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Extinct or Alive: Rangers/Flyers?
Here are the latest FINAL Point Projections in the East..
1.Washington 79
2.NY Islanders 78
3. Pittsburgh 75
4. Boston 69
5. NY Rangers 61
6. Philadelphia 60
7. NJ Devils 49
8. Buffalo 36
The four spots feel pretty set when you look at the remaining games based on how these teams have played each other so far… The only battle that feels like a battle is between the NY Rangers, Flyers and the Boston Bruins...Currently, the Flyers sit 6 back and the RangerS sit 4 back of Boston. Both have played 2 fewer games than the Bruins.
The Rangers and Flyers are heading in opposite directions however.
Today is April 15th
On March 15th the Flyers were in 4th place 5 points ahead of the Rangers.
On February 15th the Flyers were in 2nd place 8 points ahead of the Rangers.
The fact that the Rangers are only two points up on the Flyers with the same amount of games played is even crazier when you look at the Goal Differentials…
NY Rangers +24
Philadelphia -31
This tells you that the Rangers are better than their standing and the Flyers are way worse. The NJ Devils, 10 points behind the Flyers are -32. By the way, the Bruins are +6.
The Flyers may not be technically extinct...but they are trending in that direction.
The Rangers on the other hand...Are actually very much alive even though the Bruins project to beat out the Rangers by 8 points, and the Flyers by 9.
In our model, the Bruins are aided by the 5 games left they have against the Sabres. They have won the first 3, so the model projects them to get 2 points per game. That is 10 points there. For every point the Sabres can snag, that cushion gets smaller.
Besides the Sabres, the Bruins best PPG avg was 1.63...against the Flyers. However, the Flyers and Bruins are finished for the season.
Why are the Rangers ALIVE?
See below where the Bruins can lose projected points and the Rangers can get points.
The Bruins PPG/Games Left… 5 Games Left
Buff 2.0ppg
3 Games Left
NYI 0.4ppg
2 Games Left
Washington 1.33ppg
Pitt 1.33ppg
Vs. NJ .83ppg
AND NY Rangers. 1.33ppg
The Rest of Rangers ppg/games left. 3 games left
NY Islanders 1ppg
NJD 1.2ppg/
2 Games Left
Wash 1.33ppg
Philly 1.17ppg
Buffalo 1.5 ppg
AND Boston .83ppg
So it is pretty easy to see how the Rangers could indeed get back into this.
The Sabres took the Bruins to OT two nights ago. Boston is not likely to take 2 points in all 5 games, Every point the Sabres take shrinks that 8 point lead.
And then the two Rangers/Bruins games, could the Rangers win them that shrinks the projection by 2 or 4 depending on whether or not the wins are in regulation.
But I am not here today to label the Bruins: Extinct.
Oh no. The Bruins have way too many leaders and character players who know how to find ways to make the playoffs...I am just calling this a battle to watch.
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