With the Final upon us, and the rumors about to explode, I have one last blog to write about the game on the ice. It’s time to get into this...The big trophy is getting polished and for the first time in a long time could be returning to the country of its birth...
The Montreal Canadiens are a hell of a story. I am on my family vacation in Californiaa for two more days, and usually out here you don’t hear a ton about hockey. However, this year my friends out here are starting to jump on board with the story and asking me about Montreal. Everyone loves a great “team winning against all odds tale.”
I grew up in the 70s, so “Montreal Magic” feels more familiar than odd-ball to me. As a kid this team was dominant and they were dreaded...They did win in 86 and 93, but both instances were more like this one...and Cinderella stories play really well in French. Habs fans are romantics to the core and they would rather be the “underdog from nowhere” any day of the week... But can they continue to catch Lightning in a Bottle? (Sorry...I had to)
We all know what Tampa is about. We all know how and why they should repeat.
In “the before times” they dominated their divisional foe over the past few seasons...going 7-1 in the last 8 games. They play fast and they have great goaltending...The two things Montreal has going for them as well...but Tampa does those things better with better talent...
The difference now is the Habs have learned how to play defense..and have found a true sniper...but they are still crazy far behind the talent level of Tampa...
So how does Montreal find their way to a parade?
Against Vegas I picked Montreal because I believed their style played into the one Achilles heal Vegas had. The Knights forwards had shown in the last two playoffs that they could be frustrated by a great goalie performance and their forwards could all go EXTREMELY cold at the same time.
THAT is exactly what happened in the series. Were it not for Pietrangelo’s scoring the series would have been even worse for Vegas.
Tampa doesn’t have that issue, and what’s worse for Montreal is Tampa has learned how to play shutdown hockey and win 1-0 games.
So how does Montreal have a shot here?
Tampa’s Achilles heal, if they have one, is teams that swarm, work incredibly hard, and fast, and throw EVERYTHING at the net. This is how Columbus beat them two years ago, how the Jackets almost beat them in the bubble last summer and how Florida and the Islanders gave them VERY tough 7 game series.
Montreal plays that game too, but Montreal has something that Columbus, Florida and the Islanders don’t have: Price.
Carey Price scares teams. Honestly, if Florida got the kind of play they got from Spencer Knight in game 7 from game 1 the Panthers would have eliminated the Bolts.
Vazy is a hell of a goalie, but the kind of goals he allows are almost always unconventional shots or weird goals. Florida got to him a lot. It can be done. Montreal will need to throw everything at the net and crash the net to win.
However...
The saying goes “Hard work wins over talent, but hard work with talent is unstoppable.” That is where Tampa can get to you. They work...Montreal may be able to shut down the snipers, but that’s not all they will need to do. The Gourde/Gaudreau line will be Tampa’s key to this series. Montreal has yet to face a team with a third line with that level of skill.
Be amazed..
Montreal has one AMAZING stat that keeps making me wants to pick them... In 16 games in these playoffs, do you know how many goals they have given up in the first period? The answer later...
EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN...
As I always say...you will never go wrong in the playoffs basing your pick off of two factors: Goaltending and Special teams. We have one of the best goalie matches ever here...But Price gets the slight nod because...And when one of the best ever is looking at his one true shot at solidifying himself next to Plante, Dryden, and Roy that means a lot.. Price can win a Cup...and with the way the Habs had been trending over the last 5 years that probably feels unreal to him.
As for special teams....WOW...There may have never been a better clash of titans.
The Bolts are scoring power play goals at greater than 1 in 3 attempts. In the playoffs I would venture a guess that NO team at that efficiency has ever went home empty doing that.
Habs have killed of 30 straight penalties. An entire game worth of Penalties. In fact, they have scored 2 shorties in that span.
In hockey when great offense meets great defense, usually great defense holds the edge. Scoring is hard.
The Habs key is getting a lead, creating teams that become desperate and then finding Caulfield alone on a break the other way. Can Montreal get out front of Tampa though?
So that stat from before...how many first period goals has Montreal scored in the playoffs? The answer is 3. THREE. That number is truly staggering. That equates to on only allowing one first period goal in every five+ games. That’s basically 1 first period goal per series.
My pick..
So... as positive as this all feels towards Montreal, the Lightning know Carey Price way better than Vegas did. These teams are no strangers to each other...And Tampa can play any style at the highest level. They are way better than Vegas at every position.
So it’s close. And I will say what I said about Toronto v Montreal AND Vegas v Montreal. The Canadiens either lose in 5 or win on 7. Actually I will change that a bit> Montreal either wins in 6 or loses in 4.
But yea...I have to pick one.
As positive all this is sounding you must be thinking, “Ek is picking Montreal....”
Well Tampa is not Vegas or Toronto... Tampa has more depth and more talent than anyone else by a lot. They also have more confidence and know how to win in more ways..They also know Carey Price way more than Vegas and know how to beat him. They aren’t going to be intimidated.
In the Toronto and Vegas series I said the same thing. Montreal would either lose in 5 or win in 7....and I feel almost the same way about this series. After tonight, we will have a very good idea about things. Every series has its own feeling. Montreal needs to grab that away in the first two games...
So I will go differently than “Lose in 5 or win in 7.” The Canadiens will win in 6 or lose in 4.
MY feeling....and that’s all it is...The Cup comes home to Canada. Montreal in 6.
Coming up...RUMORS A PLENTY..Tonight, late...a full Chart Update...Marc Andre Fleury added...
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