipes should only give him more incentive to go there. We’ll see if he can take it up a notch tonight and get back on track in this very favorable spot.

4. Contrasting styles. The Flames have averaged 97 events (attempts for + against) per 60 at 5v5 under Sutter. They’ve played at a slow, methodical pace. The same can’t be said of Ottawa. For perspective of how fast the Senators play, their games have averaged ~125 events per 60 over the same time period. They play fast, high-event hockey with both teams piling up the shots. I think this kind of game environment, which lends itself to plenty of rush play, would be great for Gaudreau. I’m very interested to see if the Flames get pulled into the fire (no pun intended), or if they manage to slow things down and force the Senators to play their style of game.

5. Regression. Brady Tkachuk has piled up 38 chances over the last 10 games. More than half of them (21) are Grade A opportunities. What does Tkachuk have to show for it? Two goals. Two! He generally underperforms based on the volume he generates but, even so, his shooting percentage is a little low right now. Pucks are going to start finding the net with more regularity if he continues to pile up the chances.

numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com

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