It's draft lottery day!
The ping-pong balls will spin on Wednesday at 4 p.m. PT, on a half-hour broadcast ahead of the first game of the North Division championship series between the Montreal Canadiens and the Winnipeg Jets.
As I ran down at season's end, the Canucks have the ninth-best odds of winning the lottery. With just the top two spots up for grabs this year, they'll end up in one of five possible positions:
1st: 5.4% chance
2nd: 5.8% chance
9th: 58.6% chance
10th: 28.0% chance
11th: 2.4% chance
Click here if you'd like to spend the day accessing the Tankathon website and spinning the draft simulator.
I'm going to limit myself to two drawings.
First try:
1. New Jersey wins — moving up three spots to No. 1.
2. Anaheim holds position.
So Buffalo moves down two spots, from 1 to 3, and Seattle moves down one, to No. 4.
The Canucks hold steady at No. 9
Second try — drama!
1. Columbus wins — moving up four spots to No. 1.
2. Ottawa wins the second drawing, moving up eight spots to No. 2.
That's a bad outcome for virtually everyone but the winners.
Buffalo, Anaheim, Seattle and New Jersey all drop by two spots each, while Detroit, San Jose, Los Angeles and Vancouver all fall by one.
That leaves the Canucks with pick No. 10.
Chicago, Calgary, Philadelphia, Dallas and the Rangers would all hold their positions.
Once we know where the Canucks are picking, the speculation can begin in earnest about who they'll target.
The conventional wisdom is that the pandemic has made this year's draft even more of a crapshoot than usual. I think that has made some teams a bit gun-shy, while others are chomping at the bit. See Jarmo Kekalainen in Columbus, now with three first-round draft picks.
My guess is that the Canucks fall somewhere in between. Obviously, Jim Benning has not been able to travel and scout as much as he normally would — although he did make it down to Texas for the World U18 championship last month. Beyond that, he'll have to rely on the scouts that he has embedded in various territories.
After lumping top prospects into A, B and C categories at midseason, NHL Central Scouting released its usual ranked listings last week.
Click here to access the portal, where you can peruse the top North American skaters, International skaters, North American goalies and International goalies.
At the top of the North American list is big Canadian defenseman Owen Power. He spent the year at Michigan, where he put up 16 points in 26 games. As a November birthday, he was too old to play at U18s this year, and of course last year's tournament was cancelled due to the pandemic. A covid situation also prevented Michigan from taking part in this year's Frozen Four, and the Wolverines chose not to release Power for Canada at the World Junior Championship.
He did make the roster for the men's team, which has squeaked through to the quarterfinal and a date with Russia on Thursday (10:15 a.m. PT).
Starting in a secondary role, Power has seen his role increase with Team Canada as the tournament as gone on — and the Canadian results have improved. Heading into the knockout games, he has three assists in seven games and is a plus-one, averaging 17:52 per game.
By the way, shout-out to Troy Stecher. He's second in average ice time for Canada, at 19:55 per game, and has been leaned on heavily by Canadian coach Gerard Gallant. In his second World Championship appearance, he has one goal and is a plus-three so far in this tournament.
Stecher missed eight games with a lower-body injury during his time with Detroit this season, and was also healthy-scratched a handful of times late in the year. In 44 games, he tallied three goals and 11 points. He has another year remaining on his contract, at a cap hit of $1.7 million, before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
A quick glance at Detroit's
expansion draft situation suggests that Stecher could be protected by the Red Wings. Besides Stecher, the only other defensemen they have under contract who require protection are Filip Hronek, Christian Djoos and Danny DeKeyser, who has one year left at $5 million.
Steve Yzerman is another GM who isn't shying away from this draft. The Red Wings have 11 picks in the first five rounds, including two first-rounders.
This year's U18 tournament was dominated by underagers who aren't eligible for this year's draft. But here are a handful of players who stood out and may have caught Benning's eye:
• Mason McTavish - Canada - Ranked No. 2 N.A. skater by Central Scouting
McTavish is a big center who impressed with his skills and his leadership at the tournament, after spending time this season playing in Switzerland while the OHL was shut down.
• Nikita Chibrikov - Russia - Ranked No. 4 European skater by Central Scouting
Like Vasily Podkolzin, Chibrikov is a winger from the SKA St. Petersburg system. And like Podkolzin, he bounced between all three levels of play this season, with one goal and one assist in 16 KHL games. At U18s, he finished as the top draft-eligible scorer, with 13 points in seven games.
• Brandt Clarke - Canada - Ranked No. 7 N.A. skater by Central Scouting
Clarke was the top defenseman to play at U18s, but is the third-ranked North American blueliner on the Central Scouting list, behind Power and Quinn's youngest brother Luke Hughes, who didn't play at the tournament due to a knee injury.
Like McTavish, Clarke is an OHL kid who spent time playing against men in Europe this season — in his case, in Slovakia. Already a good size at 6'2" and 190 pounds, he anchored the blue line for the Canadian gold-medalists at U18s and was named to the tournament all-star team.
• Aleksi Heimosalmi - Finland - Ranked No. 26 European skater by Central Scouting
The other defenseman named to the U18 all-star team is this Finnish blueliner, who had eight points in seven games. He spent his regular season in the Finnish U20 league.
It's interesting to see that he's not nearly as highly touted as the other tournament all-stars. Did he punch above his weight at the tournament, or could he be a draft steal? Would the Canucks be ready to take a chance on another Finnish defenseman?
Obviously, this just scratches the surface of this year's prospect list. We'll have a better idea of who to dream about after we see what happens at the NHL Network Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Wednesday afternoon.
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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