Update, Monday 1 pm: The Sabres' next two games (tonight and Thursday) against the Blue Jackets and have been postponed due to Covid-related issues. Last week the team announced its game against Colorado on Wednesday is also postponed.
The Sabres opened their season on October 14 against the Montreal Canadiens. Back on November 14th, we took a look at the Sabres statistics from the first month of the season. That first month brought a lot more fun than expected, with Craig Anderson and the Sabres jumping out to a surprisingly hot start. The second month of the season was considerably more chaotic as the goaltending situation suffered numerous blows when Anderson got hurt and Dustin Tokarski was placed on the Covid protocol list. It was nonetheless an interesting month, so let’s get into some numbers.
The team went 4-9-3 between November 14th and December 17th which is somewhere between bad and terrible. That would look even worse had the record not been bolstered somewhat by a good end to the second month. The Sabres have gotten points in their last four games and compiled a 2-0-2 record since December 11. That turnaround has largely coincided with the emergence of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. With that in mind, let’s see some goaltending numbers from the second month of the season (Nov. 14-Dec. 17):
Dustin Tokarski: (2-2-1), .897 SV%
Aaron Dell (0-4-0), .884 SV%
Malcolm Subban (0-1-1), .876 SV%
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2-2-1), .939 SV%
One of these things is definitely not like the others. UPL has been terrific, and he’s made an enormous difference for the Sabres since being recalled from the Rochester Americans following Tokarski’s Covid diagnosis. The Sabres had lost five games in a row prior to his recall and lost a further two more once he assumed the starter’s role, even if he played well in those two. Since then, the Sabres are 2-2-1 in their last five with UPL and Subban tending the crease. It’ll be fascinating to see if the Sabres send UPL back down to Rochester now that Tokarski is set to come back from his illness.
Enough about the goalies, though. Let’s take a look at some forwards:
Kyle Okposo (3g, 9a) in 16 GP.
Simply put, Okposo’s late-career renaissance has been nothing short of spectacular. He’s often the best forward any given night and at 33-years-old, he’s displayed the footspeed of a man much younger which has been an absolute surprise. He came flying out of the gate this season, but with his age being what it is, it seemed like he would start to tail off. That hasn’t been the case. Okposo is leading the team in points, and perhaps more importantly, he’s providing veteran mentorship to the young cadre of Sabres’ forwards. As always, Okposo’s defensive acumen has been top-tier, too.
Dylan Cozens (5g, 3a) in 16 GP
Cozens has undoubtedly taken a step in the second month of the year. He’s been much more aggressive and his willingness to take the puck hard to the net rather than look for a drop pass when entering the offensive zone has been noticeable. He very nearly won the game against the Minnesota Wild in overtime as he drove the net hard and threaded the puck through the wickets of Cam Talbot. Unfortunately, the puck squirted off to the side rather than finding the back of the net. At 6’3” and 189 pounds, Cozens is still something of a string bean, but when he fills out his frame fully, he should be a dynamic power forward.
Vinnie Hinostroza (4g, 3a) in 15 GP:
Hinostroza may end up netting the Sabres a third-round pick at the trade deadline. His analytics look solid and he’s putting up nice scoring numbers for a depth forward. He has been a positive add for this team, and he’ll be a solid pickup for a playoff team come trade deadline time.
Tage Thompson (5g, 3a) in 16 GP:
They don’t count shootout goals in the stats, although maybe they should. He scored an absolute beauty to seal the deal in St. Paul last week. Thompson’s offensive numbers have cooled a bit over the past month but he’s still playing a really nice 200-foot game for the Sabres. He looks like he can be a long-term third line center with second-line center potential if he can generate a little bit more on the playmaking side of things. We all know he has a rocket shot. Now he needs to work on setting up his linemates.
Casey Mittelstadt (1g, 0a) 3GP:
Mittelstadt’s season has been the largest disappointment of the year from a development perspective. Hampered by injuries, Mittelstadt has only appeared in parts of four games and now he’s out for the foreseeable future. It’s a real shame that the Sabres won’t get an honest look at the young forward to see if he can be a top-6 centerman for this team going forward.
Now for some thoughts on the defense:
Mark Pysyk:
Plus/minus is a flawed stat. It can be easily influenced by empty net situations and it’s not usually indicative of performance. That said, Mark Pysyk is the only player on this team to have played more than 12 games while having a positive integer in the plus/minus column. In 30 games, Pysyk has a +3 rating with 6 points. I know I talk about this guy too much. He just doesn’t get the credit he deserves for being a solid defenseman. Like Hinostroza, Pysyk should fetch a good return at the trade deadline if the Sabres aren’t interested in re-signing him (which they should).
Henri Jokiharu/Rasmus Dahlin:
It’s impossible to talk about one without talking about the other. Rasmus Dahlin has 3 points in his last three games and he looks like a man reborn since being reunited with Jokiharju. The advanced stats look pretty bad for both of them, so there’s room for improvement on the defensive side of things for sure. Joker has played 21+ minutes in each of his past five games as Don Granato has leaned on his young defensive pairing to generate some offense.
Colin Miller:
Miller has been going through a rough spell over the past 5 games with a -4. As a big-bodied offensive defenseman (and a right-shot d-man at that), Miller should generate plenty of interest at the trade deadline. Like Pysyk, the Sabres should at least gauge Miller’s interest in coming back to the club next year. He can slot in nicely on the second or third pair.
Closing thoughts:
The second month was straight-up awful during the early going. The Sabres were borderline unwatchable with Dell between the pipes. The transition to UPL and Subban has made the team interesting again in another lost season. Where the Sabres go from here in terms of goalie play will be fascinating.
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