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Taking a chance on Nolan Patrick |
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On Saturday July 17, the Golden Knights pulled the trigger on a three-way trade that brought in #2 overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, Nolan Patrick.
Here is what the trade broke down as:
Step 1:
To the Philadelphia Flyers: Ryan Ellis
To the Nashville Predators: Phillipe Myers and Nolan Patrick
Step 2:
To the Nashville Predators: Cody Glass
To the Las Vegas Golden Knights: Nolan Patrick
In the shadow of a massive win for the Flyers was two young men being traded with the hope of reclaiming something.
For Cody Glass, he has some areas of his game where he needs to improve drastically. His skating isn’t where it needs to be, but at 22 there is still time. With 22 points in 66 NHL games, there is lots of room to improve offensively. I really liked his zone presence. He needs to get his arms around his skating, but it’s fair to say Glass is the safer of the two former 2017 first round picks..
As for the player that the Golden Knights acquired.
When he was drafted at #2 overall in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, he was compared to such players as Eric Staal and Ryan Getzlaf. A big center that won’t get pushed around and knows how to drive possession. Unfortunately, you won’t find many people making those comparisons in 2021. At this point in his career and with the setbacks he’s experienced, the primary comparison is Patrik Stefan. Here are some similarities:
-Stefan was also a high pick. 1st overall in 1999. Coincidence had Nolan being born during Stefan’s draft year.
-Both barely missed the cut-off date (September 15) for the draft and entered the NHL as 18 year olds. This is a factor for some teams, because they want their high draft pick to step in immediately, and that extra year can go a long way.
-Both started out with similar trajectories. Stefan had 25 and 31 points in his first year. 30 and 31 for Patrick.
-Cracks began to show in their third seasons. Stefan missed time with concussions and was sent down to the AHL for the first time in his career. Nolan had a much worse third year, which we will get to. Head injuries and concussion issues plague both of their lives.
-Both play a power center game when they’re at their best.
That is just a glancing comparison of the two. I sincerely hope Nolan Patrick’s career does not turn out the same way. People may be surprised to read that Patrik Stefan is only 40 years old. His career ended in 2008 when he was 27. Concussions were his primary reason for retiring so early.
Suffice to say both have had rough goes at the beginning of their careers. Here’s a closer look at Nolan Patrick’s career to date:
In his draft year, Patrick missed significant time with two separate hernias. Despite that, most scouts had more than enough viewings to still be sold on him. As an 18 year old, he was seen as a high hockey IQ center with very few flaws in his game. He had a strong game along the boards, but his best offensive moments were off the rush. He excelled at dealing the puck as well as finishing while in the 5th gear. Born four days after the cut-off for the NHL Entry Draft, Patrick was one of the older draft eligible players in 2017. A small detail, but important to players looking to step right into the NHL.
Patrick started his career without too many setbacks posting 30 and 31 point campaigns in 17-18 and 18-19 respectively. He missed a total of 19 games in that time, but that wasn’t anything to be concerned about.
Then things got bad for Nolan. He was diagnosed with a migraine disorder that not only took him off the roster for a whopping 17 months, but also severely diminished his quality of life.
I can only imagine the frustration of dealing with that. The overwhelming duress of the disorder has to be hard to explain to the layman. All the while, stress and anxiety builds as you know your career is losing momentum with each passing game day. Answering the same questions to reporters every time they interview you.
“When will you be back?” “Is there a timeline for your return?” “Have you made an progress with your migraines?”
The last two years have been rough.
To his credit, none of this stuff is under his control, and he is doing his best to claw his way back. Last year he played 52 games. Almost the entirety of the shortened season. The results are what you would expect for a kid missing that much time.
Nolan Patrick 2020-21: 52GP 4G 5A 9Pts +/-:-30
That -30 is daunting, but he is not as bad as the numbers reflect. He has proven in the past that he can play a solid 200 foot game, and with more consistency and structure he has a chance to get his 5v5 differential back on track.
Enter the 2021-2022 season. How does this kid fit with the Golden Knights?
The top six is basically set in stone, so Nolan Patrick will slot into the bottom six for the time being. Most likely he will beat Brett Howden for the fourth line center spot. If he is outplayed by Brett Howden — Let’s just assume that isn’t happening.
Patrick can handle bottom six responsibilities and will likely have a few moments where his soft hands and high hockey IQ shine in the offensive zone, but I wouldn’t expect much.
There’s a few factors that could lead to a bounce back for Nolan:
First and foremost, the guy is 23. He has time to get things back on track.
Vegas has a carousel of centers. Particularly in the playoffs. Last year Nicolas Roy, who played 4th line RW for much of the season, played an entire series on the first line due to injuries. With the mileage this squad has on it; no one can count out Patrick getting time in the top 6. If Patrick plucks away and gets re-accustomed to the pace, he might earn a spot where he can put up decent numbers. Which brings us to the next point.
Betting against players bouncing back in Vegas has become something of a fool’s gambit. If any team can bring this kid’s career back from the brink: it’s the Las Vegas Golden Knights. I will leave you with a quote from the timeless Fox Moulder regarding Nolan Patrick’s potential career recovery:
“I want to believe.”
Thanks for reading,
Trevor Neufeld
Blogger • 
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