|
Myopia is not your friend |
|
|
|
|
|
Now that I have introduced myself to the hockeybuzz community and set forth a general history of where I believe Preds nation has been and how we are where we are, it is time to lose the short sightedness and set forth a plan for ultimate success. All greats, whether it be companies, individuals, or for our purposes, sports teams, have experienced a period of tribulations that cause the entire framework of their founding to be questioned. This is where the Preds find themselves. We’ve flirted with success just enough to keep the aspirations of next year being our year alive. I do not believe it is time to blow it all up, but it is time to reassess and take a step back to find our true character as opposed to looking at others to mimic their success. History is always written by the victors, and the silent history of those outside the precipice remains in the tombs of unknown stories. Sadly, for sports, the unknown stories rise from the grave in the disdain of the all-knowing fans.
I ended the previous article with a variety of questions and received feedback that the previous article could amount to as many as 6 or 7 within one. As a result, this article, and future articles if granted the opportunity, will focus on one particular subject. Yet my writing naturally jumps around, so it will inevitably constitute a broad singularity . . . but one question cannot simply be answered in one way.
I’d angle the Preds to build and not tear down. You may be asking how I differentiate the two because one may think that in order to build there must naturally be a tearing down. However, I do not see the two being directly correlated. Preds management under Poile have had an impeccable track record for finding and developing young talent and ideally waiting until the perfect time to call them up to Nashville after considerable development time in Milwaukee. Think the growth of some of Nashville’s best of more recent years: Timonen, Weber, Josi, Rinne. What do they all have in common? Well, Timonen mentored Weber, who mentored Josi (and Jones), who would then ideally mentor Fabbro and Carrier. Not to mention a rising star in Sam Girard (still not over losing him) and now hopefully we see David Farrance enter the fray more soon. Second, we are all familiar with the close bond between Rinne and Saros.
Expansion
The Expansion draft rules for the Kraken will be the same as they were for the Vegas . . . I know, this sucks, but that expansion fee talks. Better yet, Vegas is exempt. Anyways, the relevant rules here are as follows:
There are two options for teams:
(1) 8 Skaters and 1 Goalie; OR
(2) 7 Forwards 3 Defensemen and 1 Goalie.
CapFriendly has a fun tool to play around with if you’d like here: https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle It’s quite addicting.
Fan Poll courtesy of CapFriendly = 8 Skaters, 1 Goalie Approach
Johansen
Duchene
Forsberg
Arvidsson
Josi
Ellis
Ekholm
Fabbro
Saros
This list is not surprising as they directly correlate with the most jerseys sold, I don’t have the numbers behind this statement, but makes enough sense to me to state it.
My Picks: 8 Skaters, 1 Goalie (But the Preds way is keep all the D, well it’s time to build!)
Johansen
(Yes, I am bias, but I’ve loved his play and like my previous article stated when he’s on he’s on. His size and skill still make him a strong number 1 center. I’m optimistic his recent struggles and then playoff success this year has turned the page for him to become a leader.)
Forsberg
(Need I explain…? Closest thing to a true goal scorer we’ve ever had. Granted he hasn’t been doing much of that lately, but could you imagine the production without him? Hard pass on realizing that possibility)
Sissons
(Excellent contract. Has term but at a manageable price of $2.8m. Very smart player. Not flashy but can play every facet of the game. He has lots of experience and has stepped up when asked. Remember, our number 1 center in the Finals and the hat trick against Anaheim? Dude can play and I won’t let him go on such a friendly deal.)
Kunin
(Another friendly deal, although he will be an RFA next summer he really started to catch his stride at the backend of the year. Strong playoff performance just couldn’t bury the puck when we needed it. At 23, he is still on the climb up to his prime. We have to stop giving up on young kids who are developing a bit slower than expected. Kunin is a horse I’m willing to bet on.)
Josi
(No explanation needed. He’s a leader and this is his team. Let him be the light that carries the team out of the dark age. Rarely has an off night. Plus, he has a NMC if anyone cares. Be my guest to convince me he should waive and the Preds should ask for it)
Fabbro
(One of the smartest players on the ice. This is what a few friends of mine who have played with him have said. He seems to always be a step ahead mentally. Sure, his skill may not be quite there, but it’s always easier to teach crossovers with Angela down at the Sportsplex than teach someone how to read the game.)
Carrier
(Incredible young talent. Very impressed with his playoff performance. Not always there yet, but his hockey sense is top notch. I’m excited for his growth. Partner him with Josi and I think we have another mentorship that can grow this kid into a stud on the backend. Let’s get the Preds back to having the D that brought envy to the league.)
Ekholm
(I thought long and hard about this pick. But with one more year left on his contract, letting him go for cheap is a tough pill to swallow, especially at the flood of rumors he was subject to last deadline. I’d rather wager on him continuing the year he had last year, and this would provide us with a few options: (1) re-sign him next summer, (2) trade him for value to a contender at the deadline, (3) or let him go through our choice and not an arbitrary pick up from an expansion team. I like options, and I think Ekholm gives us more options than Ellis to build and not completely tear down.
Saros
(My concerns from the last article aside, Preds need a goalie and they aren’t protecting Pekka. We shall see where this new Finnish train takes us. I’m a big Ingram and Askarov fan so I like that combo down the line, but that doesn’t help us here.)
So…there you have it. I opted for the 8 Skater, 1 Goalie approach. Some big names are left off the list, to whom the major ones I will address below. I can’t anticipate this list shocking many, but it could strike a nerve with some fan favorites. However, this is how I find one builds without tearing down. You keep a core, but a core where value and potential are still there to (1) actually produce, and (2) develop the new core to hit the ground running sooner rather than later. A complete blowup leaves young talent potentially developing bad habits that keeps you in the hole that does nothing but become deeper and deeper.
Honorable Mentions but Exposure is Good
*Arvidsson
(In the first edition of this article prior to publication, I had this long paragraph analyzing Arvy and rationalizing why he should not be protected and offloading him would be an advised decision . . . Well, he has been traded to the LA Kings for a 2021 2nd Round Pick and a 2022 3rd Round Pick so there’s that. I like the move. But if you read my first article you know how my track record for liking trades has gone . . .)
Duchene
(Curiosity killed the cat. Poile has had his eyes on this guy for years and finally got him with a long-term deal at free agency. But did the curiosity that existed years prior kill the cat of today? Well, as I stated above, I’ve always been partial to Johansen as opposed to Duchene. Nothing against Duchene, but it seems like his signing was more of a long-term infatuation as opposed to having a necessary position for him to fit into the model, yes, I know he was acquired under Lavy’s offensive style, but we saw how that went. Even more so now is that Hynes’ system is bigger and more physical, hence the Arvidsson trade as well, in my opinion. He’s a great guy and an incredible talent, but to solve the age-old expansion debate between Johansen and Duchene, give me the bigger and stronger center who, despite not always being consistent, has proven his worth when he’s on as opposed to an incredibly talented forward whose name may, just perhaps, give him more credit than due as his career has been, well consistently average. I’ll take the flyer on Johansen returning to his 2017 playoff run form, knowing it’s deep down there somewhere. I’ve yet to be convinced otherwise, so be my guest.)
Ellis
(This is a tough one. He seems to have lost his touch lately. Getting slower, no longer the dominant force he was before and the young stud we remember from leading the point for Team Canada and Windsor. I still have faith, but this one is on the edge for me. He’s under contract until he’s 37. If he's slow at 30, then well 37 doesn’t seem to look good, unless we suddenly get some Benjamin Button stuff going on).
Jarnkrok
(Don’t really have all that much to say here. As I’ve stated previously, he never does anything great and never does anything detrimental. He’s a good guy, seems to stick to himself and hang with his fellow Swedes on the team. But I’d rather have Sissons and Kunin for depth and upside potential, and if any of you can convince me that Jarnkrok should stay over Joey or Forsberg, well I’m interested in your thought process to keep it cordial . . .)
Cousins
(Love the grit, but similar to what I said above for Jarnkrok, convince me he should stay over any of the names listed, and I’ll be open to, uh, listening?)
Grimaldi
(I feel if I left him off my analysis, I’d get at least a few yelling What about Rocco?! So here you go yelling person. Absolutely love this guy and his energy. One of the nicest people I have ever met, along with Granlund, genuinely two incredible people. But using a protection spot on Rocco simply cannot be justified in the business of hockey.)
UFAs, The Risk of Unrequited
When I shared my initial protection list with a few friends, a few of them mentioned Granlund and one mentioned Haula. Both of these players I would very much enjoy keeping around. As Granlund has been the best performer under Hynes and Haula was on another level in the series with Carolina. Love the fight he had. But let me explain why their names are not above. So for simplicity’s sake, Seattle will have 48 hours to speak with UFAs prior to any other team and they may agree to a deal and then that signing would count as the expansion pick from the previous team. Or Seattle can draft a UFA without signing them, and risk losing that UFA signing with someone else. To prove this point more explicitly, Ovechkin is a current UFA. If you think he’s going to Seattle, well ok I’ll let you think that and oh while you’re at it, pass the doobie. But him still not being signed is Exhibit A of not freaking out about the published expansion list directly. A lot goes into it. If a UFA isn’t signed, they also do not need to be protected in the list and may simply be signed later.
As for the risk of unrequited love, if any of the pending UFAs want to venture elsewhere, then good riddance. Was fun while it lasted, but the current core group that I am advocating we keep, in conjunction with the young talent that is coming up whom the core may mentor is a strong recipe for potential success and growth to welcome a new generation, while also taking advantage of those who remain from that Cup run. There really is still hope for this group.
In Case You Didn’t Know
Young players such as Eeli Tolvanen, Phillip Tomasino, Yakov Trenin, Matthew Olivier, and David Farrance, a few notable names that are likely familiar to the average Preds fan, are not eligible to be drafted in the expansion draft so justification for one or the other is not needed here. I genuinely like all 5 of these guys and am excited to see their growth. Very different players, but from skill to depth, we could potentially be on the upward trend before you know it! But then again, next year is our year, right?
P.S.
Stay tuned for the next article! This is a blast and I welcome any and all feedback, good or bad. Hopefully I’ll have the opportunity to speak with you all on a more official and consistent schedule and to have an account to interact with your comments on future articles. Talk soon and Go Preds!
Clay Brewer
Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»