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Something new: Bruins have advantage in net over Capitals

May 13, 2021, 8:19 PM ET [17 Comments]
Anthony Travalgia
Boston Bruins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
When the puck drops Saturday in Game 1 of the Bruins first-round playoff series with the Washington Capitals, Tuukka Rask will defend the visiting goal.

That much we know.

However, who starts for the Capitals on the other side of the ice remains a mystery. We do know it won’t be Braden Holtby, thankfully.

He’s out in Vancouver, finishing what’s left of his first season with the Canucks. The Bruins are happy about that.

“Those are things we’re going to keep internal,” Capitals head coach Peter Laviolette said when asked when he’ll name his Game 1 starter. “With regards to the playoffs and where we go with our goaltending and our lineup, we’ll probably keep that internal for the playoffs.”

Meh, does it really matter?

Whether it’s second-year goalie, Ilya Samsonov, rookie Vitek Vanecek or heck, even veteran Craig Anderson it doesn’t make a difference: the Bruins have the advantage in goal over the Capitals.

Phew, finally.

He’s told you twice since returning from injury, and the eye test in his last two starts will certainly validate the fact that Tuukka Rask is not playing at 100%.

But, anytime the Stanley Cup Playoffs arrive, no one is playing at 100%. Any player that says differently is not exactly telling the truth.

Well, maybe except Nikita Kucherov and that whole salary cap circumventing thing that went on in Tampa Bay. But hey, that’s a story for another day.

Rask has gone 7-2 since returning from whatever upper-body issue was ailing him, allowing 17 goals in those nine games. Rask has two shutouts in that span.

Even if Rask is say, I don’t know, playing at 80%, I’ll take him over whichever goalie the Capitals throw out there in Game 1.

Vanecek was solid for the Capitals this year at times, but inconsistencies in his game defined most of his rookie season. The 25-year old finished the season with a 2.69 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage, starting 36 games of the 37 games he appeared in.

Samsonov’s status for Saturday remains unknown. Earlier this month Samsonov and forward Evgeny Kuznetsov were suspended for arriving late to a team function. Neither has played in a game since, as both have landed on the NHL’S COVID-19 protocol list.

At the time, Samsonov was on the Capitals’ taxi squad and because of this, the team is not required to report if he is in the protocol or not. Laviolette later did admit Samsonov was indeed on the list where he remained Thursday according to the team.

Even if Samsonov was able to return to practice Friday, it would be unlikely that he dresses in Game 1. Game 2 Monday would be a more realistic target date.

Where the Bruins edge in goal over the Capitals comes is in the high-danger scoring areas.

Since the trade deadline and the resurgence of Taylor Hall that came with it, the Bruins lead the league in five-on-five high-danger scoring chances with 157 and high-danger goals with 24.

Of 56 goalies who have appeared in at least 700 minutes of five-on-five ice time this season, Vanecek (.798) and Samsonov (.779) rank 46th and 51st respectively in high-danger save percentage.

Rask (.832) meanwhile, ranks 21st.

The Bruins scored nine five-on-five high-danger goals against the Capitals this season, with only the Buffalo Sabres allowing more to the Bruins among the seven other teams in the East division.

While getting yourself to high-scoring areas is obviously a focus of every team, the high-danger success the Bruins have had against the Capitals to date, and the success they’ve had there as a whole since the deadline has been encouraging.

Unless Laviolette sides with experience and Anderson, I think it’s save to assume Vanecek gets the nod in Game 1.

Again, advantage Bruins.

With no back-to-backs scheduled in the series, it's likely Rask starts the entire series. That of course, hinges on Rask, his health and his on-ice play.

But based off what we've seen from Swayman in a small sample size, should the Bruins need to start Swayman for whatever the reason may be, I don't think that changes much advantage wise.
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