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Allen:Math says the Isles have playoff hope, but odds aren't good;Wed Buzz

December 15, 2021, 2:27 PM ET [27 Comments]
Eklund
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Was talking about the New York Islanders with someone who knows them well and I asked whether he thought Lou Lamoriello had given up trying to add a trade acquisition to bolster the defense.

"I don't think Lamoriello ever gives up," he said.

We both laughed.

The only truth we have about the Islanders situation is that Lamoriello isn't contemplating a shift to rebuilding or anything close to that strategy. That's not his style. What I've been hearing is that GMs looking for defensive help, including Lamoriello, haven't found many available. And those who are available are either less than desirable or their team's want a staggering return.

Clearly, the Islanders need a defensive boost. You can't trade away Devon Toews one offseason and then Nick Leddy the next and then lose Ryan Pulock to injury and not expect a decline in the team's defensive performance level.





Pulock's value to the Islanders has grown every season. He's four weeks into an injury that was supposed to keep him out of the lineup four to six weeks.

But the Islanders' epic 11-game losing streak really wasn't about the defense. This was a team wide failure helped along by a grueling 13-game road trip and a COVID-19 surge that ripped through the New York dressing room.

If you have watched this team from the start of the season, it's been hard to remember that they were considered one of the preseason favorites. We've watched them perform well in the post season for the past two seasons. Barry Trotz's system is made for the postseason.

But everything has gone wrong this season, particularly with the offense.

Zach Parise put in his usual amount of the work, but has only scored his first goal the other night. Josh Bailey only has 14 shots on the season, and four came in the last game. Kyle Palmieri, signed a four-year deal for $20 million and he only has one goal. Every time he shoots it seems to be right at the goalie.

Brock Nelson leads the team in scoring with nine goals and he missed seven games with injury
The power play was comically bad early, although it has looked sharp lately.Oliver Wahlstrom has also been hot lately with eight points in his past five games.

But the Islanders still rank 30th with an average of 2.17 goals per game. You aren't going to be a playoff team scoring like that.

That's the question that Islanders fans want to know: What are the Islanders chances of making the playoff?

The answer is that it is unlikely that they will, but not out of the question. According to playoffstatus.com, if the Islanders play .680 hockey the rest of the way -- that's 40 wins out of 59 games -- they have a four percent chances of finishing first, a 24% chance of second and a 43% chance of third in the Metropolitan Division.

The Islanders won't do that if they play the way they played earlier in the season. But here is some facts to ponder: The Islanders were 21st in scoring last season and got the job done because of defense and goaltending. But they averaged 2.71 goals per game. They certainly have the capability of reaching that again.

The .680 is a tough ask, especially in Metropolitan Division. That is why we say the playoffs are unlikely. But 41 wins in 59 games is doable for a quality team and Islanders have showed they can be hard to play against.

If they can start playing consistently strong defense, there is hope. But the Islanders need some help. That's why Lamoriello is probably still looking in the trade market for a defenseman.
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