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I Crunched the Numbers: Stats for Caps vs Pens through Six Games

April 29, 2021, 12:12 PM ET [8 Comments]
Brian Sickles
Washington Capitals Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Hello All,

I just wanted to take a look at the Caps vs Pens basic stats through six head-to-head games. The last time these two teams played was 63 days ago on 02/25. Feels like forever ago. Oh, how I have missed this rivalry! Since 02/26, the Capitals are 22-8-0 in 30 games played. This is good for 6th best in league during that span. The Penguins are 22-8-2 in 32 games played. This is good for 3rd best in the league during that same stretch. The Pens are +37 since 02/26 and the Caps are +25.

Let’s rewind for a second and check out the stats through six games played head-to-head between these two teams:

Record Head to Head:
Caps: 2-1-3 (7 points)
Pens: 4-2-0 (8 points)

Shots
WSH: 179 (averaging 29.83 shots/game)
PIT: 187 (averaging 31.16 shots/game)


Shots (5v5)
WSH: 140 (averaging 23.33 shots/game)
PIT: 142 (averaging 23.66 shots/game)


Shots by Period (First Period)
WSH: 65 (averaging 10.83 first period shots/game)
PIT: 59 (averaging 9.83 first period shots/game)


Shots by Period (Second Period)
WSH: 65 (averaging 10.83 second period shots/game)
PIT: 66 (averaging 11 second period shots/game)


Shots by Period (Third Period)
WSH: 47 (averaging 7.83 third period shots/game)
PIT: 56 (averaging 9.33 third period shots/game)


Shots by Period (Overtime)
WSH: 2 (averaging 0.66 overtime shot/game when OT occurred)
PIT: 6 (averaging 2 overtime shots/game when OT occurred)


Scoring Chances:
WSH: 144 (averaging 24 scoring chances/game)
PIT: 163 (averaging 27 scoring chances/game)


Scoring Chances (5v5):
WSH: 124 (average = 20.66 scoring chances/game
PIT: 118 (average = 19.66 scoring chances/game)


High Danger Chances:
WSH: 68 (averaging 11.33 high danger scoring chances/game)
PIT: 66 (averaging 11 high danger scoring chances/game)


High Danger Chances (5v5)
WSH: 57 (averaging 9.5 high danger scoring chances/game)
PIT: 43 (averaging 7.16 high danger scoring chances/game)


Power Play
WSH: 3 for 20 (15%)
PIT: 4 for 20 (20%)


Goals
WSH: 20 (averaging 3.33 goals/game)
PIT: 19 (averaging 3.16 goals/game)


Goals For (5v5)
WSH: 15 (averaging 2.5 goals/game)
PIT: 10 (averaging 1.66 goals/game)


xGF (Expected Goals For)
WSH: 16.08 (averaging 2.68 expected goals per game)
PIT: 14.28 (averaging 2.38 expected goals per game)


Goals by Period (First Period)
WSH: 7 (averaging 1.86 first period goals/game)
PIT: 5 (averaging 0.833 first period goals/game)


Goals by Period (Second Period)
WSH: 8 (averaging 1.33 second period goals/game)
PIT: 8 (averaging 1.33 second period goals/game)


Goals by Period (Third Period)
WSH: 5 (averaging 0.833 third period goals/game)
PIT: 5 (averaging 0.833 third period goals/game)


Goals by Period (Overtime)
WSH: 1 (averaging 1 overtime shot/game when OT occurred)
PIT: 2.5 (averaging 2.5 overtime shots/game when OT occurred)


Goaltender Stats


Ilya Samsonov
Games Played & Record: 1GP (0-0-1)
SV%: .889 (27 saves on 30 shots faced)
GAA: 3.00 GAA


Vitek Vanecek
Games Played & Record: 5GP (2-1-2)
SV%: .906 (143 saves on 158 shots faced)
GAA: 3.00 GAA/game


Tristan Jarry
Games Played & Record: 4GP (2-2-0)
SV%: .913 (117 saves on 128 shots faced)
GAA: 2.75 GAA/game


Casey DeSmith
Games Played & Record: 2GP (2-0-0)
SV%: .857 (42 saves on 49 shots faced)
GAA: 3.5 GAA/game



Quick Takeaways:


The Capitals have been the better team at 5v5 - Through six games they hold statistical advantages at 5v5 for scoring chances, high danger chances, and goals. A 57-43 advantage in high danger chances at 5v5 is significant. In addition, the Caps have outscored the Pens at 15-10 at 5v5 this season. If the Caps can stay out of the penalty box, that should generally bode well for them and their scoring chances against the Pens in these final two games


Goaltending– When these two teams last met, the Capitals were riding Vitek Vanecek who played mediocre in the five games against the Pens. The Pens will make most goalies look average. What jumped out to me is that the Capitals held another significant advantage in xGF (expected goals for) and just a 20-19 goal advantage. Surface level translation: The Capitals were generating more quality chances than the Pens and the Penguins goalies held it down. "Expected goals for" is based on quality of chances and factors in high, medium, and low danger shots. The Capitals generated more of those vs the Pens on average but they only won two of the six games. With Ilya Samsonov playing fairly strong hockey right now, I am interested to see if he can slow down this high flying Penguins squad. On the flip side, I would like to see a continuation of “expected goals for” for the Capitals and see if they can crack whoever is in net for the Penguins tonight


Third Period Struggles for the Caps –Just like the rest of the games the Caps have played this season, the Capitals struggle in the third period for the most part. The Pens have outshot the Caps 56-47 in the third period this season. By some miracle, each team has only scored 5 goals in the third period. Look for the Penguins to try and exploit the Captials in the third period. The Capitals are the oldest team in the league and are in the bottom half of the league for third period goal diff

Any thoughts on the stats? Looking forward to another great game against the Penguins tonight. Should be fun stuff.

Score Prediction: Caps 3, Pens 2 (A rare low scoring game)

Thanks for reading and GO CAPS.

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Stats and Facts provided by:

nhl.com/stats
hockey-reference.com
naturalstattrick.com
@CapitalsPR Twitter page

Follow me on Twitter @HB_Capitals

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